000
FXUS61 KOKX 181807
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
107 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes well to the north today and tonight, sending
a weakening cold front into the region early Monday. High
pressure builds in Monday and remains into Wednesday, then
weakens Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak frontal system
approaches from the west. Low pressure will then approach from
the southwest Thursday night into Friday, and pass south and
east of Long Island Friday into Friday night. A weak clipper low
may approach in its wake on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast continues to remain on track. No updates to the
forecast are needed at this time.
While low pressure will be tracking from north of the Great
Lakes into southeastern Canada today, with the low well to the
north and little associated moisture, the area will remain dry.
The only impacts from the low will be a few clouds to the north,
and a strong and gusty southwest to west flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The low over southeastern Canada early this evening will be
moving into the Canadian Maritimes tonight and send and
weakening cold front toward the region. The front may move into
the northern portions of the region early Monday before
dissipating as deep layered height rises will be across the
region as a ridge builds to the west and an upper trough lifts
into Canada. Zonal flow will continue late Monday through
Tuesday as surface high pressure builds over the area Monday and
remains Tuesday. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast mostly follows NBM as it captures the overall trends in
global model guidance during this time. Modeling initially depicts a
sfc high pressure ridge along the East Coast, with an offshore storm
passing well to the SE. Then heights aloft begin to fall Wed night
into Thu as a closed low moves SE into Ontario, with an associated
weak frontal system approaching from the west, and no more than
slight chance PoP NW of NYC during this time.
A srn stream impulse should also partially phase with northern
stream troughing over the Northeast mid to late week, with a sfc low
traversing the Plains and OH/TN valleys Wed night-Thu, then moving
into the Mid Atlantic region and passing offshore Thu night-Fri
while slowly intensifying. Thermal profiles support a period of snow
inland Thu night-Fri morning and mainly rain along the coast,
changing to a light to moderate rain throughout on Fri, with NBM 60-
70% PoP capped at 50% as with the previous forecast.
As the sys pulls away to the E Fri night, precip could end as snow
or a rain/snow mix. Fcst carries a 20% PoP for snow showers into
daytime Sat as some of the guidance shows a trailing nrn stream vort
max and weak sfc clipper low approaching.
Temps should be near normal on Wed, trending to a few degrees above
normal Thu-Fri with the approach of the weak frontal sys and wave of
low pressure. Temps a little below normal expected on Sat after
passage of this system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes well to the north tonight with high pressure
building in on Monday.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. SW winds
near 15-20 kt with gusts near 25-30 kt will subside this evening
and become less frequent. Gusts near 25 kt early this evening
will be decreasing closer to 20 kt mid to late evening for some
terminals while other terminals will have gusts diminish. All
gusts diminish overnight.
Winds overall tonight will be 10-15 kt and will be more
westerly, lowering to 5-10 kt overnight. Winds pick back up to
10-15 kt Monday morning and become more NW. Some gusts up to 20
kt will be possible Monday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts could occur 1 to 3 hours later than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon through Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Possible rain at KSWF with MVFR possible, otherwise
VFR. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Friday: Possible rain/snow with MVFR to IFR possible. NW gusts
near 20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gale warning continues E of Moriches Inlet for this afternoon
and evening, with and SCA elsewhere into late tonight, as a
strong and gusty westerly flow prevails S of low pressure
tracking from the Great Lakes region into SE Canada.
Once gales diminish on the ocean, SCA cond will remain into
Monday morning. On the remainder of the waters SCA conditions
will be ending west to east late tonight/toward Monday morning
as the low moves into the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure
builds into the forecast waters.
Sub advisory conditions are expected on all the waters Monday
afternoon through Wednesday. While winds from late Wed night
into Thu night should remain sub-SCA, incoming swell from an
offshore storm could build ocean seas to 5-7 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues through the week. QPF Thu night-Fri night
ranges from 1/2 to 3/4 inch.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-355.
Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BR/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET