000
FXUS61 KOKX 182025
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
325 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure passes well to the north tonight, sending a weakening
cold front into the region early Monday. High pressure builds in
Monday into Tuesday over New England on Tuesday, before
shifting offshore Wednesday. Frontal system then approaches from
the southwest, impacting the region Thursday into Friday.
Behind it, high pressure returns for the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The low over southeastern Canada this evening will be moving into
the Canadian Maritimes tonight and send a weakening cold front
toward the region. Winds start to weaken tonight as the pressure
gradient weakens due to the low to the north tracking farther away.
With dry air in place, cloud coverage will remain low. Some cloud
cover may be possible along the northern fringes of the area closer
to the low and weakening cold front. Some radiational cooling may
take place late in the night as winds weaken and skies remain clear.
Lows will be in the 20s for most tonight with low-30s in the NYC
metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The front may move into northern portions of the region early Monday
before dissipating. Height rises continue on Monday with zonal flow
aloft as surface high pressure builds in from the south and
southwest. Temperatures will be just a few degrees below seasonal
normals with highs in the mid/upper-30s. Northwest winds weaken on
Monday with lighter winds Monday night allowing for more radiational
cooling to take place under clear skies.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure and ridging aloft build over the Northeast to start
the period. The surface high tracks off the New England coast into
Wednesday, with onshore flow setting up into late week.
Northern stream shortwave dives south into the Great Lakes Thursday
as an upper trough over Canada amplifies. This energy may phase with
a weaker southern stream wave as it all progresses east. Global
ensemble guidance continues to highlight various solutions, though
the trend appears to be more frontal and progressive than a nearby
bombing nearby. Increased PoPs to low likelies (55%) for a period
late Thursday into early Friday, though still some timing
discrepancies to resolve over the next several days. Limited cold
air preceding this will make it difficult to achieve snow to the
coast. Depending on the synoptic setup, thermal profiles would allow
the potential for a bit of snow, or a rain/snow mix, across the
interior at the onset. Even here though, a change to plain rain
appears most likely. Conditions dry behind this system late Friday
as high pressure begins to build in. Coldest day in the period looks
to be Tuesday, highs in the 30s, before trending a few degrees above
normal Thursday and Friday. Continued to lean with mostly NBM to
capture consensus.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Low pressure passes well to the north tonight with high pressure
building in on Monday.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. SW winds
near 15-20 kt with gusts near 25-30 kt will subside this evening and
become less frequent. Some peaks gusts up to 35 kt are possible
before 23Z.
Gusts near 25 kt early this evening will be decreasing closer to 20
kt mid to late evening for some terminals while other terminals will
have gusts diminish. All gusts diminish overnight.
Winds overall tonight will be 10-15 kt and will be more
westerly, lowering to 5-10 kt overnight. Winds pick back up to
10-15 kt Monday morning and become more NW. Some gusts up to 20
kt will be possible Monday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts could occur 1 to 3 hours later than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon through Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Possible rain at KSWF with MVFR possible, otherwise
VFR. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Friday: Possible rain/snow with MVFR to IFR possible. NW gusts
near 20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Gale warning continues E of Moriches Inlet for this evening, with
and SCA elsewhere into late tonight, as a strong and gusty westerly
flow prevails S of low pressure tracking from the Great Lakes region
into SE Canada.
As low-end gales diminish on the ocean tonight, SCA conditions will
remain into Monday morning. On the remainder of the waters SCA
conditions will be ending west to east late tonight/toward Monday
morning as the low moves into the Canadian Maritimes and high
pressure builds into the forecast waters.
Sub advisory conditions are then expected through Wednesday.
Incoming swells from an offshore storm may build ocean seas above 5
ft Wednesday night, likely remaining elevated into the start of the
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic issues through the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-355.
Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BR/DR