discussion on 2024-02-18

000
FXUS61 KOKX 182348
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
648 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure passes well to the north tonight, sending a weakening
cold front into the region early Monday. High pressure builds in
Monday into Tuesday over New England, shifting offshore Wednesday.
Frontal system then approaches from the southwest, impacting
the region Thursday into Friday. Behind it, high pressure
returns for the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast remains on track this evening. Winds continue to lower
as gusts gradually coming to an end. Previous discussion
follows.

The low over southeastern Canada will be moving into the
Canadian Maritimes tonight and send a weakening cold front
toward the region. Winds start to weaken tonight as the pressure
gradient weakens due to the low to the north tracking farther
away. With dry air in place, cloud coverage will remain low.
Some cloud cover may be possible along the northern fringes of
the area closer to the low and weakening cold front. Some
radiational cooling may take place late in the night as winds
weaken and skies remain clear. Lows will be in the 20s for most
tonight with low-30s in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The front may move into northern portions of the region early Monday
before dissipating. Height rises continue on Monday with zonal flow
aloft as surface high pressure builds in from the south and
southwest. Temperatures will be just a few degrees below seasonal
normals with highs in the mid/upper-30s. Northwest winds weaken on
Monday with lighter winds Monday night allowing for more radiational
cooling to take place under clear skies.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure and ridging aloft build over the Northeast to start
the period. The surface high tracks off the New England coast into
Wednesday, with onshore flow setting up into late week.

Northern stream shortwave dives south into the Great Lakes Thursday
as an upper trough over Canada amplifies. This energy may phase with
a weaker southern stream wave as it all progresses east. Global
ensemble guidance continues to highlight various solutions, though
the trend appears to be more frontal and progressive than a nearby
bombing nearby. Increased PoPs to low likelies (55%) for a period
late Thursday into early Friday, though still some timing
discrepancies to resolve over the next several days. Limited cold
air preceding this will make it difficult to achieve snow to the
coast. Depending on the synoptic setup, thermal profiles would allow
the potential for a bit of snow, or a rain/snow mix, across the
interior at the onset. Even here though, a change to plain rain
appears most likely. Conditions dry behind this system late Friday
as high pressure begins to build in. Coldest day in the period looks
to be Tuesday, highs in the 30s, before trending a few degrees above
normal Thursday and Friday. Continued to lean with mostly NBM to
capture consensus.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR as low pressure passes well to the north tonight. High
pressure builds in on Monday.

WSW-SW gusts will continue to diminish this evening with just a
few gusts 20-25 kt possible through 02z. WSW-SW winds around 10
kt are expected through the first half of the night before winds
veer to the WNW overnight. Outlying terminals likely fall below
10 kt.

WNW-NW winds are expected on Monday 10-15 kt. An occasional gust
around 20 kt is possible during the Monday.

Winds overall tonight will be 10-15 kt and will be more
westerly, lowering to 5-10 kt overnight. Winds pick back up to
10-15 kt Monday morning and become more NW. Some gusts up to 20
kt are possible in the morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gust 20-25 kt possible through 02z.

Timing of wind shifts in TAF may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night-Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance rain/snow well NW of NYC and
slight chance rain elsewhere. .

Friday: MVFR or lower possible in rain. Possible rain/snow with
MVFR to IFR possible. S winds becoming NW with gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Converted the Gale Warning on the ocean waters east of Moriches
Inlet to a Small Craft Advisory as winds have been coming down.
A few occasional gale gusts remain possible here early this
evening.

Otherwise, lingering SCA conditions on all waters into early
Monday morning before wind gusts decrease below 25 kt and seas
lower as high pressure builds in.

Sub advisory conditions are then expected through Wednesday.
Incoming swells from an offshore storm may build ocean seas above 5
ft Wednesday night, likely remaining elevated into the start of the
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues through the week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-355.
Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ353.

SYNOPSIS...BR/DR
NEAR TERM...BR/DR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BR/DR