000
FXUS61 KOKX 190219
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
919 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front passes across the region late tonight. High
pressure builds in Monday into Tuesday, before shifting offshore
Wednesday. Frontal system then approaches from the southwest,
impacting the region Thursday into Friday. Behind it, high pressure
returns for the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast on track through the rest of the night. Low pressure
over SE Canada will track towards the Canadian Maritimes
tonight, sending a weak cold front through the region. The
pressure gradient relaxes tonight despite the frontal passage
and winds have dropped off considerably since the afternoon. The
frontal passage may increase winds a bit as they shift to the
NW overnight. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear. Lows will
be in the 20s for most tonight with low-30s in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The front may move into northern portions of the region early
Monday before dissipating. Height rises continue on Monday with
zonal flow aloft as surface high pressure builds in from the
south and southwest. Temperatures will be just a few degrees
below seasonal normals with highs in the mid/upper-30s.
Northwest winds weaken on Monday with lighter winds Monday night
allowing for more radiational cooling to take place under clear
skies.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure and ridging aloft build over the Northeast to
start the period. The surface high tracks off the New England
coast into Wednesday, with onshore flow setting up into late
week.
Northern stream shortwave dives south into the Great Lakes
Thursday as an upper trough over Canada amplifies. This energy
may phase with a weaker southern stream wave as it all
progresses east. Global ensemble guidance continues to highlight
various solutions, though the trend appears to be more frontal
and progressive than a nearby bombing nearby. Increased PoPs to
low likelies (55%) for a period late Thursday into early Friday,
though still some timing discrepancies to resolve over the next
several days. Limited cold air preceding this will make it
difficult to achieve snow to the coast. Depending on the
synoptic setup, thermal profiles would allow the potential for a
bit of snow, or a rain/snow mix, across the interior at the
onset. Even here though, a change to plain rain appears most
likely. Conditions dry behind this system late Friday as high
pressure begins to build in. Coldest day in the period looks to
be Tuesday, highs in the 30s, before trending a few degrees
above normal Thursday and Friday. Continued to lean with mostly
NBM to capture consensus.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR as a weak cold front passes across late tonight. High
pressure then builds in on Monday.
Winds will be SW around 10 kt or less through about 06z. Winds
then veer to the WNW-NW thereafter. Wind speeds should remain
around 10 kt or less through day break. WNW-NW winds are
expected on Monday 10-15 kt. An occasional gust around 20 kt is
possible during the morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts may be off by 1-3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night-Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance rain/snow well NW of NYC and
slight chance rain elsewhere. .
Friday: MVFR or lower possible in rain. Possible rain/snow with
MVFR to IFR possible. S winds becoming NW with gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through tonight.
Otherwise, lingering SCA conditions on all waters into early
Monday morning before wind gusts decrease below 25 kt and seas
lower as high pressure builds in.
Sub advisory conditions are then expected through Wednesday.
Incoming swells from an offshore storm may build ocean seas above 5
ft Wednesday night, likely remaining elevated into the start of the
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues through the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DR
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BR/DR