000
FXUS61 KOKX 190846
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
346 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through Wednesday, then weakens
on Thursday as a frontal system approaches from the west. The
system will impact the area from late Thursday night into
Friday. High pressure will return in its wake for Saturday and
Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure slowly builds in from the NW with a zonal flow aloft.
Sunny with high temperatures slightly below normal. NW winds
diminish tonight and are expected to decouple in many areas outside
of the metropolitan area. Combined with a clear sky, this will
result in strong radiational cooling. Lows will range from the mid
to upper 20s in the city, down to the teens for much of the
interior, and possibly even some single digit readings in the Pine
Barrens region and spots in the northernmost zones.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface ridge axis shifts through during the day Tuesday with slight
ridging aloft. Another sunny day, but a little colder than today
with a more shallow mixing layer due to subsidence and lack of
downsloping winds.

Winds will be onshore Tuesday night, but light. Models show very
shallow moisture advecting in from the local waters. As usual,
NAM is most aggressive in this regard, and resulting low stratus
will probably not arrive as quickly and be as widespread as it
implies. Between this stratus and potentially some cirrus,
radiational cooling might not be as strong this time around, but
there should be enough time for some radiational cooling in
most areas ahead of any cloud cover.

With very shallow low level moisture and forecast soundings showing
enough mixing, whatever low stratus manages to arrive probably
scatters out to some degree during the day on Wednesday. High
temperatures will be generally around 40 - still a little below
normal. Shallow moisture lingers Wednesday night as winds remain
onshore. Low stratus probably returns and becomes a little more
widespread compared to Tuesday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A narrow high pressure ridge along the coast will continue to weaken
and slide east, allowing an upper trough and associated sfc frontal
sys to approach form the west and impact the area Thu night into
Fri. Guidance has trended warmer, suggesting more of a mixed precip
to rain scenario well inland for late Thu night into early Fri
morning, otherwise rain. A wave of low pressure forming along the
front to the west should pass over the area daytime Fri, after which
likely PoP should decrease from W-E Fri afternoon, with only some
lingering chance PoP across ern Long Island/CT early Fri evening.

High pressure and dry wx return on Sat, with a gusty NW flow
ushering in a colder air mass with temps a few degrees below normal.
Fair wx should continue on Sunday as the high builds into the area,
with temps moderating closer to normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR as a weak cold front passes across overnight. High pressure
will then build in daytime Monday.

Mainly W flow 10 kt or less will become NW and increase to 10-15Z
between 12Z-14Z. Winds then likely fall below 10 kt this evening,
from about 21Z-23Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An occasional gust around 20 kt is possible from 13Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late tonight and Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night and Friday: MVFR or lower cond beginning mainly late
at night, with rain becoming likely, possibly beginning as a wintry
mix at the onset at or near KSWF.  NW winds G15-20kt in the
afternoon.

Friday night: Chance of MVFR/rain at KGON, otherwise mainly VFR. NW
winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds will continue to subside through this morning, and are already
prevailing below advisory criteria for most of the waters. Ocean
seas are still elevated, and have therefore extended the SCA east of
Fire Island Inlet to 15z. Seas then prevail below advisory criteria
thereafter as winds remain offshore.

Winds then turn onshore Tuesday afternoon, but remain at 10kt or
less through Tuesday night. East winds 10-15kt for Wednesday, but
not strong enough to push seas above 5 ft.

Incoming swells from an offshore storm should build ocean seas above
5 ft beginning late Wed night and continuing into Fri night. NW
winds could also gust to 25-30 kt Fri afternoon/night, highest
on the ocean waters.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350-
     353.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG