000
FXUS61 KOKX 191448 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
948 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Wednesday, then weakens
on Thursday as a frontal system approaches from the west. The
system will impact the area from late Thursday night into
Friday. High pressure will return in its wake for Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast mainly on track. Gusts to 25 mph this morning,
gradually diminishing through the aft. High temps have been
increased a degree or two based on morning T trend.

Otherwise...high pressure slowly builds in from the NW with a
zonal flow aloft. Sunny with high temperatures near normal.

NW winds diminish tonight and are expected to decouple in many
areas outside of the metropolitan area. Combined with a clear
sky, this will result in strong radiational cooling. Lows will
range from the mid to upper 20s in the city, down to the teens
for much of the interior, and possibly even some single digit
readings in the Pine Barrens region and spots in the
northernmost zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface ridge axis shifts through during the day Tuesday with slight
ridging aloft. Another sunny day, but a little colder than today
with a more shallow mixing layer due to subsidence and lack of
downsloping winds.

Winds will be onshore Tuesday night, but light. Models show very
shallow moisture advecting in from the local waters. As usual,
NAM is most aggressive in this regard, and resulting low stratus
will probably not arrive as quickly and be as widespread as it
implies. Between this stratus and potentially some cirrus,
radiational cooling might not be as strong this time around, but
there should be enough time for some radiational cooling in
most areas ahead of any cloud cover.

With very shallow low level moisture and forecast soundings showing
enough mixing, whatever low stratus manages to arrive probably
scatters out to some degree during the day on Wednesday. High
temperatures will be generally around 40 - still a little below
normal. Shallow moisture lingers Wednesday night as winds remain
onshore. Low stratus probably returns and becomes a little more
widespread compared to Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A narrow high pressure ridge along the coast will continue to weaken
and slide east, allowing an upper trough and associated sfc frontal
sys to approach form the west and impact the area Thu night into
Fri. Guidance has trended warmer, suggesting more of a mixed precip
to rain scenario well inland for late Thu night into early Fri
morning, otherwise rain. A wave of low pressure forming along the
front to the west should pass over the area daytime Fri, after which
likely PoP should decrease from W-E Fri afternoon, with only some
lingering chance PoP across ern Long Island/CT early Fri evening.

High pressure and dry wx return on Sat, with a gusty NW flow
ushering in a colder air mass with temps a few degrees below normal.
Fair wx should continue on Sunday as the high builds into the area,
with temps moderating closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front has passed through the area his morning. High
pressure will build in from the NW into Tuesday.

VFR. NW flow around 10 kt with some gusts up to 20 kt into early
this afternoon, especially at KGON. Winds will likely fall
below 10 kt this evening, from about 21Z-23Z, and veer N
tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An occasional gust around 20 kt is possible through about 19Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday-Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night and Friday: MVFR or lower cond beginning mainly late
at night, with rain becoming likely, possibly beginning as a wintry
mix at the onset at or near KSWF.  NW winds G15-20kt in the
afternoon.

Friday night: Chance of MVFR/rain at KGON, otherwise mainly VFR. NW
winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to subside through this morning, and are already
prevailing below advisory criteria for most of the waters. Seas
then prevail below advisory criteria thereafter as winds remain
offshore.

Winds then turn onshore Tuesday afternoon, but remain at 10kt or
less through Tuesday night. East winds 10-15kt for Wednesday, but
not strong enough to push seas above 5 ft.

Incoming swells from an offshore storm should build ocean seas above
5 ft beginning late Wed night and continuing into Fri night. NW
winds could also gust to 25-30 kt Fri afternoon/night, highest
on the ocean waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG/DW
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG