000
FXUS61 KOKX 191831
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
131 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Wednesday, then weakens
on Thursday as a frontal system approaches from the west. The
system will impact the area from late Thursday night into
Friday. High pressure will return in its wake for Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slowly builds in from the NW with a zonal flow
aloft through tonight. Sunny with high temps topping out near
normal this afternoon, and winds gusts gradually diminishing.
NW winds diminish tonight and are expected to decouple in many
areas outside of the metropolitan area. Combined with a clear
sky, this will result in strong radiational cooling. Lows will
range from the mid to upper 20s in the city, down to the teens
for much of the interior, and possibly even some single digit
readings in the Pine Barrens region and spots in the
northernmost zones.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface ridge axis shifts through during the day Tuesday with slight
ridging aloft. Another sunny day, but a little colder than today
with a more shallow mixing layer due to subsidence and lack of
downsloping winds.
Winds will be onshore Tuesday night, but light. Models show very
shallow moisture advecting in from the local waters. As usual,
NAM is most aggressive in this regard, and resulting low stratus
will probably not arrive as quickly and be as widespread as it
implies. Between this stratus and potentially some cirrus,
radiational cooling might not be as strong this time around, but
there should be enough time for some radiational cooling in
most areas ahead of any cloud cover.
With very shallow low level moisture and forecast soundings showing
enough mixing, whatever low stratus manages to arrive probably
scatters out to some degree during the day on Wednesday. High
temperatures will be generally around 40 - still a little below
normal. Shallow moisture lingers Wednesday night as winds remain
onshore. Low stratus probably returns and becomes a little more
widespread compared to Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A narrow high pressure ridge along the coast will continue to weaken
and slide east, allowing an upper trough and associated sfc frontal
sys to approach form the west and impact the area Thu night into
Fri. Guidance has trended warmer, suggesting more of a mixed precip
to rain scenario well inland for late Thu night into early Fri
morning, otherwise rain. A wave of low pressure forming along the
front to the west should pass over the area daytime Fri, after which
likely PoP should decrease from W-E Fri afternoon, with only some
lingering chance PoP across ern Long Island/CT early Fri evening.
High pressure and dry wx return on Sat, with a gusty NW flow
ushering in a colder air mass with temps a few degrees below normal.
Fair wx should continue on Sunday as the high builds into the area,
with temps moderating closer to normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the northwest through tonight,
passing over the area on Tuesday.
VFR. NW flow around 10 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt early
this afternoon. Winds will fall below 10 kt this evening,
veering around to the by NE Tuesday morning, and then
eventually SE Tuesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may vary 10-20 degrees to the right this afternoon.
An brief gust up to 20 kt is possible early this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday-Thursday: VFR.
Thursday night and Friday: MVFR or lower cond beginning mainly at
night, with rain becoming likely, possibly beginning as a wintry
mix at the onset at or near KSWF.
Friday night: Chance of MVFR/rain in the morning at the eastern
terminals, otherwise mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
.Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.
Chance of MVFR/rain at KGON, otherwise mainly
VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub SCA conds thru tonight with NW wind gusts to 20 kt, and
seas below advisory criteria as winds remain offshore.
Winds then turn onshore Tuesday afternoon, but remain at 10kt or
less through Tuesday night. East winds 10-15kt for Wednesday, but
not strong enough to push seas above 5 ft.
Incoming swells from an offshore storm should build ocean seas above
5 ft beginning late Wed night and continuing into Fri night. NW
winds could also gust to 25-30 kt Fri afternoon/night, highest
on the ocean waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues through the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG