000
FXUS61 KOKX 192322
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
622 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian maritimes high pressure remains in control through
Wednesday, then weakens into Thursday. A frontal system will bring
unsettled weather Thursday night through Friday, followed by high
pressure for the weekend. There is potential for a cold front to
move through the area late Sunday night through Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track this evening. Clear skies are seen on
satellite and this will continue through the night. Good
radiational cooling conditions will have outlying areas falling
down into the lower teens, with mid 20s for NYC/NJ metro.
Longwave northern stream trough over northern New England/SE
Canada gradually slides east tonight into Tuesday. At the
surface, Canadian high pressure continues to build slowly east
into the northeast US, continuing dry conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Split upper flow regime to start with northern stream longwave
trough sliding east of the Canadian Maritimes through Tue Night,
while a deepening PAC shortwave slides east across the SE US
and offshore by midweek (with a weak southern low shearing north
towards the region). This will evolve into a more zonal (PAC
dominant) upper flow for mid to late week.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure slides east across the NE US
on Tue and then slowly drifts east of the Canadian maritimes Tue
Night thru Wed Night, while nosing back SW across the region.
Meanwhile an offshore low develops in response to PAC shortwave
over the Gulf Stream and slowly drifts NE (NW of Bermuda) through
mid week.
Dry conditions prevail thru the period with modifying continental
polar airmass on Tue transitioning to a Canadian maritime airmass
thru midweek. There continues to be a signal for possible stratus
development during the Tue Night into Wed Night period with onshore
flow under subsidence inversion.
Temps will run a few degrees below seasonable on Tue under the
southern periphery of the polar high, moderating towards seasonable
on Wed with maritime NE flow. Overnight low temps will be predicated
on stratus development.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be weakening over the area ahead of an
approaching frontal system to start on Thursday. The daylight hours
will feature normal temperatures and increasing clouds from the
west. PoPs increase by the evening hours and become likely overnight
into Friday morning. PoPs remain likely through Friday and then
taper off Friday night leading to a dry weekend. A mainly plain rain
event is expected, with just a slight chance of a wintry mix across
portions of the far northern interior. QPF has been trending lighter
and lighter, with the latest NBM run showing only around a 20
percent chance of seeing 0.50 inches.
The flow becomes northwest Friday night and a cold and dry airmass
advects in, with high pressure nosing in from the south and west for
the weekend. Aloft, an upper level low remains to the north and will
keep the area under cyclonic flow through much of the weekend. Model
spread then increases heading into early next week. There is
potential for a cold front to move through the area and bring more
rain, but there are disagreements in timing and intensity. For now,
capped PoPs at slight chance Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure in control.
Wind speeds around 10 kt will diminish this evening and
should remain below 10 kt through the TAF period. A NW-NNW
direction will veer to the NE late tonight into early Tuesday
morning and eventually become SE Tuesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may vary 20 either side of forecast this
evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Night-Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Low chance for MVFR stratus
near the coast late at night into early Wednesday morning.
Thursday: VFR.
Thursday night and Friday: MVFR or lower cond beginning mainly
at night, with rain becoming likely, possibly beginning as a
wintry mix at the onset at or near KSWF.
Friday night: Rain ends with conditions becoming VFR. NW winds
G15-20kt.
Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through Wed under influence of high
pressure. ESE ocean swells emanating from large offshore low will
build to SCA levels on the ocean waters Wed Night into Thu AM.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on the ocean waters
Thursday through at least the first half of the weekend, but could
continue into early next week. Seas build to 5 ft early Thursday
with long period southeasterly swells from a storm system well
offshore. Seas reach 7-8 ft by Thursday night and remain elevated
through Friday night. Wind gusts Thursday through early next week
will generally remain below 25 kt. There will, however, be a period
where 25 to 30 kt gusts are possible associated with a frontal
system Friday night through Saturday on all waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/NV
NEAR TERM...JT/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JT/NV
HYDROLOGY...JT/NV