000
FXUS61 KOKX 210016
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
716 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides to our north and east tonight and remains in
control as it weakens into Thursday. A frontal system will move
across the area late Thursday night into Friday, followed by high
pressure building in for the start of the weekend. The high moves
offshore on Sunday with the potential for multiple frontal systems
to impact the area Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
For this update, minor adjustments were made mainly to account
for latest obs and trends.
High pressure slides to our north and east tonight, but will remain
in control. The orientation of the high nosing in will result in a
mainly light easterly flow. This will bring an increase in low level
moisture.
The forecast challenge tonight will be sky cover and how that
affects low temperatures. Across Long Island, NYC and northeast
NJ, trended slightly higher in sky cover and in turn warmer in
low temperatures. However, there will likely be a period just
after sunset through around midnight where temperatures drop
quickly across the usual cold areas. Farther north, across the
interior, clouds likely move in later so went closer to the
CONSMOS for those locations. Expect mid to low 20s for Long
Island, NYC/NJ metro area and the CT coast and mid to upper
teens across the interior.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains in control as it noses back from the north and
east. At the same time, strong low pressure will pass well offshore
to our south and east and remain far enough to not bring any impacts
to land.
Wednesday and Thursday will feature dry conditions, with a slight
warming trend. Highs by Thursday will be back in the mid 40s.
Low pressure approaches from the west on Thursday. Any precip
likely holds off until Thursday evening, but clouds will be
increasing from the west during the daytime hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*A late week cold frontal passage to bring below normal
temperatures to start the weekend.
*A nearly zonal flow aloft will bring warmer Pac air into the
region early next week with the potential for multiple frontal
systems to impact the area.
A fast upper flow to start will send a southern branch frontal
system toward the area at the start of the period. At the same
time, shortwave energy rounding a polar vortex near James Bay in
Canada, will attempt to link up the two streams. There is never
a true phase as the southern branch frontal system works across
the area Thursday night into Friday with mainly rain (a few
flakes north and west of NYC at onset possible). A much colder
shot of air then follows Friday night with a northern branch
cold frontal passage. This will result in colder airmass for the
first half of the weekend with temperatures 5 to 8 degrees below.
A gusty NW flow will make it feel even colder.
High pressure briefly builds across the area Saturday into
Saturday night and then offshore Sunday. There is some
uncertainty beyond this time, but several fast moving frontal
system could impact the area Sunday night into Tuesday. This
event look to be all rain at this time. In addition, temperatures
will return to above normal levels during this time with air
masses of Pac origin moving into the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with Canadian maritimes high pressure nosing into the region
through Wed Night.
VFR tonight, likely giving way to 2500-3000 ft MVFR cigs
development during Wed AM push for coastal terminals. These cigs
will likely be slow to scatter/rise during the afternoon, with
potential re-development Wed Night.
Winds becoming light NE/VRB this evening into Wed AM push
tonight. NE winds increasing to less than 10 kt in the morning and
veering to E in the afternoon. Winds becoming light E/NE or
variable Wed Eve.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Moderate potential for MVFR cig development btwn 12 and 15z,
with moderate potential for cigs to scatter for the eve push.
Light E/NE winds 5 kt or less for AM push, with E winds 10kt or
less likely subsiding and veering NE during even push.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR cigs possible Wed night into Thu
AM, becoming VFR.
Thursday night and Friday: MVFR or lower conds in rain likely,
possibly beginning as a wintry mix at the onset at or near KSWF.
Friday night: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.
Sunday: VFR
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Although high pressure is leading to quiet conditions over the
waters, a long period southeasterly swell will move in
Wednesday night from strong offshore low pressure. A Small Craft
Advisory is now in effect for Wednesday night for the ocean
waters. This advisory will likely be extended as the swell
sticks around for several days. Wave heights on the ocean waters
will reach 5 to 8 feet by Thursday.
SCA conditions continue on the ocean waters through Saturday,
primarily due to swell, but gusts over 25kt are expected Friday
night into Saturday behind the passage of low pressure and a
cold front. This will bring advisory conditions to the non-ocean
waters as well during this period. Sub-SCA conditions may
return briefly late Saturday into Sunday as high pressure moves
across the area with subsiding winds and seas.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW