000
FXUS61 KOKX 220013
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
713 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through tonight, and then weakens
Thursday morning. A frontal system and associated low pressure will
move across the area late Thursday night into Friday. High
pressure builds in for the start of the weekend and remains in
control through Sunday. A warm front passes through Sunday night,
followed by a weak cold front Monday. Another warm front will pass
through sometime on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast is on track this evening. Current sky cover trends
match earlier thinking and have not changed low temperatures.
A very light onshore near the surface with a bit stronger of an
onshore flow towards the top of the boundary layer will aid in
cloud cover for tonight. Based on latest trends looks to be a
mostly cloudy night. More breaks in the clouds appear a little
more likely across far northern zones, especially later at
night. All together this should put a lid to the degree of
radiational cooling that may occur. Where clouds could break up
a bit more then temperatures could get a bit colder than
forecast. A good compromise appears to be middle and upper 20s
mainly up north and northwest, to lower and perhaps a few middle
30s along the coast and in the city.
For Thursday with high pressure weakening and staring to push
offshore going through the day, there should be an increase in upper
level clouds in advance of the next frontal system. Breaks in the
cloud cover cannot be ruled out towards the late morning, but would
appear to be short lived. In any event, look for a mostly cloudy day
on average with overcast conditions later in the afternoon. More of
a return flow out of the SE, and then S later in the day will result
in slightly milder temperatures. The lack of sun however will
prevent temperatures from getting too much above the seasonal
averages. Start to introduce slight chance PoPs mainly west of the
Hudson and the city for the later afternoon and start of the
evening. Much, if not the entire area gets away with a completely
dry day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Thursday evening chance PoPs overspread the area from west to
east. Weak low pressure along an approaching frontal boundary brings
some weak lift into the area. Look for some very light rain or
perhaps a bit of drizzle into the night. The precipitation will be
very light with vertical motions not impressive. For far portions of
the NW interior (mainly NW Orange County) with the dew points and
temps initially lower, cannot rule out some isolated pockets of
freezing drizzle, or a very light mix of rain and wet snow. At this
point in time with the precip to be very light and most places
likely being a degree or two above freezing any impacts or concern
remain low at this time. However, the NAM does have a stronger warm
nose going over a shallow colder air mass closer to the surface. The
warm nose is likely overdone, but it is something to keep an eye on
with regard to trends over the next couple of synoptic model cycles.
Otherwise this event looks to be light, but wet one across the
region as any frozen precip NW will be limited.
For Friday morning the southerly flow increases, especially closer
to and along the coast. This will get temperatures milder across the
region into the late morning and afternoon despite cloud cover and a
more widespread rain region wide with likely and categorical PoPs.
The higher PoPs will be mainly for the first half of the day. The
rain will be light, even ahead of the cold frontal boundary. The
cold front then moves through late in the day and gets off the coast
for the early evening. Liquid amounts will be light, averaging
around a quarter of an inch for much of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure pulls away Friday night, with some lingering rain
possible for far eastern zones until about midnight. High pressure
then starts to build in at the surface, with an upper level trough
lingering through the first half of the weekend. A gusty northwest
flow will usher in a cold and dry airmass through Saturday night.
High pressure shifts offshore midday Sunday and then winds become
S/SW. A warming trend will then start that will continue through the
end of the long term period. A warm front moves through Sunday
night, followed by a very weak cold front. There will not be much in
the way of an airmass change with the cold frontal passage and there
is just a slight chance of showers. Mainly plain rain is expected,
with the potential for snow showers across the interior at the
start. Overall QPF will be light.
Another warm front moves through sometime on Tuesday as strong low
pressure approaches from the west. Chance PoPs start on Tuesday and
continue through Wednesday. Given the warm airmass and track of the
approaching low, any precip with this next system will be in the
form of plain rain. Highs by Wednesday look to be in the upper 50s
to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weakening high pressure remains in place through Thursday. A
frontal system approaches Thursday night.
VFR to high end MVFR ceilings through the TAF period, with a
cloud deck averaging 3000-3500 ft. There will be times when the
cloud deck is scattered through early this evening before
becoming broken to overcast again. However, this is a low
confidence forecast as VFR conditions may prevail through much
of the TAF period.
East to southeast winds become light and variable this evening, and
then southerly Thursday morning. Speeds will generally be 10 kt or
less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence VFR to high end MVFR ceiling forecast. Conditions
may end up being VFR much of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night and Friday: MVFR/IFR conds likely develop in
rain, possibly a wintry mix at KSWF into the early evening.
Friday night: Becoming VFR early. NW winds G15-20kt.
Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.
Sunday - Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft conditions arrive on the ocean waters due to
increasing seas beginning late tonight and early Thursday
morning as a 8 second period SE swell increases to around 10-11
second period during Thursday. Small craft seas are likely to
last through the remainder of the week. The winds will be mainly
out of the SE and S late Thursday and Thursday night as high
pressure departs and low pressure approaches the waters. The
winds will switch around to the NW by Friday evening with small
craft gusts developing.
5-6 foot seas from a southeasterly swell will likely be ongoing at
the start of Friday night. At the same time, low pressure will be
exiting the area and a northwest wind will be increasing, likely
reaching 25 kt gusts late Friday night and continuing through
Saturday. Waves and winds then likely remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria through Sunday. SCA criteria then looks possible
for much of early to mid next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected throughout the entire forecast
period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the approach of a full moon late this week with astronomical
tides increasing, minor coastal flood benchmarks will be approached
for the south shore back bays of Nassau County for the Friday
morning high tide cycle. At this time it appears that other
locations will fall short of minor benchmarks.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Friday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/JT
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...