000
FXUS61 KOKX 222133
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
433 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure and its associated warm front approach tonight and
move through Friday morning. A cold front moves through late
Friday night. High pressure builds to begin the weekend. A warm
front passes through Sunday night, followed by a weak cold front
stalling over or near the area on Monday. A stronger frontal
system will then impact the area for the middle of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Precip / rain chances increase generally from west to east this
evening, with the relatively higher PoPs across NW and N areas as
the deepest RH and higher 700 mb moisture axis will be placed to the
N. The overall lift will not be all that impressive, but there will
be enough lift to generate a light rainfall across the region. Temps
will be somewhat marginal across far N and NW sections (mainly
across W and NW Orange County). At this time thinking this is an all
rain event for the entire CWA, even for far N and NW areas. A few
brief pockets of a wintry mix or wet snow cannot be completely ruled
out, but chances of this remain low and would be quite isolated
based on latest progs, therefore have slight chance wording for
any frozen precip up north. Even most MSV / Sullivan County fx
soundings look a bit too warm for the most part to support
anything impactful in terms of winter precip types, although a
few colder members point to a period of wet snow just to our NW.
This appears to be the exception rather than the rule, even on
the other side of the NW boundary of the CWA. Current thinking
has dew points staying above freezing across the CWA. Winds will
be light across the interior out of the SE, but winds increase
a bit with more of a southerly component to the boundary layer
flow closer to and along the coast.

For Friday there may be a break in the precip across SE sections to
start, but as the low pushes across and the cold front draws closer
precip should reinitiate across E and SE sections towards mid
day. Upper level jet dynamics look to increase with a 100+ kt
upper jet shown offshore with coastal areas perhaps getting into
the LF quadrant of this upper jet briefly late Friday afternoon
and very early Friday evening. This is where the uncertainty
appears high in the NWP guidance. The NAM has been more
aggressive in ending precip earlier from west to east Friday
afternoon, but certain HREF members (especially the Fv3) appear
to extend a round of precip for eastern sections into early
Friday evening. A PMM and consensus approach however suggest
this is an outlier. Chose not to be too quick to end precip and
lower chances too much further east late in the day Friday.
Liquid / QPF amounts will be mainly around a quarter inch, with
perhaps some places well to the N and NW closer to half inch.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Drier air filters in gradually Friday night as high pressure begins
to build with only slightly cooler air moving in. The more
significant air mass change will take place behind a secondary cold
front towards the pre-dawn hours late Fri night / early Sat morning.
Eventually temperatures towards daybreak get into the middle and
upper 20s across far NW zones, with mainly lower 30s at the coast.
Behind this boundary dew points drop significantly into the day on
Saturday as the winds take on more of a northerly component out of
the NNW. Daytime wind chills will be running in the upper teens and
20s despite a good deal of sunshine with high pressure building
across the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Globals are in decent agreement through the forecast period with
some timing issues late next week with a frontal system. Early in
the period, there is a fast moving northern branch trough that
sends a warm front through the area. Airmass ahead of it is
quite dry and there is only a slight chance of precipitation
Sunday night. Due to wet-bulbing in the dry airmass, this will
either be snow or a rain/snow mix. Expect only a few hundredths
of liquid equivalent at most.

Beyond that time, a fast, nearly zonal upper flow will feature
an amplifying shortwave trough tracking from the west coast on
Monday to east of the Mississippi River Valley by Thursday. The
latter of which will send a warm front into the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday along with a chance of rain. The area then
gets into the warm sector at some point Wednesday, with the cold
front moving into the area Thursday. The system looks to be
progressive as well as warm, with an all rain forecast. However,
the cold front looks to active as it collides with an anomalously
warm airmass ahead of it. There is also some colder northern
branch air filtering in the backside. However, at this early
time, there are differences with the magnitude of the upper
trough as it comes onshore the west coast. The 12Z ECMWF is
initially not as deep, allowing for more progression, and a
quicker cold frontal passage Wednesday night, while the GFS and
Canadian have a more elongated, less compact trough. These
results in a slower cold frontal passage. The fast Pac flow
undoubtedly will lead to some forecast changes in coming days.

As for temperatures, near normal to start Sunday, but thereafter
warming into the 50s, possibly the 60s by Wednesday for locations
north and west of the NYC metro. An increasing southerly flow
Tuesday into Wednesday will limit warming across coastal locations
due to the cold waters, especially across south shore locations
of LI and the CT coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure weakens into tonight as low pressure approaches. The
low passes through during Friday.

VFR into early evening before flight categories lower with rain.
Mostly MVFR late evening and overnight with a chance of IFR
developing toward Friday morning. IFR is more likely north of the
city this evening and overnight.

Southerly winds around 10kt or less, become light and variable this
evening outside of the NYC metro terminals. As low pressure moves
through the terminals winds will switch to the SW and W Friday
morning, before becoming NW late in the forecast.

Timing of wind shifts is low confidence and dependent on the track
of low pressure across the terminals.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR ceilings may redevelop earlier this evening than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon: VFR at the NYC terminals and west. IFR/MVFR in
rain east of the NYC terminals with rain ending and improving to VFR
late in the day.

Friday night - Saturday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Sunday - Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain in
the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Small craft conditions with persist with E to SE swells in place
over the next few days. Marginal small craft gusts will take place
tonight on the ocean in advance of an approaching frontal boundary
with 5 to 7 ft seas. The winds will be out of the south, then
southwest ahead of the frontal boundary. Behind the frontal boundary
and departing low pressure later Friday into Friday evening the
winds will become W, then NW. A period of small craft wind gusts are
likely to return to the ocean waters late Friday night and into a
good portion of the day Saturday. Ocean seas will then remain at 5
to 6 ft Friday night and Saturday.

There could be a brief respite in SCA for the ocean on Sunday,
as lingering high seas subside below 5 ft. However, southerly
flow ahead of a warm front will bring seas around SCA levels
later Sunday night into Monday. Winds and seas then subside as
weak high pressure builds briefly across the waters Monday
night into Tuesday. A stronger frontal system for the middle of
next week will likely bring a return to SCA conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts are expected throughout the forecast
period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
With the approach of a full moon, tides with be running high
with the astronomical component increasing, particularly for
Friday morning. However, at this time water levels are expected
to fall short of minor coastal flood benchmarks. Thus, coastal
flood advisories / statements do not appear to be needed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...