000
FXUS61 KOKX 231148
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
648 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will multiple waves of low pressure will work
slowly across the area through this evening. A secondary cold
front moves through late Friday night into early Saturday
morning. High pressure then builds in through the weekend.
Low pressure passes well to the north Sunday night into
Monday, with high pressure briefly in place Tuesday. A strong
frontal system impacts the region midweek, with high pressure
returning behind it late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track early this morning. Rain associated with an
approaching warm front continues to lift north of the area. The
rain will continue becoming more spotty or even end in the next
few hours. Have trended PoPs down to chance for the morning
hours. A cold front will move into the area through the day.
There is increasing confidence that the front will largely be
east of the Hudson River Corridor/NYC metro after 18z. A wave of
low pressure should develop along the front as it is moving
over Long Island and Connecticut. This will bring another round
of rain in the afternoon and early evening. There is some
support aloft as the region becomes situated within the right
entrance of a jet streak to our northeast. Highest probabilities
for rain in the afternoon and evening lie across eastern Long
Island and southeast Connecticut. Rainfall amounts will be light
and generally around a few tenths.
The wave of low pressure helps push the cold front just
offshore this evening. Have sided with the latest model
consensus, which pushes the front and associated low pressure
away from the coast tonight. Any lingering rain near the east
end will likely abate 01- 03z. A secondary cold front associated
with an amplifying northern stream shortwave quickly follows
late tonight into early Saturday morning. This front will bring
in much cooler and drier air to start the weekend.
Daytime highs on Friday will likely be in the middle to upper
40s for most locations. Portions of the NYC metro and NE NJ
could rise near 50 degrees. Temperatures tonight should fall
into the upper 20s inland and lower to middle 30s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While a trend towards above normal temperatures and milder
conditions is becoming likely for the upcoming week, the
weekend will remain on the colder side.
An upper trough over the eastern US on Saturday will move
offshore Saturday night. Heights may rise a bit on Sunday as a
relatively flat shortwave traverses the US/Canada border. High
pressure builds towards the area from the Central States on
Saturday and then sets up over the eastern seaboard Sunday. A
few clouds are possible Saturday with the upper trough over the
region, especially in the morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny
conditions are forecast both Saturday and Sunday.
Highs on Saturday will be below normal in the middle to upper
30s. Highs on Sunday should be a few degrees higher in the
upper 30s and low 40s. Breezy conditions are likely on Saturday
with NW winds around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph. A cold and dry
air mass in place Saturday night night will bring lows in the
teens inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and low to middle 20s
elsewhere. Winds do not completely decouple so wind chills will
make it feel like it is single digits in the coldest inland
locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term. Mild air mass to start
the period, likely peaking on Wednesday ahead of a strong
frontal system that advances through the region mid to late
week.
Fast moving northern branch trough sends a warm front through
the area Sunday night. Air mass ahead of it is quite dry so
only a slight chance of precipitation Sunday night across parts
of the interior. Wet bulbing would support snow or a rain/snow
mix, though any QPF is light, a few hundredths of liquid
equivalent at most.
Beyond this, a fast, nearly zonal upper flow will feature an
amplifying shortwave trough tracking from the West Coast on
Monday, to east of the Mississippi River Valley by Thursday.
The latter of which will send a warm front into the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday along with increasing chances for
precipitation. The area looks to get into the warm sector
Wednesday, with the cold front moving through by Thursday. A
very mild air mass will preclude anything but plain rain ahead
of the cold front. Temperatures may even exceed 60F in the urban
NYC metro on Wednesday. Still plenty of time for guidance to
resolve some remaining timing differences. Capped PoPs at low
likelies (60%) on Wednesday to account for this uncertainty,
otherwise, the national blend was largely followed for this
update.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes through the Tri-State today. High pressure
builds in tonight.
Varying categories this morning with low cigs and vsbys from
the frontal system. Mainly MVFR to start, though cigs may
occasionally lift to VFR or lower to IFR. Brief LIFR possible at
KHPN or KSWF. Slow improvement to VFR expected this afternoon,
though this may hold off until early evening for eastern terminals.
Light and variable winds early this morning before NW flow
becomes established by the early afternoon (right of 310 mag).
Speeds remain below 10 kt through daybreak Saturday, then
increase toward 15 kt through Sat morning.
The afternoon KLGA haze potential is YELLOW, which implies slant
range visibility 4-6SM outside of a cloud.
The afternoon KJFK haze potential is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of a cloud.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely due to changing flight categories this
morning.
Timing of wind shifts may be off by several hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Sunday - Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain in
the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A small craft advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters
until Saturday evening. Winds will be weak today, but elevated
seas continue around 5 to 7 ft. Winds increase behind a cold
front passage late tonight into Saturday morning with marginal
SCA gusts on the ocean. Elevated ocean seas will also continue
tonight into Saturday, possibly into Saturday night. Winds
should begin to weaken Saturday night and especially on Sunday
as the pressure gradient relaxes with high pressure.
SCA conditions develop on the ocean late Sunday night with
marginal wind and seas, potentially persisting through much of
Monday before improvement.
A brief period of sub SCA conditions is then expected late Monday
through Tuesday on all waters. An approaching frontal system likely
reintroduces SCA conditions to all waters late Tuesday or early
Wednesday, with gales possible on at least the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be running high with a full moon on
Saturday. However, water levels should fall just short of minor
coastal flooding benchmarks with this mornings high tide, especially
across the South Shore Back Bays of Nassau County. No
coastal flood statements have been issued. Water levels look
lower into the weekend as the flow becomes offshore.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...