000
FXUS61 KOKX 231501
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1001 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system will multiple waves of low pressure will work
slowly across the area through this evening. A secondary cold
front moves through late tonight into early Saturday morning.
High pressure then builds in through the weekend. Low pressure
passes well to the north Sunday night into Monday, with high
pressure briefly in place Tuesday. A strong frontal system
impacts the region midweek, with high pressure returning behind
it late next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Made minor adjustments for the current conditions, and updated
the probabilities into early this evening incorporating the
latest HRRR.
Rain associated with a warm front was mainly north of the area
this morning. A cold front will move into the area through the
day. There is increasing confidence that the front will largely
be east of the Hudson River Corridor/NYC metro after 18z. A wave
of low pressure should develop along the front as it is moving
over Long Island and Connecticut. This will bring another round
of rain in the afternoon and early evening. There is some
support aloft as the region becomes situated within the right
entrance of a jet streak to our northeast. Highest probabilities
for rain in the afternoon and evening lie across eastern Long
Island and southeast Connecticut. Rainfall amounts will be light
and generally around a few tenths.
The wave of low pressure helps push the cold front just
offshore this evening. Have sided with the latest model
consensus, which pushes the front and associated low pressure
away from the coast tonight. Any lingering rain near the east
end will likely abate 01- 03z. A secondary cold front associated
with an amplifying northern stream shortwave quickly follows
late tonight into early Saturday morning. This front will bring
in much cooler and drier air to start the weekend.
Daytime highs on Friday will likely be in the middle to upper
40s for most locations. Portions of the NYC metro and NE NJ
could rise near 50 degrees. Temperatures tonight should fall
into the upper 20s inland and lower to middle 30s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While a trend towards above normal temperatures and milder
conditions is becoming likely for the upcoming week, the
weekend will remain on the colder side.
An upper trough over the eastern US on Saturday will move
offshore Saturday night. Heights may rise a bit on Sunday as a
relatively flat shortwave traverses the US/Canada border. High
pressure builds towards the area from the Central States on
Saturday and then sets up over the eastern seaboard Sunday. A
few clouds are possible Saturday with the upper trough over the
region, especially in the morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny
conditions are forecast both Saturday and Sunday.
Highs on Saturday will be below normal in the middle to upper
30s. Highs on Sunday should be a few degrees higher in the
upper 30s and low 40s. Breezy conditions are likely on Saturday
with NW winds around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph. A cold and dry
air mass in place Saturday night night will bring lows in the
teens inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and low to middle 20s
elsewhere. Winds do not completely decouple so wind chills will
make it feel like it is single digits in the coldest inland
locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term. Mild air mass to start
the period, likely peaking on Wednesday ahead of a strong
frontal system that advances through the region mid to late
week.
Fast moving northern branch trough sends a warm front through
the area Sunday night. Air mass ahead of it is quite dry so
only a slight chance of precipitation Sunday night across parts
of the interior. Wet bulbing would support snow or a rain/snow
mix, though any QPF is light, a few hundredths of liquid
equivalent at most.
Beyond this, a fast, nearly zonal upper flow will feature an
amplifying shortwave trough tracking from the West Coast on
Monday, to east of the Mississippi River Valley by Thursday.
The latter of which will send a warm front into the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday along with increasing chances for
precipitation. The area looks to get into the warm sector
Wednesday, with the cold front moving through by Thursday. A
very mild air mass will preclude anything but plain rain ahead
of the cold front. Temperatures may even exceed 60F in the urban
NYC metro on Wednesday. Still plenty of time for guidance to
resolve some remaining timing differences. Capped PoPs at low
likelies (60%) on Wednesday to account for this uncertainty,
otherwise, the national blend was largely followed for this
update.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure passes through today. High pressure builds tonight
into Saturday.
Varying categories for the next few hours with low cigs and vsbys
from the frontal system. VFR goes to MVFR with some IFR for eastern
most terminals this afternoon. Brief LIFR possible at KHPN or KSWF,
but mainly IFR expected until slow improvement to VFR this afternoon.
Improvement to VFR for eastern most terminals like KISP and KGON may
hold off until early evening.
Light NW flow becomes established early this afternoon (right of 310
mag). Speeds remain below 10 kt through daybreak Saturday, then
increase toward 15 kt through Sat morning with G20kt likely.
The afternoon KLGA haze potential is YELLOW, which implies slant
range visibility 4-6SM outside of a cloud.
The afternoon KJFK haze potential is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of a cloud.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments will continue to be likely due to changing flight categories
through the early afternoon.
Timing of wind shifts may be off by 1 to 3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20kt.
Sunday - Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain late
in the day and towards evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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No changes to winds and seas at this time.
A small craft advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters
until Saturday evening. Winds will be weak today, but elevated
seas continue around 5 to 7 ft. Winds increase behind a cold
front passage late tonight into Saturday morning with marginal
SCA gusts on the ocean. Elevated ocean seas will also continue
tonight into Saturday, possibly into Saturday night. Winds
should begin to weaken Saturday night and especially on Sunday
as the pressure gradient relaxes with high pressure.
SCA conditions develop on the ocean late Sunday night with
marginal wind and seas, potentially persisting through much of
Monday before improvement.
A brief period of sub SCA conditions is then expected late Monday
through Tuesday on all waters. An approaching frontal system likely
reintroduces SCA conditions to all waters late Tuesday or early
Wednesday, with gales possible on at least the ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides will be running high with a full moon on
Saturday. This morning`s high tide cycle has passed and water
levels were below the minor flooding benchmarks. Water levels
are forecast to remain below minor coastal flooding benchmarks
through the weekend as the flow becomes offshore.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JE/DR
MARINE...DR/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...