000
FXUS61 KOKX 231820
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
120 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will multiple waves of low pressure will work
slowly across the area through this evening. A secondary cold
front moves through late tonight into early Saturday morning.
High pressure then builds in through the weekend. Low pressure
passes well to the north Sunday night into Monday, with high
pressure briefly in place Tuesday. A strong frontal system
impacts the region midweek, with high pressure returning behind
it late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Made minor adjustments for the current conditions, and updated
the probabilities this afternoon as frontal waves east and south
of Long Island, along with an upper jet move across the region.

Highest probabilities for rain through this evening lie across
eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Rainfall
amounts will be light with just a few hundredths of additional
rainfall into this evening.

A secondary cold front associated with an amplifying northern
stream shortwave quickly follows late tonight into early
Saturday morning. This front will bring in much cooler and drier
air to start the weekend.

Daytime highs on Friday will likely be in the middle to upper
40s for most locations. Portions of the NYC metro and NE NJ
could rise near 50 degrees. Temperatures tonight should fall
into the upper 20s inland and lower to middle 30s elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While a trend towards above normal temperatures and milder
conditions is becoming likely for the upcoming week, the
weekend will remain on the colder side.

An upper trough over the eastern US on Saturday will move
offshore Saturday night. Heights may rise a bit on Sunday as a
relatively flat shortwave traverses the US/Canada border. High
pressure builds towards the area from the Central States on
Saturday and then sets up over the eastern seaboard Sunday. A
few clouds are possible Saturday with the upper trough over the
region, especially in the morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny
conditions are forecast both Saturday and Sunday.

Highs on Saturday will be below normal in the middle to upper
30s. Highs on Sunday should be a few degrees higher in the
upper 30s and low 40s. Breezy conditions are likely on Saturday
with NW winds around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph. A cold and dry
air mass in place Saturday night night will bring lows in the
teens inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and low to middle 20s
elsewhere. Winds do not completely decouple so wind chills will
make it feel like it is single digits in the coldest inland
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes in the long term. Mild air mass to start
the period, likely peaking on Wednesday ahead of a strong
frontal system that advances through the region mid to late
week.

Fast moving northern branch trough sends a warm front through
the area Sunday night. Air mass ahead of it is quite dry so
only a slight chance of precipitation Sunday night across parts
of the interior. Wet bulbing would support snow or a rain/snow
mix, though any QPF is light, a few hundredths of liquid
equivalent at most.

Beyond this, a fast, nearly zonal upper flow will feature an
amplifying shortwave trough tracking from the West Coast on
Monday, to east of the Mississippi River Valley by Thursday.
The latter of which will send a warm front into the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday along with increasing chances for
precipitation. The area looks to get into the warm sector
Wednesday, with the cold front moving through by Thursday. A
very mild air mass will preclude anything but plain rain ahead
of the cold front. Temperatures may even exceed 60F in the urban
NYC metro on Wednesday. Still plenty of time for guidance to
resolve some remaining timing differences. Capped PoPs at low
locales (60%) on Wednesday to account for this uncertainty,
otherwise, the national blend was largely followed for this
update.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes to the east and northeast this afternoon. High
pressure builds tonight into Saturday.

Mainly VFR going forward for the city terminals, with some lingering sub
VFR (mostly MVFR) for the western terminals until 20-21z. Otherwise
much of the sub VFR conditions will be for the eastern most terminals
like KISP and KGON with -SHRA moving through eastern portions of the
air space until 23-0z, with VFR conditions further east thereafter.

Light NW flow through the remainder of the afternoon (right of 310
mag). Speeds remain below 10 kt until daybreak approaches Sat AM,
then increasing toward 15G20kt by 12-14Z Sat.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible due to fluctuating flight categories until 20-21z.

Timing of the start of wind gusts Sat AM may be off by 1 to 3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon: VFR. NNW winds 15G20kt subside towards evening with
N winds under 10 kt late Sat night.

Sunday: VFR.

Sunday night: Mainly VFR, with a brief period of MVFR possible late in
SHRA. Possible SHSN for KSWF.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain late
in the day and towards evening.

Wednesday: MVFR likely in SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front and waves of low pressure were south and east of
Long Island and winds have shifted to the northwest and north,
so updated for the winds into this evening.

A small craft advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters
until Saturday evening. Winds will be weak today, but elevated
seas continue around 5 to 7 ft. Winds increase behind a cold
front passage late tonight into Saturday morning, with marginal
SCA gusts on the ocean during Saturday. Elevated ocean seas
will also continue tonight into Saturday, possibly into Saturday
night. Winds and gusts begin to diminish Saturday evening, and
especially on Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes with high
pressure building into the waters.

SCA conditions develop on the ocean late Sunday night with
marginal wind and seas, potentially persisting through much of
Monday before improvement.

A brief period of sub SCA conditions is then expected late Monday
through Tuesday on all waters. An approaching frontal system likely
reintroduces SCA conditions to all waters late Tuesday or early
Wednesday, with gales possible on at least the ocean.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS