000
FXUS61 KOKX 232057
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal system, with multiple waves of low pressure, will
work slowly east through this evening. A secondary cold front
moves across the region late tonight into early Saturday
morning. High pressure then builds in through Sunday. Low
pressure passing well to the north Sunday night will send a warm
front through the area. Weak high pressure briefly follows for
Monday into Monday night, then gives way to a strong frontal
system that impacts the area for midweek. High pressure will
return for the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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The frontal system, with multiple waves of low pressure, has
moved through the region and winds have shifted to the northwest
and north. An upper level jet was moving through New England,
and with the area remaining in the right entrance region light
precipitation continues across southeastern Connecticut and
eastern Long Island. With the jet moving to the northeast, along
with the frontal system tracking slowly east and northeast
precipitation will gradually move out of the area through early
this evening.
Thereafter, an amplifying northern stream upper longwave trough
will approach from the northwest and bring a secondary cold
front across the area from around 05Z through 10Z, and bring in
a much colder airmass.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Upper ridging builds slowly toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night as a surface high across central Canada and the
northern Great Lakes region tracks slowly to the south and east.
Temperatures Saturday will be just below seasonal normals, then
the cold airmass settles into the area Saturday night as winds
become light, with clearing conditions. With radiational cooling
setting up, especially late Saturday night, overnight lows will
range from 5 to near 10 degrees below seasonal levels.
The surface high will be overhead Sunday with plenty of
sunshine and temperatures will recover to near seasonal levels
as weak warm advection begins to set up after 18Z Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Fast moving northern branch trough sends a warm front through
the area Sunday night. Airmass ahead of it is quite dry so only
a slight chance of precipitation Sunday night across parts of
the interior. Wet bulbing would support snow or a rain/snow mix,
though any QPF is light, a few hundredths of liquid equivalent
at most.
Beyond this, a fast, nearly zonal upper flow will feature an
amplifying shortwave trough tracking from the West Coast on
Monday, to east of the Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday.
The latter of which will send a warm front into the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday along with increasing chances for rain.
The area looks to get into the warm sector Wednesday, with the
cold front moving through Wednesday night. Stayed close to the
NBM, which is faster than it was 24h ago. There is also quite a
bit of spread in the 12Z operational guidance between the ECMWF,
GFS, and Canadian, with the cold frontal passage occurring
anywhere from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon.
Corresponding ensembles not much help either. This is not
unusual in such a fast flow. Latest forecast bring rains into
the area mainly Tuesday night, with a chance continuing into
Thursday morning. This will be better resolved as we get closer
to the event and the jet energy comes onshore the Pac NW.
A very mild air mass will precede the cold frontal passage late
Wednesday. Temperatures may even exceed 60F in the urban NYC
metro on Wednesday. Continued to cap PoPs at 60% on Wednesday to
account for the mentioned timing uncertainty.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure and its associated frontal boundary passes to the
east this evening. High pressure builds tonight into Saturday.
Mainly VFR, with the exception being some lingering sub VFR
(mostly MVFR) for the easternmost terminals until 23-01z with
-SHRA moving through eastern portions of the air space,
otherwise VFR conditions further east thereafter.
NW fairly light for this evening at 5 to 10 kt. Speeds remain
below 10 kt until daybreak approaches Sat AM, then increasing
toward 15G20kt by 12-14Z Sat.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of the start of wind gusts Sat AM may be off by 1 to 3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: VFR. NNW winds 15G20kt subside towards evening with
N winds under 10 kt late Sat night.
Sunday: VFR.
Sunday night: Mainly VFR, with a brief period of MVFR possible late in
SHRA. Possible SHSN for KSWF.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain late
in the day and towards evening.
Wednesday: MVFR likely in SHRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A frontal system, with multiple waves of low pressure, was
mainly east and south of the forecast waters, and will continue
to track slowly east. Winds have shifted to the northwest and
north, and will increase late tonight into Saturday along with
gusts developing. Winds and gusts are expected to remain below
SCA levels, but may be marginal on the ocean waters at times
during Saturday. However, ocean seas will remain elevated at SCA
levels tonight through at least Saturday night, and the SCA was
extended. Ocean seas may still be at advisory levels into Sunday
morning, especially across the eastern ocean waters, and the
advisory may need to be extended.
SCA conditions develop on the ocean late Sunday night with
marginal S-SW winds and seas, persisting through the first half
of Monday. Another brief period of sub-SCA conditions is
expected late Monday through Tuesday on all waters. An
approaching frontal system likely reintroduces SCA conditions to
all waters late Tuesday or early Wednesday, with southerly
gales possible on the ocean. At this time, took a blend of the
NBM, NBM EXP and CONSALL for winds and gusts. NBM often is too
strong, especially with a strengthening inversion over the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday as evident in model soundings.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week. Mid week
frontal system looks to be too progressive to produce impactful
rainfall amounts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW