000
FXUS61 KOKX 232351
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
651 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal system east of the area with multiple waves of low
pressure will continue to track slowly away from the area this
evening. A secondary cold front moves across the region late
tonight into early Saturday morning. High pressure then builds
in through Sunday. Low pressure passing well to the north Sunday
night will send a warm front through the area. Weak high
pressure briefly follows for Monday into Monday night, then
gives way to a strong frontal system that impacts the area for
midweek. High pressure will return for the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Back edge of light rain across eastern LI and SE CT will
continue to track east and should pass offshore by 11 pm.
Rainfall amounts will light.
Thereafter, an amplifying northern stream upper longwave trough
will approach from the northwest, sending a secondary cold
front across the area late tonight. NW winds will gradually
increase through the night and bring in a much colder airmass.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging builds slowly toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night as a surface high across central Canada and the
northern Great Lakes region tracks slowly to the south and east.
Temperatures Saturday will be just below seasonal normals, then
the cold airmass settles into the area Saturday night as winds
become light, with clearing conditions. With radiational cooling
setting up, especially late Saturday night, overnight lows will
range from 5 to near 10 degrees below seasonal levels.
The surface high will be overhead Sunday with plenty of
sunshine and temperatures will recover to near seasonal levels
as weak warm advection begins to set up after 18Z Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fast moving northern branch trough sends a warm front through
the area Sunday night. Airmass ahead of it is quite dry so only
a slight chance of precipitation Sunday night across parts of
the interior. Wet bulbing would support snow or a rain/snow mix,
though any QPF is light, a few hundredths of liquid equivalent
at most.
Beyond this, a fast, nearly zonal upper flow will feature an
amplifying shortwave trough tracking from the West Coast on
Monday, to east of the Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday.
The latter of which will send a warm front into the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday along with increasing chances for rain.
The area looks to get into the warm sector Wednesday, with the
cold front moving through Wednesday night. Stayed close to the
NBM, which is faster than it was 24h ago. There is also quite a
bit of spread in the 12Z operational guidance between the ECMWF,
GFS, and Canadian, with the cold frontal passage occurring
anywhere from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon.
Corresponding ensembles not much help either. This is not
unusual in such a fast flow. Latest forecast bring rains into
the area mainly Tuesday night, with a chance continuing into
Thursday morning. This will be better resolved as we get closer
to the event and the jet energy comes onshore the Pac NW.
A very mild air mass will precede the cold frontal passage late
Wednesday. Temperatures may even exceed 60F in the urban NYC
metro on Wednesday. Continued to cap PoPs at 60% on Wednesday to
account for the mentioned timing uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front pushes offshore this evening. High pressure then
builds tonight into Saturday.
VFR. Some lingering MVFR for the eastern terminals until 01-02Z.
NW fairly light for this evening at 5 to 10 kt. Speeds remain
below 10 kt until daybreak approaches Sat AM, then increase
toward 15G20kt by 12-14Z Sat.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of the start of wind gusts Sat AM may be off by 1 to 3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: VFR. NNW winds 15G20kt subside towards evening with
N winds under 10 kt late Sat night.
Sunday: VFR.
Sunday night: Mainly VFR, with a brief period of MVFR possible late in
SHRA. Possible SHSN for KSWF.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain late
in the day and towards evening.
Wednesday: MVFR likely in SHRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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frontal system east of the area with multiple waves of low
pressure will continue to track slowly east and away from the area
this evening. NW winds behind the front will gradually strengthen
through the night into Saturday. Winds and gusts are expected
to remain below SCA levels, but may be marginal on the ocean
waters at times during Saturday. However, ocean seas will remain
elevated at SCA levels tonight through at least Saturday night.
Ocean seas may still be at advisory levels into Sunday morning,
especially across the eastern ocean waters, and the advisory
may need to be extended.
SCA conditions develop on the ocean late Sunday night with
marginal S-SW winds and seas, persisting through the first half
of Monday. Another brief period of sub-SCA conditions is expected
late Monday through Tuesday on all waters. An approaching frontal
system likely reintroduces SCA conditions to all waters late
Tuesday or early Wednesday, with southerly gales possible on the
ocean. At this time, took a blend of the NBM, NBM EXP and CONSALL
for winds and gusts. NBM often is too strong, especially with a
strengthening inversion over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
as evident in model soundings.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week. A mid
week frontal system looks to be too progressive to produce
impactful rainfall amounts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW