000
FXUS61 KOKX 240830
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
330 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A secondary cold front passes east of the area early this
morning. High pressure then builds in through Sunday. Low
pressure passing well to the north Sunday night will send a warm
front through the area. Weak high pressure briefly follows for
Monday into Monday night, then gives way to a strong frontal
system that impacts the area for midweek. High pressure will
return for the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure and initial cold front continue to work their
way further offshore. A secondary cold front is approaching
and should move through the area towards day break. A weak mid
level disturbance and its associated precipitation will pass the
region by to the south this morning.
The front and disturbance move offshore this morning with high
pressure building into the area through the rest of the day.
Northerly flow will usher in a much drier air mass with any
lingering clouds in the morning diminishing by the afternoon.
A mixed boundary layer and pressure gradient ahead of the high
pressure supports wind gusts 20-25 mph. Highs will end up just
shy of normal values for this time of year in the upper 30s and
lower 40s.
The high pressure will continue building towards the eastern
seaboard tonight. Initially radiationally cooling conditions
are not ideal with winds staying up the first half of the
night. Dew points are progged to be in the single digits tonight
along with clear skies. However, winds should weaken
considerably late tonight into early Sunday morning to allow
temperatures to fall into the teens inland and Long Island Pine
Barrens with lower to middle 20s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The surface and upper ridge axis will be overhead on Sunday.
There will be less mixing with the high overhead allowing
temperatures to only rise into the middle to upper 30s for
much of the area. The only exception is the NYC metro and NE NJ
where lower 40s appear likely.
The ridge axis moves offshore Sunday evening. A shortwave
moving across southeast Canada Sunday night into early Monday
morning will send a warm front across the area. The warm front
and shortwave should begin lifting away from New England later
Monday afternoon and evening. Some model guidance has shown a
weak signal for light precip with the warm front passage Sunday
night into Monday morning, mainly north and east of the CWA.
Have largely kept PoPs under 15 percent, but it would not be out
of the question for a few spots to see a few flurries or
sprinkles. Mostly cloudy skies early Monday morning will give
way to mostly sunny conditions late morning into the afternoon.
The passage of the warm front will bring in much milder air with
temperatures likely rising into the 50s across the Lower Hudson
Valley, NE NJ, and NYC metro. Due to some marine influence
further east, temperatures will be a bit lower but still several
degrees above normal in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
Mid and high clouds may start to increase Monday night as a
strong SW flow develops aloft ahead of an amplifying shortwave
over the west. Lows will be above normal in the 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Amplifying shortwave trough tracks east across the CONUS
early to midweek, sending a warm front through the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday and bringing increasing rain chances. The
area gets into the warm sector Wednesday, with the attendant
cold front moving through Wednesday night or early Thursday.
High pressure returns behind it late week.
Still timing differences with the frontal system in the 00Z
suite, with the GEPS the slowest of the globals, the ECM the
fastest, and the GEFS in between. Took the middle approach and
have PoPs gradually increasing Tuesday as the warm front lifts
through, though continue to cap (70%) below NBM given the
guidance discrepancies. Also continued to cut down winds from
NBM Wednesday as the southerly LLJ passes nearby. While a period
of blustery conditions appears likely, especially coastal
eastern locales, BUFKIT soundings indicate a strengthening
inversion inhibiting the strongest of the winds from mixing
down.
A very mild air mass will precede the cold frontal passage
with the region warm sectored on Wednesday. Guidance signals
the potential for parts of the lower Hudson Valley and the NYC
urban metro exceeding 60F, or about 15 to 20 degrees above
normal. The cold front advances east through the region by early
Thursday, and conditions dry out thereafter. An upper ridge
amplifies over the region as surface high pressure builds in
through the start of next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds through the forecast period.
VFR.
Light NW flow increases after daybreak toward 15G20kt by mid
morning. Gusts subside after 00Z Sun.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of the start of wind gusts this morning may be off by
1 to 3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR.
Sunday night: Mainly VFR, with a brief period of MVFR possible
late in SHRA. Possible SHSN for KSWF.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain
late in the day and towards evening.
Wednesday: MVFR likely in SHRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Marginal SCA wind gusts are possible on the ocean through
this evening. Ocean seas will remain elevated today and will
likely continue through tonight. Seas east of Fire Island Inlet
should remain around 5 ft Sunday morning. Have extended the SCA
on these zones until 18z Sunday with the ocean west of Fire
Island Inlet running until 11z Sunday. SCA conditions on the
ocean likely return late Sunday night and continue into Monday
with marginal SCA gusts and elevated seas. These conditions
should subside Monday night. The non-ocean waters will see
conditions remain below SCA levels through Monday night.
A brief period of sub SCA conditions is expected into Tuesday.
An approaching frontal system reintroduces SCA conditions to
all waters Tuesday afternoon or evening, with southerly gales
possible on at least the ocean late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week. A mid week frontal system looks to be too progressive to
produce impactful rainfall amounts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS