000
FXUS61 KOKX 241807
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
107 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the north through Sunday. Low
pressure passing well to the north Sunday night will send a warm
front through the area. Weak high pressure briefly follows for
Monday into Monday night, then gives way to a strong frontal
system that impacts the area for midweek. High pressure will
return for the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Updated for current conditions.
A wave of low pressure continues to track south of Long Island
this afternoon with cloud shield moving across Long Island.
High pressure builds toward the area this afternoon. Northerly
flow will usher in a much drier air mass with any lingering
clouds diminishing during the afternoon. A mixed boundary layer
and pressure gradient ahead of the high supports wind gusts
20-25 mph. Highs will end up just shy of normal values for this
time of year in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
The high pressure will continue building towards the eastern
seaboard tonight. Initially radiationally cooling conditions are
not ideal with winds staying up the first half of the night.
Dew points are progged to be in the single digits tonight along
with clear skies. However, winds should weaken considerably late
tonight into early Sunday morning to allow temperatures to fall
into the teens inland and Long Island Pine Barrens with lower
to middle 20s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The surface and upper ridge axis will be overhead on Sunday.
There will be less mixing with the high overhead allowing
temperatures to only rise into the middle to upper 30s for
much of the area. The only exception is the NYC metro and NE NJ
where lower 40s appear likely.
The ridge axis moves offshore Sunday evening. A shortwave
moving across southeast Canada Sunday night into early Monday
morning will send a warm front across the area. The warm front
and shortwave should begin lifting away from New England later
Monday afternoon and evening. Some model guidance has shown a
weak signal for light precip with the warm front passage Sunday
night into Monday morning, mainly north and east of the CWA.
Have largely kept PoPs under 15 percent, but it would not be out
of the question for a few spots to see a few flurries or
sprinkles. Mostly cloudy skies early Monday morning will give
way to mostly sunny conditions late morning into the afternoon.
The passage of the warm front will bring in much milder air with
temperatures likely rising into the 50s across the Lower Hudson
Valley, NE NJ, and NYC metro. Due to some marine influence
further east, temperatures will be a bit lower but still several
degrees above normal in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
Mid and high clouds may start to increase Monday night as a
strong SW flow develops aloft ahead of an amplifying shortwave
over the west. Lows will be above normal in the 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Amplifying shortwave trough tracks east across the CONUS early
to midweek, sending a warm front through the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday and bringing increasing rain chances. The area
gets into the warm sector Wednesday, with the attendant cold
front moving through Wednesday night or early Thursday. High
pressure returns behind it late week.
Still timing differences with the frontal system in the 00Z
suite, with the GEPS the slowest of the globals, the EPS the
fastest, and the GEFS in between. Took the middle approach and
have PoPs gradually increasing Tuesday as the warm front lifts
through, though continue to cap (70%) below NBM given the
guidance discrepancies. Also continued to cut down winds from
NBM Wednesday as the southerly LLJ passes nearby. While a period
of blustery conditions appears likely, especially coastal
eastern locales, BUFKIT soundings indicate a strengthening
inversion inhibiting the strongest of the winds from mixing
down.
A very mild air mass will precede the cold frontal passage
with the region warm sectored on Wednesday. Guidance signals
the potential for parts of the lower Hudson Valley and the NYC
urban metro exceeding 60F, or about 15 to 20 degrees above
normal. The cold front advances east through the region by early
Thursday, and conditions dry out thereafter. An upper ridge
amplifies over the region as surface high pressure builds in
through the start of next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west through Sunday morning,
then offshore in the afternoon.
VFR. Mid level clouds will clear the eastern terminals over the
new 2 to 3 hours.
Winds will be NW-NNW (320-340) at 10-15G15-20kt for much of the
day. Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon with a few
gusts lingering into early this evening. Winds subside tonight
as high pressure builds into the area. Flow goes light and
variable for a period Sunday morning as high pressure passes
through, becoming SW at 10kt or less into the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may become more occasional this afternoon, but may linger
into early this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Afternoon: VFR.
Sunday night: Mainly VFR, with a brief period of MVFR possible
late at KSWF in SHSN.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain
towards evening and at night. S winds increasing with G20-25kt
by morning.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in SHRA. S winds G20-30kt,
strongest at coastal terminals, becoming W/NW Wednesday night.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR early in SHRA. NW winds G25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Made minor adjustments to the wind speeds and gusts across the
forecast waters to reflect current conditions.
A SCA remain in effect on the ocean waters, with marginal SCA
wind gusts on the ocean through this evening. Ocean seas will
remain elevated today and will likely continue through tonight.
Seas east of Fire Island Inlet should remain around 5 ft Sunday
morning. Sub SCA conditions are likely Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening.
SCA conditions on the ocean likely return late Sunday night and
continue into Monday with marginal SCA gusts and elevated seas.
These conditions should subside Monday night. The non- ocean
waters will see conditions remain below SCA levels through
Monday night.
A brief period of sub SCA conditions is expected into Tuesday.
An approaching frontal system reintroduces SCA conditions to
all waters Tuesday afternoon or evening, with southerly gales
possible on at least the ocean late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week. A mid week frontal system looks to be too progressive to
produce impactful rainfall amounts.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS