000
FXUS61 KOKX 242058
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the northwest through Sunday and
then remains off the coast Sunday night into Monday. Low
pressure passes well to the north late Sunday night into Monday
morning, followed by weak high pressure. A warm front
approaches on Tuesday and passes through during Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. This will be followed by a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure then
follows for Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Surface high pressure, and weak upper ridging, builds in from
the northwest tonight. Skies have cleared as a wave of low
pressure tracked south of Long Island this afternoon. A
northerly flow will remain through much of tonight limiting
radiational cooling. However, a cold airmass will be moving into
the region, and overnight lows will average around 5 degrees
below normal.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The surface high and upper ridge axis will move slowly through
the region during Sunday and begin to slide off the coast late
in the day and into Sunday evening. With the high overhead
during the day, and weak warm advection setting up later in the
day, deep mixing will be limited and high temperatures will be
around 5 degrees below normal.

A zonal flow across the area sets up Sunday night as the upper
ridge axis moves into the Western Atlantic. An upper trough will
pass well to the north late Sunday night into early Monday as a
weak surface cold front passes to the north. Moisture will be
limited across the northern portion of the forecast area and
will be continuing with the slight chance probabilities across
the northern tier late Sunday night into early Monday. And with
temperatures cold enough snow showers will be possible.

Warm advection and return flow Monday will allow daytime highs
to be 5 to near 10 degrees above normal.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Low pressure gains strength as is heads NE toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday and shifts through the Great Lakes Region on
Wednesday, continuing NE into Canada on Thursday. Timing of
associated warm and cold front passages still varies among the
deterministic and ensembles, with ECMWF/UKMET/ICON faster and
GFS/Canadian camp slower. Given WPC`s preference for the faster
camp based partly on known flow biases, have skewed the forecast
faster than the NBM. This would have the warm front passing
through part of the forecast area by the end of Tuesday night
(990-985mb low over the eastern Great Lakes by 12z Weds with a
developing llj over us) and continuing to advance north during
Wednesday. The cold front then moves through during the later
hours of Wednesday night, perhaps still over eastern portions of
forecast area Thursday morning.

Rain chances begin Tuesday afternoon, but become likely Tuesday
night with increasing moisture and lift ahead of the warm
front. Likely/categorical PoPs on Wednesday and Wednesday night
with the exiting warm front in the morning followed by the cold
front moving through at night. Still early in the game to have
too much confidence, but so far it appears that the wind gust
potential Weds night into Thursday morning would be limited more
within the advisory category given the strength of the low
level inversion that forecast soundings show.

High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be above
normal, with potential for higher than forecast temperatures on
Wednesday.

Colder on Thursday with lingering PoPs mainly in the morning to
account for uncertainty in fropa timing. High pressure then
builds in for Friday and slides offshore on Saturday. Dry for
Friday, and the potential of an inverted trough extending
northward towards us on Saturday brings slight chance PoPs.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west through Sunday morning,
then offshore in the afternoon.

VFR.

Winds will be NW-NNW (320-340) at 10-15G15-20kt for the
remainder of this afternoon. Gusts have generally been more
occasional than frequent with the exception of KBDR. A few gusts
may linger into early this evening. Winds subside tonight as
high pressure builds into the area. Flow goes light and variable
for a time Sunday morning as high pressure passes through,
becoming SW at 10kt or less into the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts will be more on the occasional side through early this
evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday Afternoon: VFR.

Sunday night: Mainly VFR, with a brief period of MVFR possible late
at KSWF in SHSN.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain
towards evening and at night. S winds increasing with G20-25kt by
morning.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in SHRA. S winds G20-30kt, strongest
at coastal terminals, becoming W/NW Wednesday night.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR early in SHRA. NW winds G25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Small craft seas remain on the ocean waters, and extended the
SCA east of Moriches Inlet until 23Z Sunday, in a diminishing
NW to N flow tonight into Sunday as high pressure builds in from
the north. Seas will gradually subside from west to east tonight
through Sunday with the advisories ending.

Winds will become southerly late Sunday into Sunday night as
high pressure moves offshore. This will allow ocean seas to
build to marginal small craft levels late Sunday night into
Monday, and another SCA may be needed. Wind gusts on the ocean
waters will likely remain just under 25 kt as a low level
inversion sets up limiting mixing over the waters.

Sub-advisory conditions continue into Monday night, then southerly
winds increase ahead of an approaching warm front on Tuesday,
bringing advisory conditions on the ocean waters. Advisory
conditions then spread to the rest of the waters Tuesday night as
winds continue to increase. The warm front passes through sometime
Tuesday night into Weds morning, putting the local waters in the
warm sector with a strengthening llj. Between this and a tightening
pressure gradient ahead of a trailing cold front, there will be a
chance of gales Wednesday through perhaps Thursday morning on most
of the waters. Still some uncertainty regarding timing and how
strong gusts could potentially be given the likelihood of a low
level inversion limiting the potential.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period. The
mid-week storm looks to be too progressive to produce impactful
rainfall amounts.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET