000
FXUS61 KOKX 251145
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
645 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the area today and then pushes
offshore this evening. builds in from the northwest through
Sunday and then remains off the coast Sunday night into Monday.
Low pressure passes well north of the area tonight into Monday.
A warm front approaches on Tuesday and passes through during
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A cold front follows
Wednesday night into early Thursday. Behind it, high pressure
builds in through Friday, with the high tracking offshore into
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track. Surface and upper level ridge axis move over
the area this morning and afternoon before sliding off the
coast this evening. Mixing will be limited with the high over
the region and will limit how much temperatures warm through the
day. Despite full sunshine, highs will be a few degrees below
normal in the upper 30s to low 40s, warmest across NYC metro, NE
NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley.
High pressure continues moving offshore tonight. A shortwave
moving across SE Canada will approach with a weak trailing cold
front/surface trough. Moisture still looks limited and the
models are mainly dry due to the weak lift associated with the
system. Some of the high res guidance indicates light simulated
reflectivities passing across the interior tonight so will leave
in a slight chance PoP. A light snow shower or flurry is
possible there, and it is not out of the question for a brief
flurry/sprinkle elsewhere late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The flow aloft quickly becomes zonal behind the shortwave
passage on Monday. The weak surface trough/front washes out and
the region is left with a warm advection regime. Mostly cloudy
skies likely start the day, but should quickly become mostly
sunny by afternoon. Warmer air will advect into the area through
the day allowing highs to push close to ten degrees above
normal. Highs look to reach the middle 50s for and NYC and NE NJ
with lower 50s elsewhere. Temperatures should be above normal
Monday night and mainly in the 30s except around 40 in the NYC
metro.
An amplifying shortwave trough will begin translating eastward
out of the Rockies Tuesday into Tuesday night. Ahead of the
trough will be an organizing low pressure system over the Plains
that tracks NE towards the Great Lakes region Tuesday night.
The associated warm front will begin to approach Tuesday and
then start lifting across the region Tuesday night. A relatively
flat shortwave is also progged to lift across the northeast
Tuesday night. Tuesday will feature increasing clouds, but the
daytime highs are most likely to remain dry with just a slight
chance for rain late. Highs should be several degrees warmer
compared to Monday with readings reaching the middle and upper
50s along and west of the Hudson River Corridor and lower 50s
east. Rain should become a bit more widespread Tuesday night
with increasing warm advection and the warm front and
aforementioned flat shortwave. The latest model consensus of
PoPs becoming likely overnight west and categorical east appears
reasonable and did not make too much change. Rain amounts
should be light and average around a few tenths.
The pressure gradient Tuesday night increases in response to
the deepening low over the Great Lakes. This will bring a
strengthening low level jet, but model soundings are quite
inverted below these higher winds. The inversion will limit the
mixing overnight, but there still may be some gusts 25-30 mph
near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm front lifts through the region to start the period, likely
bringing some wet weather as it does so. While not a washout,
occasional light rain is possible after this first round
Wednesday, before another moves through ahead of the attendant
cold front. Global guidance is coming into better agreement with
the fropa occurring late Wednesday night or early Thursday
morning, and this is where PoPs are highest. Continued to cut
down winds from NBM as the associated LLJ passes nearby as
profile soundings highlight a strong inversion that should
inhibit the strongest of the winds from mixing down. Still, a
blustery period looks likely Wed/Wed night as the jet passes
east, and it`s possible an advisory could be needed for coastal
zones should confidence grow over the next couple of days.
The cold front advances east through the region by early Thursday,
and conditions dry out thereafter. An upper ridge amplifies over the
region as surface high pressure quickly builds in from the west,
sliding offshore on Friday and setting up SW flow much of the
weekend. There remains potential of an inverted trough extending
north toward the region into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds over the terminals this morning, shifting
offshore later today.
VFR.
Weak NNW flow goes light and variable for several hours starting
around 15Z as the high moves overhead, becoming S/SW at 10 kt
or less into the afternoon.
Clear skies through this evening, a BKN/OVC mid level deck
develops toward 6Z Mon, though cigs expected to remain VFR.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are anticipated.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain
towards evening and at night. S winds increasing with G20-25kt by
morning.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in SHRA. S winds G20-30kt, strongest
at coastal terminals, becoming W/NW Wednesday night.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR early in SHRA. NW winds G25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The SCA west of Fire Island Inlet has been cancelled as winds
and seas have fallen below SCA levels. Seas east of there are
likely still elevated around 5 ft and may persist east of
Moriches Inlet into the afternoon. Have left the remaining SCA
in place for now. Another SCA may be needed on the ocean tonight
into Monday as SW winds increase to just below 25 kt, but seas
likely build to 5 ft. These conditions will subside Monday night
with below SCA winds and seas into Tuesday morning. A stronger
southerly flow develops late Tuesday into Tuesday night with the
next chance of SCA conditions.
Increased S/SW flow Wednesday as the warm front lifts through. This
will lead to widespread SCA conditions, with gales possible on at
least the ocean. Still some uncertainty regarding timing and how
strong gusts could potentially be given the likelihood of a low
level inversion limiting the potential. Flow veers NW and gradually
lightens behind a cold frontal passage into Thursday night. SCA
conditions likely persist though on the ocean waters through late
week with elevated seas.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are currently expected through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS