000
FXUS61 KOKX 251756
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1256 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure pushes offshore this evening. Low pressure passes
well north of the area tonight into Monday. A warm front
approaches on Tuesday and passes through during Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. A cold front follows Wednesday night
into early Thursday. Behind it, high pressure builds in through
Friday, with the high tracking offshore into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast generally on track a further nudge of daytime temps
down by a degree or so based on T trends and latest guidance.
Otherwise, surface and upper level ridge axis slide off the
coast this evening. Mixing will be limited with the high over
the region and will limit how much temperatures warm this
afternoon. Despite full sunshine, highs will be a few degrees
below normal in the mid to upper 30s, warmest across NYC metro
and NE NJ (around 40 degrees).
High pressure continues moving offshore tonight. A shortwave
moving across SE Canada will approach with a weak trailing cold
front/surface trough. Region is on southern edge of
shortwave/ulj lift with limited moisture, presenting potential
for a very light precip event. Latest CAMs are indicating
potential for light showery precip down to the coast, with
better chance across interior between 10z and 15z from w to e.
Thermal profiles generally support snow across far interior, and
rain for NYC/NJ metro, LI, and immediate coastal CT with
onshore flow. Could be a small zone just to the north and west
of 1-95 across NE NJ, Lower Hud, and S CT with enough warning
aloft, but still freezing ground/air temps, for some freezing
rain showers during the morning commute.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The flow aloft quickly becomes zonal behind the shortwave
passage on Monday. The weak surface trough/front washes out and
the region is left with a warm advection regime. Mostly cloudy
skies likely start the day, but should quickly become mostly
sunny by afternoon. Warmer air will advect into the area through
the day allowing highs to push close to ten degrees above
normal. Highs look to reach the middle 50s for and NYC and NE NJ
with lower 50s elsewhere. Temperatures should be above normal
Monday night and mainly in the 30s except around 40 in the NYC
metro.
An amplifying shortwave trough will begin translating eastward
out of the Rockies Tuesday into Tuesday night. Ahead of the
trough will be an organizing low pressure system over the Plains
that tracks NE towards the Great Lakes region Tuesday night.
The associated warm front will begin to approach Tuesday and
then start lifting across the region Tuesday night. A relatively
flat shortwave is also progged to lift across the northeast
Tuesday night. Tuesday will feature increasing clouds, but the
daytime highs are most likely to remain dry with just a slight
chance for rain late. Highs should be several degrees warmer
compared to Monday with readings reaching the middle and upper
50s along and west of the Hudson River Corridor and lower 50s
east. Rain should become a bit more widespread Tuesday night
with increasing warm advection and the warm front and
aforementioned flat shortwave. The latest model consensus of
PoPs becoming likely overnight west and categorical east appears
reasonable and did not make too much change. Rain amounts
should be light and average around a few tenths.
The pressure gradient Tuesday night increases in response to
the deepening low over the Great Lakes. This will bring a
strengthening low level jet, but model soundings are quite
inverted below these higher winds. The inversion will limit the
mixing overnight, but there still may be some gusts 25-30 mph
near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm front lifts through the region to start the period, likely
bringing some wet weather as it does so. While not a washout,
occasional light rain is possible after this first round
Wednesday, before another moves through ahead of the attendant
cold front. Global guidance is coming into better agreement with
the fropa occurring late Wednesday night or early Thursday
morning, and this is where PoPs are highest. Continued to cut
down winds from NBM as the associated LLJ passes nearby as
profile soundings highlight a strong inversion that should
inhibit the strongest of the winds from mixing down. Still, a
blustery period looks likely Wed/Wed night as the jet passes
east, and it`s possible an advisory could be needed for coastal
zones should confidence grow over the next couple of days.
The cold front advances east through the region by early Thursday,
and conditions dry out thereafter. An upper ridge amplifies over the
region as surface high pressure quickly builds in from the west,
sliding offshore on Friday and setting up SW flow much of the
weekend. There remains potential of an inverted trough extending
north toward the region into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the terminals this morning, shifting
offshore later today. A shortwave passes over the area Monday
morning.
VFR.
Generally looking at a S/SW flow at 10 kt or less through the
TAF period.
Mostly clear skies expected through this evening. A BKN/OVC mid
level deck develops toward 06Z Monday as a shortwave passes over
the area. A few light rain showers will be possible towards
daybreak. Have included a prob30 for a chance of a SHRA.
Temperatures north of NYC may be marginal for some freezing
rain. Can not rule out some ice pellets, but confidence too low
to include in the TAF at this time. Any precip quickly comes to
an end with clearing conditions from mid morning into the
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are anticipated.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain
towards evening and at night. S winds increasing with G20-25kt by
morning.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in SHRA. S winds G20-30kt, strongest
at coastal terminals, becoming W/NW Wednesday night.
Thursday: Becoming VFR early. NW winds G25kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA will likely be needed on the ocean later tonight into
Monday as SW winds increase to around 25 kt and seas around 5
ft. These conditions will subside Monday night with below SCA
winds and seas into Tuesday morning. A stronger southerly flow
develops late Tuesday into Tuesday night with the next chance of
SCA conditions.
Increased S/SW flow Wednesday as the warm front lifts through. This
will lead to widespread SCA conditions, with gales possible on at
least the ocean. Still some uncertainty regarding timing and how
strong gusts could potentially be given the likelihood of a low
level inversion limiting the potential. Flow veers NW and gradually
lightens behind a cold frontal passage into Thursday night. SCA
conditions likely persist though on the ocean waters through late
week with elevated seas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are currently expected through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/NV
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS