discussion on 2024-02-25

000
FXUS61 KOKX 252047
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
347 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure slides offshore this evening. Low pressure passes
well north of the area tonight into Monday. A warm front
approaches on Tuesday and passes through during Tuesday night
into Wednesday. A cold front follows Wednesday night. Behind it,
high pressure builds in through Friday. A trough or wave of low
pressure then slowly approaches from the south over the
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Northern stream shortwave slides east from southern Ontario into
southern Quebec tonight, and then across the Northeast on Monday.
At the surface, high pressure slides offshore this evening, with
surface low pressure sliding east through southern Ontario, with
weakening trailing cold approaching in the morning.

Good radiational cooling conditions expected to this evening,
allowing temps to drop well down into the 20s across interior and
pine barrens of LI. Temps will then moderate above freezing late
tonight along the coast in strengthening S/SW flow and
increasing cloud cover. Temps across the interior (away from
maritime influence) will likely rise a bit under cloud cover but
hold in the 20s, while temps in the NYC/NJ metro only bottom in
the mid to upper 30s.

As mentioned earlier, region is on southern edge of shortwave/ulj
lift with limited moisture, presenting potential for a very light
precip event. CAMs are indicating potential for light showery precip
down to the coast, with better chance across interior and
eastern portions of the area between 10z and 16z from west to
east.

Thermal profiles generally support snow with saturation across
far interior, and rain for NYC/NJ metro, LI, and coastal CT with
onshore flow. Could be a small zone just to the north and west
of I-95 across NE NJ, Lower Hud, and S CT with enough warning
aloft, but still freezing ground/air temps, for some freezing
rain showers during the morning commute. Confidence is low on
this event as this is a light and widely scattered precip
event, with sensitivity to subtle timing, saturation, and
profile temp differences. Will highlight spotty icing potential
in HWO, which will be monitored overnight for possible SPS or
short fuse winter weather advisory early Monday morning.

Otherwise, weakening cold front moves through during the afternoon
with drying conditions in its wake. Morning WAA, offshore flow, and
afternoon sunshine should allow temps to rise 6 to 10 degrees
above normal in the lower to mid 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Upper flow aloft become zonal Monday Night into Tuesday, anchored by
an eastward extending subtropical PAC jet, and approaching
series of shortwaves.

At the surface, weak high pressure slides across the region Monday
Night and offshore Tuesday, with developing warm front across the
Mid Atlantic approaching late Tuesday.

An unseasonably mild WAA aloft flow during this time period, with
maritime onshore flow at low-levels. Potential for stratus
development late Monday Night into Tuesday with this set-up, but
otherwise dry and unseasonably mild.

Temps on Tue will be dependent on increasing high cloud cover
and potential stratus. Potential for temps to rise 10 to 15
degrees above normal across interior (upper 50s to lower 60s),
Onshore flow should keep temps in the lower to mid 50s for
city/coast, but still 6 to 10 degrees above normal.

Potential for some light rain to develop as early as late day
Tuesday ahead of approaching warm front.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Global models and ensemble means are coming into better
agreement with the timing of the next system impacting the local
area. GFS/CMC camp has now become more progressive over the
past 24 hours and is now closer to the ECMWF/UKMET/ICON camp
which has been more consistent. Low pressure gains strength as
is heads NE through the Great Lakes Region Tuesday night into
Wednesday and continues NE into Canada Wednesday night and
Thursday. Looks like an attendant warm front may enter
southern/western portions of the forecast area by daybreak
Wednesday. The front then pushes north through the rest of the
forecast area during the day Wednesday with a more favorable
position of the parent low in the vicinity of the eastern Great
Lakes and help with a strengthening low level jet. This will be
followed by a cold front passing through during Wednesday night.

As for sensible weather, rain becomes likely Tuesday night with
increasing moisture and lift ahead of the warm front.
Likely/categorical PoPs continue into Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The could however be a period during Wednesday when rain chances
drop off while in the warm sector of the passing warm front.
Categorical PoPs then follow in the night with the passage of the
cold front. Although lift will be strong, particularly with the cold
front, instability is very limited, so will continue to leave out
thunder from the forecast.

Breezy conditions develop late Tuesday night at the coast, then
spread to the rest of the area Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Forecast soundings continue to show a strong low level inversion,
which will help limit strong wind gust potential. Advisory level
gusts will still be possible mainly over eastern zones and perhaps
other coastal areas late Wednesday into Wednesday night. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be above normal. If partial clearing
occurs in warm sector, temperatures, especially away from the marine
influence, can be around 5 degrees warmer than the current forecast.

Dry behind the cold front on Thursday, but still with gusty winds as
strong cold advection continues. High temperatures returning closer
to normal. High pressure continues the dry weather for us on Friday
with similar high temps and lighter winds. A trough extending
northward towards us on Saturday and Sunday then brings slight
chance PoPs through the period. High temperatures both days are
expected to return to above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure shifts offshore this evening. A shortwave passes over
the area Monday morning.

VFR.

Generally looking at a S/SW flow at 10 kt or less through the TAF
period.

Mostly clear skies expected through this evening. A BKN/OVC mid
level deck develops toward 06Z Monday as a shortwave passes over the
area. A few light rain showers will be possible towards daybreak.
Have included a prob30 for a chance of a SHRA.
Temperatures north of NYC may be marginal for some freezing rain.
Can not rule out some ice pellets, but confidence too low to include
in the TAF at this time. Any precip quickly comes to an end with
clearing conditions from mid morning into the afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are anticipated.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain
towards evening and at night. S winds increasing with G20-25kt by
morning.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in SHRA. S winds G20-30kt, strongest
at coastal terminals, becoming W/NW Wednesday night.

Thursday: Becoming VFR early. NW winds G25kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCA conditions expected on the ocean later tonight into Monday as SW
winds increase to around 25 kt after midnight into Monday AM, with
ocean seas building to around 5 ft. These conditions will subside
Monday night into Tuesday morning as weak high pressure slides
across the area.

A strengthening SE/S flow develops late Tuesday into Tuesday
night with SCA conditions developing. Increased S/SW flow
Wednesday as the warm front lifts through and a low level jet
strengthens. Gales possible on all waters Wednesday into
Wednesday night, but more likely on the ocean and eastern LI
Sound/Bays. A low level inversion likely precludes storm force
winds from occurring. Flow veers NW behind a cold front late
Wednesday night and gradually diminishes through the day
Thursday with gales still possible at least in the morning. A
high pressure center passes nearby on Friday with sub- advisory
conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --A half inch to inch of rainfall is expected from Tuesday night
through Wednesday night with no hydrologic impacts anticipated.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV