000
FXUS61 KOKX 260943
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
443 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes well north of the area today. A warm front
approaches on Tuesday and moves through Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A cold front follows Wednesday night. Behind it, high
pressure builds in through Friday. A trough or wave of low
pressure then slowly approaches from the south over the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Northern stream shortwave slides across the Northeast today. At
the surface, low pressure tracks east through SE Canada, with a
weak trailing cold front approaching this morning. Brief high
pressure builds over the region thereafter into tonight.

Region remains on the southern edge of passing shortwave
dragging a weak front with limited moisture toward the Tri-
State. This presents potential for a bit of light precip this
morning as it advances east. Latest CAMs have backed off on
coverage, and this is supported by surface obs and soundings
profiles indicating lots of low level dry air to work through.
Trimmed back PoPs to slight chance (20%). Still, not out of the
question a few sprinkles move through later this morning. With
temperatures above freezing along the coast, any precip here
would fall as light rain. Across the interior, temperatures are
near the freezing mark (for now), and this presents the
possibility of a light wintry mix. Best chances of seeing any
precip are across interior and eastern portions of the area.
Will continue to monitor obs and hoist a SPS should one be
needed. Temperatures at the surface and aloft climb above
freezing by mid morning everywhere.

Otherwise, weak front moves through during the afternoon with
drying conditions in its wake. Temperatures will be mild for
late February, climbing into the mid 50s across the NYC metro
and the lower Hudson Valley, and around 50 elsewhere with marine
influence. Into tonight, increasing moisture and weak winds may
allow low stratus or fog to develop, but dry conditions are
expected to persist.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper flow aloft becomes zonal into Tuesday, anchored by an
eastward extending subtropical PAC jet, and approaching series
of shortwaves. At the surface, weak high pressure slides across
offshore early Tuesday, with a developing warm front across the
Mid Atlantic approaching late Tuesday.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on increasing high
cloud cover and potential stratus. Onshore flow should keep
temps in the lower to mid 50s for city/coast, but still 6 to 10
degrees above normal.

Low pressure gains strength as is heads NE through the Great
Lakes Region Tuesday night into Wednesday and continues NE into
Canada Wednesday night and Thursday. An attendant warm front
begins to lift through toward daybreak Wednesday, advancing
north through the day with a more favorable position of the
parent low in the vicinity of the eastern Great Lakes and help
with a strengthening low level jet.

As the front approaches, potential for light rain to develop as
early as late day Tuesday. Rain becomes likely Tuesday night
with increasing moisture and lift. Likely/categorical PoPs
continue into Wednesday, though there is likely a lull during
the afternoon Wednesday while in the warm sector of the passing
warm front. In addition,

Breezy conditions develop late Tuesday night at the coast, then
spread to the rest of the area Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Advisory level gusts will still be possible mainly over eastern
zones and perhaps other coastal areas late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The mild air mass behind the warm front will
allow surface temperatures to get into the 50s on Wednesday, and
possible the lower 60s west of the Hudson River. If partial
clearing is able to occur, temperatures away from the marine
influence could be 5 degrees warmer than current forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strengthening low pressure over southeastern Canada heads north
Wednesday night, sending a cold front through the area. This will
also bring a strengthening low level jet into the region, which will
bring a period of windy conditions Wednesday night. Southwest winds
of 20 to 30 mph are possible, with gusts 35 to 45 kt possible until
the front moves through later in the night, with winds diminishing
thereafter as high pressure builds in. Forecast soundings show a low
level inversion, but this may eventually get eroded away, allowing
stronger gusts to mix down to the surface. But there is a very short
period of time when the inversion is fully gone and peak winds mix
down to the surface before winds start to diminish. Still looking at
advisory level gusts mainly over eastern zones and coastal areas
into Wednesday night.

Likely/categorical PoPs continue for Wednesday night until front
moves through. Although lift will be strong, particularly with the
cold front, instability is very limited, so will continue to leave
out thunder from the forecast.

Dry behind the cold front on Thursday, but still with gusty winds as
strong cold advection continues. High temperatures slightly below
normal with cold air advection well underway. High pressure
continues the dry weather for us on Friday with warmer temperatures
and lighter winds. A trough extending northward towards us on
Saturday and Sunday then brings slight chance PoPs through the
period. High temperatures both days are expected to return to above
normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore tonight into this morning as a
shortwave then passes later today.

VFR.

A BKN/OVC mid level deck approaches the terminals from 06Z Monday as
a shortwave passes over the area. A few light rain showers will be
possible towards daybreak. Will maintain the tempos for a few hours
to cover the chance of a SHRA from roughly 09-12Z though cigs/vsbys
remain VFR. Temperatures north and west of NYC may be marginal for
some freezing rain at the onset. Can not completely rule out some
ice pellets, but confidence too low to include in the TAF. Any
precip will be light and spotty, and quickly come to an end with
clearing conditions from mid morning into the afternoon.

Winds will become S/SW at 10 kt or less through the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are anticipated.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR with a chance of rain
towards evening and at night. S winds increasing with G20-25kt by
morning.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in SHRA. S winds G20-30kt, strongest
at coastal terminals, becoming W/NW Wednesday night.

Thursday: Becoming VFR early. NW winds G25kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Marginal SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters today with
seas around 5ft and SW gusts toward 25 kt thru the afternoon.
These conditions improve tonight into Tuesday morning as weak
high pressure slides across the area.

SCA conditions then return Tuesday afternoon on the ocean, and
Tuesday evening on most other waters or night as a warm front
lifts through and southerly flow strengthens. Gales possible on
all waters Wednesday into Wednesday night, but more likely on
the ocean and eastern LI Sound/Bays. A low level inversion will
limit wind gusts for a while, but is forecast to erode Wednesday
night. There is a brief period where an isolated gust to storm
force is possible, especially on the eastern ocean zone
Wednesday night. Flow veers NW behind a cold front late
Wednesday night and gradually diminishes through the day
Thursday with gales still possible at least in the morning. A
high pressure center passes nearby on Friday with sub- advisory
conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A general half inch to one inch of rainfall is expected Tuesday
night through early Thursday, but no hydrologic impacts are
anticipated.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...JP/DR