000
FXUS61 KOKX 261201
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
701 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes well north of the area today. A warm front
approaches on Tuesday and moves through Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A cold front follows Wednesday night. Behind it, high
pressure builds in through Friday. A trough or wave of low
pressure then slowly approaches from the south over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Northern stream shortwave slides across the Northeast today. At
the surface, low pressure tracks east through SE Canada, with a
weak trailing cold front approaching this morning. Brief high
pressure builds over the region thereafter into tonight.
Region remains on the southern edge of passing shortwave
dragging a weak front with limited moisture toward the Tri-
State. This presents potential for a bit of light precip this
morning as it advances east. Latest CAMs have backed off on
coverage, and this is supported by surface obs and soundings
profiles indicating lots of low level dry air to work through.
Trimmed back PoPs to slight chance (20%). Still, not out of the
question a few sprinkles move through later this morning. With
temperatures above freezing along the coast, any precip here
would fall as light rain. Across the interior, temperatures are
near the freezing mark (for now), and this presents the
possibility of a light wintry mix. Best chances of seeing any
precip are across interior. Will continue to monitor obs and
hoist a SPS should one be needed. Temperatures at the surface
and aloft climb above freezing by mid morning everywhere.
Otherwise, weak front moves through during the afternoon with
drying conditions in its wake. Temperatures will be mild for
late February, climbing into the mid 50s across the NYC metro
and the lower Hudson Valley, and around 50 elsewhere with marine
influence. Into tonight, increasing moisture and weak winds may
allow low stratus or fog to develop, but dry conditions are
expected to persist.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper flow aloft becomes zonal into Tuesday, anchored by an
eastward extending subtropical PAC jet, and approaching series
of shortwaves. At the surface, weak high pressure moves offshore
early Tuesday, with a warm front approaching from the Mid
Atlantic late Tuesday.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on increasing high
cloud cover and potential stratus. Onshore flow should keep
highs in the lower to mid 50s for city/coast, but still up to
10 degrees above normal.
Low pressure gains strength as is heads north and east through
the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. An attendant warm
front begins to lift through toward daybreak Wednesday, advancing
north through the day with a more favorable position of the
parent low in the vicinity of the eastern Great Lakes and help
with a strengthening low level jet.
As the front approaches, potential for light rain to develop as
early as late day Tuesday, becoming likely Tuesday night with
increasing moisture and lift. Likely/categorical PoPs continue
into Wednesday, though there is likely a lull during the
afternoon Wednesday while in the warm sector of the passing warm
front. In addition,
Breezy conditions develop late Tuesday night at the coast, then
spread to the rest of the area Wednesday. The mild air mass
behind the warm front will allow surface temperatures to get
into the 50s on Wednesday, and possibly the lower 60s west of
the Hudson River. If partial clearing is able to occur,
temperatures away from the marine influence could be 5 degrees
warmer than current forecast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strengthening low pressure over southeastern Canada heads north
Wednesday night, sending a cold front through the area. This will
also bring a strengthening low level jet into the region, which will
bring a period of windy conditions Wednesday night. Southwest winds
of 20 to 30 mph are possible, with gusts 35 to 45 kt possible until
the front moves through later in the night, with winds diminishing
thereafter as high pressure builds in. Forecast soundings show a low
level inversion, but this may eventually get eroded away, allowing
stronger gusts to mix down to the surface. But there is a very short
period of time when the inversion is fully gone and peak winds mix
down to the surface before winds start to diminish. Still looking at
advisory level gusts mainly over eastern zones and coastal areas
into Wednesday night.
Likely/categorical PoPs continue for Wednesday night until front
moves through. Although lift will be strong, particularly with the
cold front, instability is very limited, so will continue to leave
out thunder from the forecast.
Dry behind the cold front on Thursday, but still with gusty winds as
strong cold advection continues. High temperatures slightly below
normal with cold air advection well underway. High pressure
continues the dry weather for us on Friday with warmer temperatures
and lighter winds. A trough extending northward towards us on
Saturday and Sunday then brings slight chance PoPs through the
period. High temperatures both days are expected to return to above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure shifts offshore tonight into this morning as a
shortwave then passes later today.
VFR.
A BKN/OVC mid level deck for the terminals through this morning,
with clouds decreasing this afternoon.
Snow showers or sleet is possible at KSWF through around 14Z
with a TEMPO group for this possibility. Snow or sleet is
possible at KHPN as well, but less confident here, so did not
add a TEMPO group. All other terminals, a rain shower is
possible, but not confident enough to include in TAFs.
Winds will be S/SW at 10 kt or less, then shift to the SE and E
overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: MVFR possible in the morning, a chance of rain towards
evening and at night. S winds increasing with G20-25kt by
the afternoon.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in SHRA. S winds G20-30kt, strongest
at coastal terminals, becoming W/NW Wednesday night.
Thursday: Becoming VFR early. NW winds G25kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Marginal SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters today with
seas around 5 ft and SW gusts toward 25 kt thru the afternoon.
These conditions improve this evening into Tuesday morning as
weak high pressure slides across the area.
SCA conditions then return Tuesday afternoon on the ocean, and
Tuesday evening on most other waters or night as a warm front
lifts through and southerly flow strengthens. Gales possible on
all waters Wednesday into Wednesday night, but more likely on
the ocean and eastern LI Sound/Bays. A low level inversion will
limit wind gusts for a while, but is forecast to erode Wednesday
night. There is a brief period where an isolated gust to storm
force is possible, especially on the eastern ocean zone
Wednesday night. Flow veers NW behind a cold front late
Wednesday night and gradually diminishes through the day
Thursday with gales still possible at least in the morning. A
high pressure center passes nearby on Friday with sub- advisory
conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A general half inch to one inch of rainfall is expected Tuesday
night through early Thursday, but no hydrologic impacts are
anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...JP/DR