000
FXUS61 KOKX 261442
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
942 AM EST Mon Feb 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes well north of the area today. A warm front
approaches on Tuesday and moves through Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A cold front follows Wednesday night. Behind it, high
pressure builds in through Friday. A trough or wave of low
pressure then slowly approaches from the south over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Based on current radar presentation of showers moving through
the area, increased PoPs slightly upward for the coast where
showers will move through over the next few hours. Temperatures
have warmed nicely ahead of them as there is minimal cloud cover
outside of the showers themselves. Any remaining precipitation
will be in the form of rain.
Northern stream shortwave slides across the Northeast today. At
the surface, low pressure tracks east through SE Canada, with a
weak trailing cold front approaching this morning. Brief high
pressure builds over the region thereafter into tonight.
The area remains on the southern edge of passing shortwave
dragging a weak front through the Tri-State. The weak front
moves through during the afternoon with drying conditions in
its wake. Temperatures will be mild for late February, climbing
into the mid 50s across the NYC metro and the lower Hudson
Valley, and around 50 elsewhere with marine influence. Into
tonight, increasing moisture and weak winds may allow low
stratus or fog to develop, but dry conditions are expected to
persist.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper flow aloft becomes zonal into Tuesday, anchored by an
eastward extending subtropical PAC jet, and approaching series
of shortwaves. At the surface, weak high pressure moves offshore
early Tuesday, with a warm front approaching from the Mid
Atlantic late Tuesday.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on increasing high
cloud cover and potential stratus. Onshore flow should keep
highs in the lower to mid 50s for city/coast, but still up to
10 degrees above normal.
Low pressure gains strength as is heads north and east through
the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. An attendant warm
front begins to lift through toward daybreak Wednesday, advancing
north through the day with a more favorable position of the
parent low in the vicinity of the eastern Great Lakes and help
with a strengthening low level jet.
As the front approaches, potential for light rain to develop as
early as late day Tuesday, becoming likely Tuesday night with
increasing moisture and lift. Likely/categorical PoPs continue
into Wednesday, though there is likely a lull during the
afternoon Wednesday while in the warm sector of the passing warm
front. In addition,
Breezy conditions develop late Tuesday night at the coast, then
spread to the rest of the area Wednesday. The mild air mass
behind the warm front will allow surface temperatures to get
into the 50s on Wednesday, and possibly the lower 60s west of
the Hudson River. If partial clearing is able to occur,
temperatures away from the marine influence could be 5 degrees
warmer than current forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strengthening low pressure over southeastern Canada heads north
Wednesday night, sending a cold front through the area. This will
also bring a strengthening low level jet into the region, which will
bring a period of windy conditions Wednesday night. Southwest winds
of 20 to 30 mph are possible, with gusts 35 to 45 kt possible until
the front moves through later in the night, with winds diminishing
thereafter as high pressure builds in. Forecast soundings show a low
level inversion, but this may eventually get eroded away, allowing
stronger gusts to mix down to the surface. But there is a very short
period of time when the inversion is fully gone and peak winds mix
down to the surface before winds start to diminish. Still looking at
advisory level gusts mainly over eastern zones and coastal areas
into Wednesday night.
Likely/categorical PoPs continue for Wednesday night until front
moves through. Although lift will be strong, particularly with the
cold front, instability is very limited, so will continue to leave
out thunder from the forecast.
Dry behind the cold front on Thursday, but still with gusty winds as
strong cold advection continues. High temperatures slightly below
normal with cold air advection well underway. High pressure
continues the dry weather for us on Friday with warmer temperatures
and lighter winds. A trough extending northward towards us on
Saturday and Sunday then brings slight chance PoPs through the
period. High temperatures both days are expected to return to above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as low pressure passes well north today.
Band of mixed precip traversing the area attm should impact
mainly KHPN/KBDR/KGON before 15Z-16Z. Associated cloud deck
should clear the NYC metro area and points NW by midday, and an
hr or two later out east.
Mainly SW winds 10 kt or less expected through this afternoon,
perhaps a little stronger at KISP where there have also been
some gusts over 20 kt. Winds diminish and back S this evening,
then become light SE-E overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: MVFR cond possible in the morning, also chance of rain
late day and at night. S winds increasing to G20-25kt by
afternoon.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower cond likely in showers. S winds
G20-30kt, strongest at the coastal terminals, becoming W-NW at
night.
Thursday: Becoming VFR early. NW winds G25kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Marginal SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters today with
seas around 5 ft and SW winds gusting toward 25 kt thru the
afternoon. These conditions improve this evening into Tuesday
morning as weak high pressure slides across the area.
SCA conditions then return Tuesday afternoon on the ocean, and
Tuesday evening on most other waters or night as a warm front
lifts through and southerly flow strengthens. Gales possible on
all waters Wednesday into Wednesday night, but more likely on
the ocean and eastern LI Sound/Bays. A low level inversion will
limit wind gusts for a while, but is forecast to erode Wednesday
night. There is a brief period where an isolated gust to storm
force is possible, especially on the eastern ocean zone
Wednesday night. Flow veers NW behind a cold front late
Wednesday night and gradually diminishes through the day
Thursday with gales still possible at least in the morning. A
high pressure center passes nearby on Friday with sub- advisory
conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A general half inch to one inch of rainfall is expected Tuesday
night through early Thursday, but no hydrologic impacts are
anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/MW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BG/JP
MARINE...JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...JP/DR