000
FXUS61 KOKX 262053
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
353 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front passes through the area Tuesday into Tuesday night
followed by a strong cold front moving through sometime late
Wednesday evening through Wednesday night. Behind it, high
pressure builds in and remains in control through at least Friday.
An inverted trough or wave of low pressure could then bring
unsettled weather over the weekend into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Weak high pressure continues to make its way offshore tonight with
dry conditions and generally clear skies to begin the overnight
period. Warm temperatures from today will rapidly fall off tonight
as light flow and clear skies allow for some radiational cooling,
especially for inland areas. Lows will be in the low to middle
30s for inland areas to the north. Coastal and southern areas
will have lows in the middle to upper 30s.

Low level moisture will remain in place, so any areas that cool
enough may develop some patchy fog. Cloud cover is expected to
increase later in the night with the potential development of
low stratus that makes its way onshore toward morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The high pressure will shift offshore by Tuesday with a large low
pressure system developing over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region. The warm front associated with this large and strengthening
low pressure system will approach the area from the southwest into
Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be highly dependent on
the cloud cover. If low stratus sticks around for coastal areas and
take a while to burn off, highs will only rise into the low 50s.
Inland areas to the west are more likely to see sunshine at some
point Tuesday which may aide temperatures rising into the middle to
upper 50s.  Temps near 60 can`t be ruled out for portions of NE NJ.

The warm front approaches from the southwest into the afternoon
bringing a brisk southerly flow, increased low level moisture
advection, increased cloud cover and a chance of showers. As the
front makes its way through the area overnight, the chance of
showers will expand east and increase into the evening and overnight
period. increasing deep SW flow in the lower atmosphere will
continue to advect warm air and ample moisture into the area Tuesday
night. This will result in low temperatures likely not dropping
below the upper 40s for most. Tuesday night does not look like a
washout but there will be areas of showers possible for the entire
region as the warm front moves through and the warm sector of the
low pressure moves over the area. Additionally, thunder can not be
completely ruled out for any heavier showers overnight Tuesday in
the western portions of the area, but opted to not include in the
forecast as the chance remains to low at this time.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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By Wednesday morning the area will be in the warm sector as a strong
cold front and upper level trough approach from the west. A
tightening pressure gradient at the surface and a strengthening LLJ
will bring gusty S/SW winds to the area. 12z guidance shows the LLJ
peaking around 65 to 75 kt at 925mb Wednesday afternoon. Model
soundings do show an inversion, which will be stronger for eastern
locations given the strong S/SW flow off of the cold waters. Current
wind gust forecast for Wednesday is right around Wind Advisory
criteria (40 kt) for the southern Long Island coast and southeast CT
coast. Rain showers will be ongoing Wednesday morning and likely
continue through the day, although a complete washout is not
expected.

The strong cold front is expected to pass through the area sometime
late Wednesday evening through Wednesday night. With the passage
expect a period of moderate rain showers and a northwesterly wind
shift that will quickly bring in a cold and dry airmass. Continued
to leave out thunder as there is not much in the way of instability
in model soundings. Gusts will likely be a bit stronger behind the
cold front and this would be the best chance at seeing advisory
level winds across much of the area. As cold air quickly moves in,
there will also be a changeover as the precipitation exits the area.
Expect the precip to end as snow or a rain/snow mix. Little to no
snow accumulation is expected. Given the rain and then a quick drop
in temperature, there is some concern for icy conditions Wednesday
night and this will have to be monitored. This will depend on the
end time of precip and if there is enough time for winds to dry out
the ground. This is mainly a concern across the interior.

High pressure builds in at the surface on Thursday as heights rise
aloft. Dry and mostly sunny conditions are expected through Friday
as high pressure remains in control. Model spread then starts to
increase a bit heading into the weekend and early next week. There
is general agreement in unsettled weather returning with an inverted
trough or wave of slow pressure approaching from the south.
Differences exist in timing and strength. Stuck close to the NBM for
now for that time frame, which carries slight chance to chance PoPs.
Any precip would be plain rain.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure to the north will shift east of New England tonight as
a warm front develops to the south. The front will lift through in
the afternoon.

S-SW flow 10 kt or less will diminish and become S this evening,
then back SE-E overnight and become light.

Uncertain forecast re flight cat late tonight into Tue morning, with
tonight being the first night of onshore SE-E flow which does not
usually bring lower conditions, but with a warm front developing
just to the south which does. Think a period of at least MVFR
restriction is possible, and cannot rule out IFR especially E of the
NYC metros. Timing at the NYC metros roughly 10Z-14Z, but beginning
as early as 06Z at KGON and 08Z at KBDR/KISP.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected. Pockets of IFR possible 10Z-14Z
especially at or invof KJFK/KLGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon: VFR. S winds 15G20kt at KJFK/KISP.

Tuesday night: MVFR cond expected, IFR cond possible at the Long
Island/CT terminals. S winds increasing to 15-20kt inland and 20-
25G30kt at the coast.

Wednesday: IFR cond likely in rain. S winds G25-35kt, strongest at
the coastal terminals

Wednesday night: IFR cond likely in rain, possibly ending briefly as
snow after midnight. S winds G25-35kt, strongest at the coastal
terminals, shifting W-NW after midnight.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G30-35kt in the morning, diminishing to
G25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday night: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt early.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Chance of rain. MVFR cond possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through tonight with a
weak pressure gradient overhead, through a stray 5 foot wave remains
possible through this evening on the ocean. More widespread SCA
conditions develop on the oceans after 18Z Tuesday, eventually
expanding to all waters by 00Z as gusts of at least 25kt encompass
the area ahead of the approaching frontal system. Winds will
continue to increase Tuesday night to near gale force on the ocean
by Wednesday morning. Seas on the ocean will quickly rise from 5-7
feet Tuesday afternoon to 10-12 feet by Wednesday morning.

A Gale Watch is now in effect for Wednesday and Wednesday night on
all waters except the NY Harbor. A southerly flow will increase
ahead of a cold front during the day on Wednesday, with mainly 35 to
40 kt gusts on the ocean waters, occasionally up to 45 kt. On all
other waters gusts will be mainly 35 kt, except in the NY Harbor
where gusts will be mainly 30 to 35 kt. Then behind the cold front
winds become northwesterly and gust 35 to 40 kt on all waters. Waves
will build on Wednesday, reaching 15 to 17 feet by Wednesday evening
on the ocean waters.

Gale conditions likely end by Thursday morning, with the potential
for lingering 35 kt gusts on the ocean waters. SCA conditions will
then continue through Thursday on all waters and through the first
half of Thursday night on the ocean as seas slowly lower.

There is potential for unsettled weather to return to the area this
weekend into early next week, which could bring periods of SCA
conditions.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There will be a period of moderate rain showers as a strong cold
front moves through sometime late Wednesday evening through
Wednesday night, but no hydrologic impacts are expected.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ331-332-335-340.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
     for ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ345-350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW