000
FXUS61 KOKX 270932
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
432 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front lifts through the area into tonight, followed by a
strong cold front Wednesday evening through early Thursday
morning. Behind it, high pressure builds in and remains in
control through at least Friday. An inverted trough or wave of
low pressure could then bring unsettled weather over the weekend
into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Patchy to locally dense fog has developed across portions of
Long Island and southern Connecticut and may continue to reduce
vsbys into the morning. Temperatures have climbed above the
freezing mark in these areas though, and the threat for freezing
fog has likely concluded. Will continue to monitor should a SPS
or Advisory be needed.

Otherwise, high pressure shifts offshore today with low pressure
developing over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The
warm front associated with this low approaches from the southwest,
lifting through this evening and tonight. High temperatures will
be highly dependent on the cloud cover. If low stratus sticks
around for coastal areas and take a while to burn off, highs
may only get into the low 50s. Inland areas to the west are
more likely to see sunshine may allow temperatures to get into the
middle to upper 50s.

The warm front approaches from the southwest into the afternoon
bringing a brisk southerly flow, increased low level moisture
advection, increased cloud cover and a chance of showers. As the
front makes its way through the area, showers expand in coverage
into the evening and overnight period, quickly becoming likely
after 00Z based on latest CAMs. Increasing deep SW flow in the
lower atmosphere will continue to advect warm air and ample
moisture into the area tonight and keep temperatures in the 40s
or low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The region is in the warm sector of this system on Wednesday
ahead of the incoming trough and cold frontal passage late
Wednesday evening and night. A tightening pressure gradient at
the surface and a strengthening LLJ, progged around 65 to 75 kt
at 925 mb Wednesday afternoon will lead to gusty conditions at
the surface. Soundings continue to indicate a strong inversion
that should cut down the strength of these gusts at the surface,
but likely still allow gusts to exceed 35 kt, especially as the
cold front advances east. Wind Advisory is possible at least
for eastern coastal areas, but still some time left to fine tune
this. Rain showers will be ongoing Wednesday morning and likely
continue intermittently through the day, although a complete
washout is not expected.

The strong cold front is expected to pass through the area late
Wednesday evening through Wednesday night. With the passage
expect a period of moderate rain showers and a northwesterly
wind shift that will quickly bring in a cold and dry airmass.
Continued to leave out thunder as there is not much in the way
of instability in model soundings. Gusts will likely be a bit
stronger behind the cold front and this would be the best chance
at seeing advisory level winds across much of the area. As cold
air quickly moves in, there will also be a changeover as the
precipitation exits the area. Should the cold air arrive in
time, remains possible the precip could taper as a few snow or
rain/snow showers across the interior. Little to no accumulation
if this were to occur. Also some concern for icy conditions
Wednesday night depend on the end time of precip and if there
is enough time for winds to dry out the ground. Conditions dry
Wednesday night as the front quickly sweeps east and
temperatures fall into the 20s and lower 30s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds in at the surface on Thursday as heights
rise aloft. Dry and mostly sunny conditions are expected through
Friday as high pressure remains in control. Model spread then
starts to increase a bit heading into the weekend and early next
week. There is general agreement in unsettled weather returning
with an inverted trough or wave of slow pressure approaching
from the south. Differences exist in timing and strength. Stuck
close to the NBM for now for that time frame, which carries
slight chance to chance PoPs. Any precip would be plain rain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A warm front develops to the south early this morning and passes
through during this afternoon. Another warm front moves through late
tonight into Wednesday morning.

SE-E winds under 10kt through most of the morning. Winds shift back
south this afternoon and increase. LLWS tonight.

Mostly VFR through the night. Tempo or prevailing MVFR at the NYC
metros roughly 10Z-14Z, but VLIFR currently occurring at KGON/KISP
and IFR or lower probably reaches KBDR by 09Z-10Z. A return to VFR
everywhere by the end of the morning, then flight categories lower
relatively quickly starting late this aftn and early evening with
rain.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset of MVFR or tempo MVFR may occur a couple of hours earlier than
forecast. Still a chance of IFR from approx 10Z-14Z, with somewhat
better chances over at KJFK/KLGA. Still a low chance that sub-VFR
doesn`t occur at all this morning, but overall higher confidence in
sub-VFR at some point this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: IFR and rain. S winds increasing to around 15kt inland
and around 20kt at the coast. Gusts 25-G30kt at the coast. LLWS.

Wednesday: IFR cond likely in rain. S winds G25-35kt, strongest at
the coastal terminals. LLWS.

Wednesday night: IFR cond likely in rain, possibly ending briefly as
snow after midnight. S winds G25-35kt, strongest at the coastal
terminals, shifting W-NW after midnight. LLWS in the evening.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G30-35kt in the morning, diminishing to
G25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday night: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt early.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Chance of rain. MVFR cond possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal system
today allows SCA conditions to develop on the ocean toward 18Z,
expanding to all waters by 00Z. Winds will continue to increase
tonight to near gale force on the ocean by Wednesday morning.
Seas on the ocean quickly rise from 5 to 7 feet this afternoon,
and 10 to 12 feet by Wednesday morning.

Gale gusts likely on most waters Wednesday as flow increases
ahead of a cold front, with mainly 35 to 40 kt gusts on the
ocean waters, occasionally up to 45 kt. Seas reach 15 to 17 ft
by Wednesday evening on the ocean. Have upgraded to Gale Warning
on all waters but the NY Harbor, where confidence is lowest at
this stage for frequent 35 kt gusts. The warning runs 11Z Wed
thru 11Z Thu. On the Harbor, Gale Watch was issued beginning 23Z
Wed.

Gale conditions likely end by Thursday morning, with the potential
for lingering 35 kt gusts on the ocean waters. SCA conditions will
then continue through Thursday on all waters and through the first
half of Thursday night on the ocean as seas slowly lower.

There is potential for unsettled weather to return to the area this
weekend into early next week, which could bring periods of SCA
conditions.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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A period of rain showers is expected as a frontal system moves
through the region this evening through Wednesday night. Total
expected rainfall is generally between 0.75 and 1.5 inches.
Outside the potential for brief nuisance flooding of urban and
poor drainage locales, no other significant hydrologic impacts
are expected.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-340.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ338.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night
     for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ345-350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...DR