000
FXUS61 KOKX 271513
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1013 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through the area into tonight, followed by a
strong cold front Wednesday evening through early Thursday
morning. Behind it, high pressure builds in and remains in
control through at least Friday. An inverted trough or wave of
low pressure could then bring unsettled weather over the weekend
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fog continues to burn off this morning with improving
conditions. Adjusted high temperatures upwards slightly with
mostly clear skies expected after the fog and low stratus burn
off later this morning, though high temperatures will be highly
dependent on the duration of the cloud cover. Highs are expected
to be in the middle to upper 50s for Long Island and S CT and
upper 50s to near 60 for the NYC metro, NE NJ, and the Lower
Hudson Valley.
High pressure shifts offshore today with low pressure
developing over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The
warm front associated with this low approaches from the
southwest, lifting through this evening and tonight.
The warm front approaches from the southwest into the afternoon
bringing a brisk southerly flow, increased low level moisture
advection, increased cloud cover, and a chance of showers. As
the front makes its way through the area, showers expand in
coverage into the evening and overnight period, quickly becoming
likely after 00Z based on latest CAMs. Increasing deep SW flow
in the lower atmosphere will continue to advect warm air and
ample moisture into the area tonight and keep temperatures in
the 40s or low 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The region is in the warm sector of this system on Wednesday
ahead of the incoming trough and cold frontal passage late
Wednesday evening and night. A tightening pressure gradient at
the surface and a strengthening LLJ, progged around 65 to 75 kt
at 925 mb Wednesday afternoon will lead to gusty conditions at
the surface. Soundings continue to indicate a strong inversion
that should cut down the strength of these gusts at the surface,
but likely still allow gusts to exceed 35 kt, especially as the
cold front advances east. Wind Advisory is possible at least
for eastern coastal areas, but still some time left to fine tune
this. Rain showers will be ongoing Wednesday morning and likely
continue intermittently through the day, although a complete
washout is not expected.
The strong cold front is expected to pass through the area late
Wednesday evening through Wednesday night. With the passage
expect a period of moderate rain showers and a northwesterly
wind shift that will quickly bring in a cold and dry airmass.
Continued to leave out thunder as there is not much in the way
of instability in model soundings. Gusts will likely be a bit
stronger behind the cold front and this would be the best chance
at seeing advisory level winds across much of the area. As cold
air quickly moves in, there will also be a changeover as the
precipitation exits the area. Should the cold air arrive in
time, remains possible the precip could taper as a few snow or
rain/snow showers across the interior. Little to no accumulation
if this were to occur. Also some concern for icy conditions
Wednesday night depend on the end time of precip and if there
is enough time for winds to dry out the ground. Conditions dry
Wednesday night as the front quickly sweeps east and
temperatures fall into the 20s and lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in at the surface on Thursday as heights
rise aloft. Dry and mostly sunny conditions are expected through
Friday as high pressure remains in control. Model spread then
starts to increase a bit heading into the weekend and early next
week. There is general agreement in unsettled weather returning
with an inverted trough or wave of slow pressure approaching
from the south. Differences exist in timing and strength. Stuck
close to the NBM for now for that time frame, which carries
slight chance to chance PoPs. Any precip would be plain rain.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A warm front is lifting through the area attm. KEWR/KJFK/KISP
have improved to VFR. KTEB/KLGA/KHPN and terminals along the CT
coast should follow suit by 17Z.
Light E-SE flow should shift more SE-S this afternoon and
increase to around 10 kt. Winds start to increase late this
afternoon into tonight to 15-20kt and gusts 20-30 kt. LLWS
tonight with southerly winds at around 2000 ft increasing to 50
kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KLGA could hang onto lower conditions an hour longer than fcst.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: IFR cond expected in rain. S winds G25-35kt,
strongest at the coastal terminals. LLWS at the coastal
terminals.
Wednesday night: IFR cond likely in rain, possibly ending briefly as
snow after midnight. S winds G25-35kt, strongest at the coastal
terminals, shifting W-NW after midnight. LLWS in the evening.
Thursday: VFR. NW winds G30-35kt in the morning, diminishing to
G25kt in the afternoon.
Thursday night: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt early.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of rain. MVFR cond possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Dense fog is leading to vsbys at or under a mile this morning on
most waters, hoisted an advisory thru 15Z (exception NY harbor),
with gradual improvement expected late this morning. Increasing
southerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal system today
allows SCA conditions to develop on the ocean toward 18Z,
expanding to all waters by 00Z. Winds will continue to increase
tonight to near gale force on the ocean by Wednesday morning.
Seas on the ocean quickly rise from 5 to 7 feet this afternoon,
and 10 to 12 feet by Wednesday morning.
Gale gusts likely on most waters Wednesday as flow increases
ahead of a cold front, with mainly 35 to 40 kt gusts on the
ocean waters, occasionally up to 45 kt. Seas reach 15 to 17 ft
by Wednesday evening on the ocean. Have upgraded to Gale Warning
on all waters but the NY Harbor, where confidence is lowest at
this stage for frequent 35 kt gusts. The warning runs 11Z Wed
thru 11Z Thu. On the Harbor, Gale Watch was issued beginning 23Z
Wed.
Gale conditions likely end by Thursday morning, with the potential
for lingering 35 kt gusts on the ocean waters. SCA conditions will
then continue through Thursday on all waters and through the first
half of Thursday night on the ocean as seas slowly lower.
There is potential for unsettled weather to return to the area this
weekend into early next week, which could bring periods of SCA
conditions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A period of rain showers is expected as a frontal system moves
through the region this evening through Wednesday night. Total
expected rainfall is generally between 0.75 and 1.5 inches.
Outside the potential for brief nuisance flooding of urban and
poor drainage locales, no other significant hydrologic impacts
are expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-332-
335-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-340.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for
ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Wednesday for ANZ338.
Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night
for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR/MW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BG/JP
MARINE...JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...JP/DR