000
FXUS61 KOKX 271811
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
111 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through the area into tonight, followed by a
strong cold front Wednesday evening through early Thursday
morning. Behind it, high pressure builds in and remains in
control through at least Friday. An inverted trough or wave of
low pressure could then bring unsettled weather over the weekend
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains generally on track with some adjustments to
temperature and dew points to reflect the most recent
observations.

High pressure shifts offshore today with low pressure
developing over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The
warm front associated with this low approaches from the
southwest, lifting through this evening and tonight.

The warm front approaches from the southwest into the afternoon
bringing a brisk southerly flow, increased low level moisture
advection, increased cloud cover, and a chance of showers. As
the front makes its way through the area, showers expand in
coverage into the evening and overnight period, quickly becoming
likely after 00Z based on latest CAMs. Increasing deep SW flow
in the lower atmosphere will continue to advect warm air and
ample moisture into the area tonight and keep temperatures in
the 40s or low 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The region is in the warm sector of this system on Wednesday
ahead of the incoming trough and cold frontal passage late
Wednesday evening and night. A tightening pressure gradient at
the surface and a strengthening LLJ, progged around 65 to 75 kt
at 925 mb Wednesday afternoon will lead to gusty conditions at
the surface. Soundings continue to indicate a strong inversion
that should cut down the strength of these gusts at the surface,
but likely still allow gusts to exceed 35 kt, especially as the
cold front advances east. Wind Advisory is possible at least
for eastern coastal areas, but still some time left to fine tune
this. Rain showers will be ongoing Wednesday morning and likely
continue intermittently through the day, although a complete
washout is not expected.

The strong cold front is expected to pass through the area late
Wednesday evening through Wednesday night. With the passage
expect a period of moderate rain showers and a northwesterly
wind shift that will quickly bring in a cold and dry airmass.
Continued to leave out thunder as there is not much in the way
of instability in model soundings. Gusts will likely be a bit
stronger behind the cold front and this would be the best chance
at seeing advisory level winds across much of the area. As cold
air quickly moves in, there will also be a changeover as the
precipitation exits the area. Should the cold air arrive in
time, remains possible the precip could taper as a few snow or
rain/snow showers across the interior. Little to no accumulation
if this were to occur. Also some concern for icy conditions
Wednesday night depend on the end time of precip and if there
is enough time for winds to dry out the ground. Conditions dry
Wednesday night as the front quickly sweeps east and
temperatures fall into the 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in at the surface on Thursday as heights
rise aloft. Dry and mostly sunny conditions are expected through
Friday as high pressure remains in control. Model spread then
starts to increase a bit heading into the weekend and early next
week. There is general agreement in unsettled weather returning
with an inverted trough or wave of slow pressure approaching
from the south. Differences exist in timing and strength. Stuck
close to the NBM for now for that time frame, which carries
slight chance to chance PoPs. Any precip would be plain rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front is lifting through the area attm. KBDR suddenly
improved from VLIFR to VFR right before 18Z. Winds where the
front makes it through should also shift SE and then S this
afternoon with speeds close to 10 kt, except closer to
15G20-25kt at KJFK/KISP.

Rain moving in tonight should quickly lower conditions to MVFR
and then IFR/LIFR by late evening or overnight, with S flow
15-20G25kt along the coast and 10-15G20kt inland. LLWS with low
level S winds up to 45-50 kt tonight into Wed AM looks confined
to KJFK and points east.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled AMD possible this evening to adjust arrival time of
rain and associated lower flight cat. Improvement to MVFR
possible after 16Z Wed.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday afternoon/evening: MVFR from the NYC metros
north/west, IFR to the east at the Long Island/CT terminals. S
winds G35-40kt along the coast (with LLWS) and 30-35 kt inland.

Late Wednesday night: Rain ending, with cond improving from
MVFR to VFR from west to east. Rain could briefly mix with snow
before ending. W winds G30-35kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds 20-25G30-35kt in the morning,
diminishing to 15-20G25kt late in the afternoon.

Thursday night: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt early.

Friday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt along the coast.

Saturday: Chance of rain. MVFR cond possible.

Sunday: Slight chance of rain. Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal
system today allows SCA conditions to develop on the ocean
toward 18Z, expanding to all waters by 00Z. Winds will continue
to increase tonight to near gale force on the ocean by Wednesday
morning. Seas on the ocean quickly rise from 5 to 7 feet this
afternoon, and 10 to 12 feet by Wednesday morning.

Gale gusts likely on most waters Wednesday as flow increases
ahead of a cold front, with mainly 35 to 40 kt gusts on the
ocean waters, occasionally up to 45 kt. Seas reach 15 to 17 ft
by Wednesday evening on the ocean. Have upgraded to Gale Warning
on all waters but the NY Harbor, where confidence is lowest at
this stage for frequent 35 kt gusts. The warning runs 11Z Wed
thru 11Z Thu. On the Harbor, Gale Watch was issued beginning 23Z
Wed.

Gale conditions likely end by Thursday morning, with the potential
for lingering 35 kt gusts on the ocean waters. SCA conditions will
then continue through Thursday on all waters and through the first
half of Thursday night on the ocean as seas slowly lower.

There is potential for unsettled weather to return to the area this
weekend into early next week, which could bring periods of SCA
conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A period of rain showers is expected as a frontal system moves
through the region this evening through Wednesday night. Total
expected rainfall is generally between 0.75 and 1.5 inches.
Outside the potential for brief nuisance flooding of urban and
poor drainage locales, no other significant hydrologic impacts
are expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-340.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ338.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night
     for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ345-350-
     353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR/MW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...JP/DR