000
FXUS61 KOKX 272051
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front continues moving northward tonight followed by a strong
cold frontal passage Wednesday night. Behind it, high pressure
builds in and remains in control through at least Friday. An
inverted trough or wave of low pressure could then bring unsettled
weather over the weekend into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A warm front continues to make northward progress through the area
into tonight. A line of showers approaching from the west over
central PA will begin to move into the western portions of the area
this evening. These showers will continue to make eastward progress
while eventually expanding in both coverage and intensity as forcing
from the warm front and low level WAA should aide in the expansion
and intensification.
As the area remains in the warm sector of the approaching low, a
strengthening LLJ will develop over the eastern half of the area.
This LLJ will help to rapidly advect low level moisture into the
area which should allow for the continued development of showers
through the night. There even remains a possibility of some isolated
thunder in the development of any heavier convective showers
into early Wednesday. Lows tonight will be warm, generally in
the upper 40s to low 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Deep layer SW flow will dominate Wednesday as the area remains
entirely warm sectored. Periods of rain showers are expected, some
of which may be locally moderate to heavy, especially as the
forcing maximizes ahead of the cold frontal passage Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Highs on Wednesday will be in the middle
50s to low 60s. Overall, around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is expected
for much of the area, with the highest amounts to the north and east.
One of the biggest impactful aspects of this system is the
potential for strong wind gusts. There will be two separate
opportunities to see advisory level winds in the area over the next
24 to 36 hours. The first is with the mixing down of any winds from
the LLJ ahead of the cold front during much of the day on Wednesday.
There will be a fairly strong inversion in place but with a LLJ
anywhere from 60-80kt near 925 mb, gusts near 40 kt will be
possible. However, it may be the case where the inversion is
strong enough and precipitation is weak enough to not mix down
much of this LLJ energy at all during the day on Wednesday.
Regardless, the potential for strong gusts exists, so a wind
advisory is in effect for the eastern portions of Long Island
and New London County in Southeastern Connecticut to see gusts
in excess of 45 mph in the southerly flow.
The second chance for advisory level wind gusts will be with and
immediately behind the cold frontal passage Wednesday evening and
into the overnight. Strong CAA will allow for a much deeper
mixed layer to bring down strong winds behind the cold front. This
will likely make the wind threat much more widespread than just the
eastern and coastal areas as previously described. As such, a wind
advisory for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and western
Southern Connecticut are in effect. Winds may gust upwards of 40-50
mph with the cold frontal passage and for several hours afterwards
into the overnight period, gradually diminishing in strength toward
daybreak Thursday.
The cold frontal passage will be strong and very noticeable as a
rapid drop in temperatures is expected Wednesday evening.
Temperatures in the middle 50s Wednesday afternoon are expected to
drop into the 30s over a period of 2-3 hours. This rapid drop in
temperatures will be accompanied by the previously described strong
wind gusts which will make feel apparent temperatures much colder.
Temperatures will continue to drop through Wednesday night such that
lows will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Apparent temperatures
will be in the teens.
Precipitation will likely come to an end rather quickly behind the
frontal passage, but flakes mixing in on the back end of the
precipitation can`t be entirely ruled out for much of the area,
though no accumulation is expected. There should be enough of a
period of gusty conditions with little to no precipitation such that
much of the ground should dry out before temperatures drop below
freezing. So the potential for a flash freeze situation appears
limited at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure builds in on Thursday with the flow aloft becoming
less cyclonic. However, still breezy with NW gusts as cold air
advection will still be ongoing. Highs only mostly 35-40, and the
wind will make it feel about 10 degrees colder.
The center of high pressure then shifts off the the Mid-Atlantic
coast late Thursday night with a return flow being established on
Friday. Warmer, with highs 45-50.
Friday night begins an extended period when there will be a chance
of rain. A wave of low pressure tries to develop to our south along
a trough. The wave potentially meanders somewhere in the vicinity
between the Mid-Atlantic coast and 40N/70W benchmark through the
middle of next week. Stuck closely to NBM PoPs (which are limited to
chance) from Friday night onward due to the uncertainty. Precip type
should be rain. The only exception would be a low chance that
freezing rain occurs over parts of the far NW fringe of the forecast
area if precip were to occur late Friday night/early Saturday
morning. Temperatures Saturday through Tuesday above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR to start. Winds N of a weak warm front draping the area were out
of the E less than 10 kt, and S of the front were SE-S mostly around
10 kt, except at KJFK/KISP where stronger S winds 15-20G25kt are
expected.
Rain moving in tonight should quickly lower conditions to MVFR and
then IFR/LIFR by late evening or overnight, with S flow 15-20G25kt
along the coast and 10-15G20kt inland. LLWS with low level S winds
up to 45-50 kt tonight into Wed AM looks confined to KJFK and points
east.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD possible this evening to timing of lower flight cat.
An isolated rumble of thunder possible from 00Z-03Z. Improvement to
MVFR possible after 16Z Wed.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday afternoon/evening: MVFR from the NYC metros north/west,
IFR to the east at the Long Island/CT terminals. S winds G35-40kt
along the coast (with LLWS) and 30-35 kt inland.
Late Wednesday night: Rain ending, with cond improving from
MVFR to VFR from west to east. Rain could briefly mix with snow
before ending. W winds G30-35kt.
Thursday: VFR. NW winds 20-25G30-35kt in the morning,
diminishing to 15-20G25kt late in the afternoon.
Thursday night: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt early.
Friday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt along the coast.
Saturday: Chance of rain. MVFR cond possible.
Sunday: Slight chance of rain. Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA conditions overtake all waters this evening with wind gusts
upwards of 25 kt. Winds continue to increase tonight over the ocean
with gale force gusts possible as early as 6Z so a Gale Warning is
now in effect for the ocean and Great South Bay tonight. Ocean
seas are also expected to quickly rise to well above 5 feet by
this evening and up to 10 to 12 feet by Wednesday morning.
Gale gusts likely on most waters except the NY Harbor Wednesday as
flow increases ahead of a cold front, with mainly 35 to 40 kt gusts
on the ocean waters, occasionally up to 45 kt. Seas reach 15 to 17
ft by Wednesday evening on the ocean. Gale warning then expands to
the NY Harbor Wednesday evening as gusts with the frontal passage
are expected to reach or exceed 35 kt.
Gale conditions continue through Thursday morning, then winds and
gusts diminish as cold air advection subsides and the pressure
gradient becomes weaker. SCA conds for Thursday afternoon and
evening, with sub-advisory conds for most of the waters by around
midnight. Seas on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet may linger above
5 ft through most of the night. High pressure will then be centered
well off to our SE on Friday. SW winds pick up during the day with
marginal SCA conds possible on the ocean. Sub-advisory conditions
otherwise anticipated through Saturday, then oceans seas build with
a swell Saturday night into Sunday as a wave of low pressure tries
to take shape off the Mid-Atlantic coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A period of rain showers is expected as a frontal system moves
through the region this evening through Wednesday night. Total
expected rainfall is generally between 0.75 and 1.5 inches.
Outside the potential for brief nuisance flooding of urban and
poor drainage locales, no other significant hydrologic impacts
are expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Wind Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
CTZ005>007-009>011.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
CTZ008-012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
NYZ067>070.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
NYZ079-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-340.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ331-332-335-340.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Wednesday for ANZ338.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ345-
350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW