000
FXUS61 KOKX 282357
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
657 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moves across the region this evening. High
pressure then gradually builds into the area through Thursday
night. High pressure moves offshore Friday as an inverted trough
moves along the east coast. The weak trough remains offshore
into early next week with unsettled weather possible. A cold
front approaches for midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Updated for timing of line of stronger showers, and embedded
thunderstorms, with the line moving into eastern Pennsylvania at
23Z.
Wind Advisory remains in effect through tonight. The only
change made to the wind headline was to push up the end time to
4 am as higher gusts will be coming to end shortly after
midnight.
A strong cold front was moving into eastern New York State and
eastern Pennsylvania early this evening. periods of rain and
showers continue early this evening well ahead of the front.
The actual cold front should begin entering the region between
6-8pm, cross the NYC metro and Hudson River Corridor 8p-10pm,
and pass through Long Island and southern Connecticut 10pm-12am.
Accompanying the front will be a line of convection with brief
downpours and isolated thunderstorms. Precip may linger briefly
behind the front, but the trend in the guidance is for
precipitation to shut off fairly quickly a few hours after the
frontal passage.
The line of showers accompanying the front could produce
strong, gusty winds. However, think the strongest winds will
occur immediately after the frontal passage/wind shift as mixing
will be maximized along with cold advection. Winds ahead of the
front remained below Advisory levels across eastern Long Island
and southeast CT. The low level inversion has prevented any of
the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface. Think this
will continue to be the case through the early evening until the
cold front moves through. Winds will then pick up this
evening/tonight should occur in the few hours after the frontal
passage and that is the highest chance of observing wind
advisory gusts to 45-50 mph. Winds within the mixed layer weaken
after midnight from west to east with peak gusts settling to
near 35-40 mph late tonight and then 30-35 mph towards day break
Sunday. This is the reason the Wind Advisory will now expire at
4 am and it is possible to be cancelled sooner, especially from
the city on NW.
The other story tonight will be the rapid temperature drop
behind the front. Temperatures immediately ahead of the front
will be in the 50s for much of the area. It is possible that the
initial turbulent mixing with the front will push temperatures
upward briefly with some place potentially in the low 60s away
from the coast. Temperatures will then fall quickly into the 40s
and then 30s a few hours later. If there is some lingering
precip, a few wet snow flakes are possible, but the weakening
lift and limited moisture likely keep this isolated.
Temperatures should continue to fall below freezing in the very
early morning hours.
There should be enough time for moisture on roads to dry up or
evaporate, especially with the strong winds tonight and dew points
falling into the teens overnight. Will have to monitor trends for
any patchy black ice, but for now the concern is limited due to
these reasons.
Wind chills will be in the teens by early Thursday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Large, negatively tilted upper trough will continue moving east
of the area with high pressure building to our south and west.
The NW flow behind the departing storm system to the NE and
building high is supportive of lake effect streamers moving
towards the interior in the morning. Several CAMs are signaling
this potential as well. Due to this signal, have added in
isolated flurries to the interior during the morning. The dry
low levels should prevent any accumulation. The weakening NW
flow and change in flow direction to the west should bring an
end to any flurries and also help diminish stratocu in the
afternoon.
Otherwise, a much colder day is in store for Thursday. Highs
will be close to 20 degrees colder compared to Wednesday with
readings in the 30s for most locations. The NYC metro/urban NE
NJ corridor could see around 40 degrees.
High pressure ridge axis builds over the area Thursday night.
Winds will weaken and become light overnight with mostly clear
skies. This will set up good radiational cooling conditions and
should allow temperatures to bottom out in the 20s for much of the
region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period will be mainly unsettled as an inverted
trough moves along the east coast Friday night and remains
offshore into the beginning of next week as an upper level Omega
blocking pattern sets up, and the area will be under a weak
upper ridge. Another shortwave moves toward the region from the
southwest midweek as a northern stream cold front approaches.
While much of the extended period will not be wet, there remains
a lot of timing and placement uncertainty, so have used the NBM
for probabilities for the long term period.
The other feature of the long term will be a warming trend
beginning Saturday and remaining into the start of next week.
Friday`s temperatures will be near normal, then Saturday into
Wednesday will be above normal, with temperatures 5 to around 10
degrees above normal Sunday through Wednesday. While no record
highs are expected there is a chance that a few high minimum
temperatures records will be set Sunday through Tuesday. Again
mainly used the NBM temperatures with a blend of the 75th
percentile.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong cold front will move through this evening. Conds out
ahead of the front have improved to VFR/MVFR. A brief drop to
IFR expected with fropa as an associated band of heavy showers
moves across.
LLWS will also continue ahead of fropa, with S-SW flow 45-55 kt
at FL020.
Expect W winds to gust up to 40 kt with cold fropa and for at
least a couple of hours following. Fropa timing has been
adjusted:
KSWF/KTEB/KEWR: 01Z-02Z.
KHPN/KLGA: 01Z-03Z.
KJFK/KBDR: 02Z-03Z.
KISP: 02Z-04Z.
KGON: 03Z-04Z.
NW winds should run from 15-20G30kt late tonight into Thu
afternoon, then diminish toward evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD possible mainly for flight cat/wind gusts with
cold fropa between 01Z-03Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt along the coast.
Saturday: MVFR cond possible with chance of rain.
Sunday: Mainly VFR with only slight chance of rain.
Monday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gale conditions will occur this evening into early Thursday on
the waters. SW winds will increase ahead of an approaching cold
front, which crosses the waters this evening. Winds ahead of
the front may approach gales at times, but more widespread gales
are likely once the cold front passes. The gales will persist
on the waters into early Thursday morning, before ending from
west to east by Thursday afternoon. It is possible the Gale
Warning will need to be cancelled sooner if winds on the waters
subside below gales sooner. Winds to SCA levels are then likely
Thursday afternoon. Ocean seas will remain high through tonight
into Thursday morning before beginning to subside Thursday
afternoon. While winds on the waters will be below SCA levels
Thursday evening, ocean seas may remain around 5 ft. The
elevated seas should subside by midnight with seas below 5 ft
into early Friday morning.
Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA levels across the
forecast waters Friday through Saturday morning. Then southeast
winds will be increasing Saturday afternoon ahead of approaching low
pressure to the south, with the winds becoming east Saturday night.
This will likely build ocean seas to SCA levels by late afternoon,
with seas building into Saturday night. Ocean seas likely remain
elevated into at least Monday night as an east flow persists with
high pressure offshore.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast this
evening with a cold frontal passage. Brief minor nuisance
flooding is possible, but no significant hydrologic impacts are
expected.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Friday into the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG/MW
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET