000
FXUS61 KOKX 291149
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
649 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough moves across today followed by high pressure
building in tonight into early Friday. High pressure then moves
offshore Friday into Friday night, eventually giving way to
approaching low pressure for the start of the upcoming weekend. A
weak low pressure trough will remain offshore from Sunday into
early next week, with unsettled weather possible. A cold front
will approach for midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast mainly on track this morning but dewpoints were a few
degrees lower than forecast. Lowered the forecast dewpoints
compared to the previous forecast for today.
Winds on a downward trend but still gusty through today. There
is still a rather steep pressure gradient between low pressure
in Eastern Canada and high pressure along the Appalachians.
Expecting the gusts to be more in the 30 to 35 mph range with
some potential 40 mph gusts especially late this morning into
early this afternoon.
A surface trough moves across with aloft positive vorticity
advection moving in along the backside of a mid level trough.
This will present cyclonic flow aloft and keep an abundance of
clouds during the day. While the boundary layer will be mainly
dry, a few snow showers will be possible from the lift of the
trough.
A few CAMs are indicating this shower potential with the NSSL
WRF being the most expansive of coverage. Due to limited
moisture and the FV3 and NAM Nest being mostly dry, POPs are
just slight chance. The precipitation may end up just being some
isolated to widely scattered snow flurries for a few locations.
It will be a colder than normal day. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the mid 30s to lower 40s for most locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging aloft with high pressure at the surface building in
tonight into early Friday. The surface high pressure area will
then shift offshore Friday into Friday evening. Low pressure
then approaches late Friday night and into the first half of the
upcoming weekend.
Clouds will be minimal as more negative vorticity advection in
the mid levels presents more subsidence. Winds will diminish
tonight with a weakening pressure gradient as high pressure
builds in. Clear sky conditions and decreasing winds will make
for relatively more optimal radiational cooling conditions,
conveying a vast range for lows as a result, mid teens to near
30.
For Friday, more of a SW flow develops as high pressure moves
offshore. This will moderate the airmass and allow for warm air
advection. Highs forecast will be warmer than the previous day.
Clouds increase Friday night ahead of the next low pressure
area. Eventually precipitation comes back into the forecast late
Friday night. Boundary layer will be cold enough across the
interior for a wintry mix of mainly rain and snow but with
warming temperatures as southerly flow continues, this wintry
precipitation will be brief. Little to no snow accumulation
expected.
The precipitation becomes plain rain for the entire area
Saturday as low pressure gets closer to the area but its center
remains well south and west of the local region. The rain will
be a steady overrunning stratiform type. Onshore flow
continues, with slightly warmer temperatures Saturday and then
not much fall of temperatures Saturday night as rain lingers
into Saturday night and onshore flow continues initially.
However, the flow becomes more northerly late Saturday night
with rain trending less.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period will be mainly unsettled as an inverted trough
remains offshore Sunday into the beginning of next week as an upper
level Omega blocking pattern sets up, and the area will be under a
weak upper ridge. Another shortwave moves toward the region from the
southwest midweek as a northern stream cold front approaches. While
much of the extended period will not be wet, there remains a lot of
timing and placement uncertainty, so have used the NBM for
probabilities for the long term period.
The other feature of the long term will be a warming trend
continuing Sunday into Wednesday, with temperatures 5 to around 10
degrees above normal. While no record highs are expected there is a
chance that a few high minimum temperatures records will be set
Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure builds to the SW. A brief snow shower or
flurry is possible, mainly for KSWF, KBDR, and KGON. If the snow
showers are heavy enough, they could briefly bring down
visibilities to MVFR, but confidence is not high on exactly
where they will occur, so did not include in TAFs.
WNW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt through daytime. Isolated
gusts of 30-35 kt possible, especially early this morning. Winds
will diminish tonight and shift toward the SW late in the TAF
period. Isolated gusts over 20 kt possible a couple of hours
after sunset.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD not expected attm.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt along the coast.
Saturday: MVFR cond possible with chance of rain.
Sunday: Mainly VFR with only slight chance of rain.
Monday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gales remain on all forecast waters into this morning and into
early this afternoon. For some waters, the gales may diminish
before the start of this afternoon. Otherwise, expect mainly SCA
level winds this afternoon and into this evening. For eastern
waters and ocean, SCA winds linger into late tonight with other
waters falling below SCA wind criteria. Mainly below SCA winds
expected thereafter for all waters going through first half of
this weekend. Ocean and LI Sound seas mainly in SCA range today,
with ocean seas SCA range tonight and perhaps the eastern LI
Sound. Seas below SCA for all waters Friday through Saturday.
Ocean seas back to SCA levels for Saturday night.
Ocean seas likely remain elevated into at least Sunday night with a
persistent northeasterly fetch. Waves are forecast to fall below 5
ft on the ocean by Monday afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into the middle of
next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP