000
FXUS61 KOKX 011459
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes offshore today. A developing coastal low
will approach from the south tonight into Saturday, and then
remain nearby on Sunday. Low pressure moves offshore Sunday
night into Monday. Weak high pressure early next week gives way
to low pressure that will approach and remain nearby along a
stalled frontal boundary for much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes to the forecast with just a few minor
adjustments to reflect current observations.
The center of high pressure shifts offshore today as a trough
or weak area of low pressure to the southwest approaches. This
will mean a dry and mostly sunny day today. Light winds this
morning will become southerly at 10 to 15 mph by the afternoon.
Weak warm advection noted in the thermal profiles today with
veering winds, which means warmer temperatures as compared to
Thursday. Expect highs to range from the lower 40s across Long
Island and southern Connecticut where the onshore southerly
component to the winds will mean cooler conditions as compared
to the middle 40s that are expected north and west of New York
City today.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid and high clouds work in and lower from southwest to
northeast this evening and night in the warm advection ahead of
a southern branch low working up the eastern seaboard. Expect
precipitation to work in late, in the pre-dawn hours.
Temperatures are marginal, but there could be some pockets of
freezing rain inland, mainly across northern and western
portions of Orange County in the Lower Hudson Valley. This looks
to be brief with the self limiting nature (latent heat release
of ice warming the surrounding environment) and additional warm
advection expected, little or no ice accretion is forecast at
this time. Will have to monitor for the potential of a Special
Weather Statement for this area. By early Saturday morning,
plain rain is expected everywhere. Lows will range from the
lower 30s well inland, to 35 to 40 along the coast.
The weak low will trek toward the forecast area Saturday and
then move over or in the vicinity by Saturday night as the upper
level shortwave associated with it weakens. By Sunday, it lifts
northeast of the area. This will bring a prolong period of
light rain from early Saturday morning through Sunday morning,
with the potential for a return to dry conditions by Sunday
afternoon and night. 850 hPa temperatures range from 1 to 4 C on
Saturday and rise to 4 to 10 C on Sunday, indicating warming
temperatures through the period. Highs on Saturday will be in
the middle 40s to around 50, and upper 40s (eastern coastal
areas) to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Region embedded within a split flow jet pattern looking at large
scale aloft. The region in mid to upper levels stays on NW side of a
gradual weakening ridge for early into middle of next week. Towards
late next week, the flow becomes more SW with more shortwave trough
activity as well as the approach of an upper level jet streak.
At the surface, low pressure moves offshore Sunday night into
Monday. Weak high pressure briefly builds but will breakdown with
weak embedded shortwaves moving NE in the mid levels along with
surface weak low pressure going into Tuesday. These features
will be mainly offshore but will be close enough to keep a
slight chance of rain in the forecast Sunday night, Monday
night, and Tuesday. Otherwise, weather will be mainly dry with
mostly cloudy conditions.
Rain becomes more likely Wednesday into Thursday with more dynamic
forcing mentioned in the 1st paragraph of the long term. This will
be in combination with surface features of a stalled front offshore
and approaching low pressure from the south and west for the same
timeframe. This rain looks to be more widespread and more steady.
The airmass will be a cool maritime type during much of the long
term. This will keep less of a diurnal temperature range. Highs
averaging mostly in the 50s and lows averaging mostly in the
40s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure near the region will slowly move offshore today into
tonight. Low pressure approaches on Saturday.
VFR conditions expected with mainly clear sky conditions through
this afternoon. VFR continues tonight but clouds will increase and
become more expansive. Chance of rain develops late tonight with a
slight chance of freezing rain at KSWF.
Light and variable winds become more southerly today and more
southeasterly tonight.
Wind speeds near 5 to 10 kt through much of the TAF period.
Occasional gusts 15 to 20 kt are possible this afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible if gusts become more probable.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Rain further develops and becomes steady. MVFR expected in
the morning, IFR developing in the afternoon and at night.
Sunday: Slight chance of rain with MVFR possible at KGON, mainly at
night. Mainly VFR elsewhere.
Monday: Mainly VFR.
Tuesday: Slight chance of rain. MVFR possible. Otherwise, VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria today and tonight due
to light winds in association with high pressure over the area
pushing east of the coastal waters.
SE winds will increase Saturday afternoon ahead of approaching
low pressure to the south, with the winds becoming E-NE Saturday
night. This will likely build ocean seas to SCA levels Saturday
night, with seas continuing to build into Sunday.
From Sunday night onward, ocean waters stay within SCA range
for seas much of the time. Non-ocean stays below SCA. Winds are
below SCA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Anywhere from 0.25-0.75" of liquid equivalent is expected from
late tonight through Sunday morning. This should not cause any
hydrologic problems through then.
No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week. Too much
uncertainty thereafter to see if there will be any specific
hydrologic impacts with rain mid to late week at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP