000
FXUS61 KOKX 021224
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
724 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A developing low pressure system will approach from the south
today. This low will pass just south of the area tonight.
Weakening low pressure slowly exits to the northeast on Sunday,
followed by weak high pressure building in. High pressure will
remain in control through at least Monday. A coastal low could
then potentially approach from the south on Monday night.
Multiple areas of low pressure along a frontal boundary move
near the region mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Minor update to current weather conditions to better reflect
latest obs. Otherwise forecast remains on track.
Rain will overspread the area from southwest to northeast today
as a surface low develops near the southeast coast and lifts
north towards the region today. Temperatures will remain around
freezing across portions of Orange county where there could be
some pockets of freezing rain early this morning. Any freezing
rain looks to be brief and the warm air is expected to continue
to move into the region. Highs today will be in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The low is forecast to pass just south of long Island tonight
with the rain starting to taper off from west to east late tonight.
Rainfall amounts will generally range from a third to around an
inch, with the highest amounts further east.
Lows tonight will fall into the 40s.
Dry conditions are likely on Sunday, with an upper level shortwave
trough axis east of the area along with associated weak surface low.
The low will continue to slowly pull away as heights rise aloft and
weak surface high pressure noses in from the north. High pressure
looks to remain in control through at least Monday. A coastal low
is forecast to approach from the south Monday night bringing another
round of rain to the area.
Temperatures in the 50s are expected Sunday and Monday, with lows in
the mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level jet is displaced well north of the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Upper level jet streak develops farther south near
the region Wednesday into Thursday with a subtropical jet moving
north towards the area late in the week.
In the mid levels, local area is on the western side of ridge with
two shortwaves passing by. These are accompanied by surface lows
traversing near the area as well. Timeframe for the shortwaves
and lows, Tuesday into Tuesday night and then Wednesday night
through early Friday. The stronger low and shortwave with more
dynamic forcing appear to be with the second one within the
Wednesday night through early Friday timeframe.
Gusty easterly winds and rainfall forecast through much of the
period will make for a maritime airmass to develop across the
region. Temperatures overall are forecast to be above normal with
less diurnal differences.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure approaches today and moves southeast of Long Island
tonight.
Rain will be more periodic and intermittent this morning before
becoming more steady going into this afternoon and this evening.
Rain tapers off late tonight from west to east.
MVFR to IFR in rain today will gradually improve west to east
late tonight into early Sunday to mainly MVFR. There will likely
be some localized LIFR conditions from time to time this
afternoon and tonight.
SE to E winds near 10 kt today will eventually become more
northerly tonight into early Sunday without much change in wind
speed.
There is potential for some low level wind shear going into
early this evening with SE winds near 40-50 kt at 2kft.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR and IFR timing could be a few hours off from TAF. There
could be some fluctuation between categories.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Gradual improvement to VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower at
night, especially outside the NYC terminals.
Monday: Slight chance of rain east of NYC terminals afternoon into
early evening. Increasing chances of rain across entire area at
night. MVFR to IFR possible.
Tuesday: Chance of rain. MVFR to IFR possible.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower at times in rain. E-NE winds G15-
20kt developing at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria tonight with high
pressure east of the local waters.
SE winds will increase Saturday afternoon ahead of approaching
low pressure to the south, with the winds becoming E-NE Saturday
night. This will allow ocean seas to build to SCA levels
Saturday night and continue into Sunday. Wave heights will slowly
lower, falling below 5 ft sometime late Monday through Monday night.
Long term marine forecast covering Tuesday through Wednesday night,
regarding the winds, they are forecast to be mostly below SCA until
Wednesday night. That is when much of the ocean is forecast to have
SCA level wind gusts. Concerning the seas, non-ocean waters are
forecast to be below SCA thresholds but ocean waters are forecast to
be in SCA range much of the time. Wavewatch indicates some
contribution potentially from long period easterly swell.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Anywhere from 0.30-1.00" of liquid equivalent is expected from this
morning through tonight. No hydrologic impacts are expected today
through Monday night.
Widespread rainfall forecast mid to late week. Heavy rain potential
with potentially above climo precipitable waters moving in with each
low. Still lots of uncertainty depending on track and timing of low
to determine any specific impacts at this time beyond that of minor
flooding in the poor drainage and low lying areas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM