discussion on 2024-03-02

000
FXUS61 KOKX 021733
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1233 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure approaches from the south through this
evening. The low then slowly moves east of the area through
early Sunday morning followed by weak high pressure building
in. High pressure will remain in control through at least
Monday. A coastal low could then potentially approach from the
south on Monday night. Multiple areas of low pressure along a
frontal boundary move near the region mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mainly light rain continues to overspread the area from the
southwest. More organized thermal forcing arrives this
afternoon and will set up a localized area of frontogenesis.
This will allow for some of the rain to become moderate to
locally heavy at times.

Have bumped up total rainfall amounts to around a half inch
northern interior to around 1 to 1.25 inches closer to the NYC
metro and Long Island. While there may be periods of moderate to
locally heavy rain this afternoon and early evening, only minor
nuisance flooding is possible.

The low may lift across southern portions of the area this
evening before departing towards Cape Cod overnight. The rain
should taper off from west to east the first half of tonight.
The flow behind the low is weak and there could be some patchy
fog in spots overnight.

Temperatures today will rise into the 40s for most spots and
could touch low 50s this evening immediately ahead of the low.
Temperatures tonight will be mild and above normal, generally in
the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions are likely on Sunday, with an upper level
shortwave trough axis east of the area. The surface low will
also continue moving away from the New England coast. Heights
rise aloft and weak surface high pressure noses in from the
north. High pressure looks to remain in control through at least
Monday. Another weak low is forecast to approach from the south
Monday night, which may bring another round of rain to the
area.

Temperatures in the 50s are expected Sunday and Monday, with lows
in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level jet is displaced well north of the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Upper level jet streak develops farther south near
the region Wednesday into Thursday with a subtropical jet moving
north towards the area late in the week.

In the mid levels, local area is on the western side of ridge with
two shortwaves passing by. These are accompanied by surface lows
traversing near the area as well. Timeframe for the shortwaves
and lows, Tuesday into Tuesday night and then Wednesday night
through early Friday. The stronger low and shortwave with more
dynamic forcing appear to be with the second one within the
Wednesday night through early Friday timeframe.

Gusty easterly winds and rainfall forecast through much of the
period will make for a maritime airmass to develop across the
region. Temperatures overall are forecast to be above normal with
less diurnal differences.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure approaches today and moves southeast or over Long
Island tonight.

Rain is becoming more steady as we go into the afternoon and
will continue this evening. Rain tapers off late tonight from
west to east.

Currently seeing IFR to LIFR ceilings with the rain and may see
visbys drop to 1SM over the next several hours. VLIFR
conditions are possible, at times tonight with low ceilings
and/or fog.

SE to E winds near 10 kt today will eventually become more
northerly tonight into early Sunday remaining below 10
kts.

Low level wind shear of 40-50s kts is possible this afternoon
and evening with SE winds at 2kft.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

FLight categories could fluctuate between IFR and LIFR from
changing rain rates this afternoon/evening, ceiling heights this
afternoon/evening into tonight and in fog tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: Gradual improvement from IFR to MVFR. Chance of MVFR or
lower at night, especially outside the NYC terminals.

Monday: Slight chance of rain east of NYC terminals afternoon into
early evening. Increasing chances of rain across entire area at
night. MVFR to IFR possible.

Tuesday: Chance of rain. MVFR to IFR possible.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower at times in rain. E-NE winds G15-
20kt developing at night.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower at times in rain. N-NE winds
G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Have pushed up the start time of the SCA on the ocean to 4 pm as
winds will be increasing to near SCA levels in stronger S flow.

A weak low pressure approaches this afternoon and moves over
the waters this evening. The low passes east of the area
overnight into Sunday morning. Winds will reach marginal SCA
levels this afternoon on the ocean as S flow increases, This
will continue for the first half of tonight. Ocean seas will
build through this evening, mainly due to a longer period SE
swell. These long period swells are likely to persist into
Sunday. Winds on the waters will remain below SCA levels late
tonight through Sunday night. Ocean seas will slowly subside,
falling below 5 ft sometime late Monday through Monday night.

Winds are forecast to be mostly below SCA Tuesday until
Wednesday night. That is when much of the ocean is forecast to
have SCA level wind gusts. Concerning the seas, non-ocean waters
are forecast to be below SCA thresholds but ocean waters are
forecast to be in SCA range much of the time. Wavewatch
indicates some contribution potentially from long period
easterly swell.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Anywhere from 0.50-1.25" of rain, highest across NY metro to
Long Island and southeast CT, is expected through the first
half of tonight. Only minor nuisance flooding is possible with
this rainfall. Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are expected
through Monday Night.

Widespread rainfall forecast mid to late week. Heavy rain potential
with potentially above climo precipitable waters moving in with each
low. Still lots of uncertainty depending on track and timing of low
to determine any specific impacts at this time beyond that of minor
flooding in the poor drainage and low lying areas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...20/DS
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...20/JM
HYDROLOGY...20/JM