000
FXUS61 KOKX 022035
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure moves across the area this evening and then slowly
east through Sunday morning. Weak high pressure then returns
Sunday afternoon through Monday. A couple of low pressure
systems then impact the weather Monday night through Thursday.
High pressure returns briefly for Friday ahead of a storm system
next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Widespread rain will continue into this evening as low pressure
near southern NJ will move northward towards the region.
Thermal forcing in the form of frontogenesis supports a period
of moderate to locally heavy rainfall with rates around one
quarter to one third of an inch per hour. As the low lifts north
towards the NYC metro this evening, the axis of deep moisture
and rain shifts over Long Island and southeast Connecticut. The
low looks to become elongated overnight, but should gradually
shift towards the SE New England coast by day break Sunday.
The rain will quickly taper off from west to east this evening
through around midnight, taking longest out east. Total
rainfall amounts will range from around a half inch across the
interior to 1 to 1.25 inches closer to the NYC metro and Long
Island. Only minor nuisance flooding is possible.
The low level flow becomes weak as the low passes tonight. While
there may be a light W or NW flow behind the low, there is not much
dry advection behind the system. Will continue to mention
patchy fog, but there is a chance that it becomes more
widespread with the lingering low level moisture and mild
temperatures. Lows tonight will only be in the lower to middle
40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The shortwave associated with the low moves east of the area
Sunday morning. Ridging will then follow in the afternoon and
evening allowing for high pressure to return. The low level flow
remains weak, but should largely become WNW-NW through the day.
Model soundings indicate a subsidence inversion around 4-5 kft.
There will likely be enough moisture trapped beneath the
inversion to support scattered to broken stratocu clouds. The
more likely locations for mostly cloudy conditions in the
afternoon will be across Long Island and southern Connecticut.
Despite the potential clouds, highs will be well above normal
for this time of year. Bumped up highs from the previous
forecast with NE NJ and NYC metro in the lower 60s. Most other
locations should reach the upper 50s. If cloud cover ends up
being less than anticipated, highs could be a few degrees higher
even along the coast given the WNW-NW flow. Several high res
models hint at the potential of a late day sea breeze
development near the coast, but this may not have much impact on
high temperatures if it were to occur late in the afternoon.
The ridge axis will largely remain over the area Sunday night.
The aforementioned subsidence inversion persists yielding mostly
cloudy conditions. Will continue to keep fog out of the forecast
for now given the expectation of a stratocu deck through the
night. Lows will be mild and only in the 40s for most spots, but
may be near 50 in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Looks like an active pattern for the long term period. 500mb
longwave ridge axis progged just off to our east on Monday
slowly shifts east farther out to sea through Thursday.
Meanwhile, shortwaves generate a couple of surface lows that
impact the forecast area. The first brings likelihood of rain
primarily late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. The
second low has potential to be stronger with shortwave phasing,
and brings the likelihood of rain mainly from Wednesday
afternoon/evening through Thursday afternoon. This timing may
shift with subsequent forecasts, but it appears that models are
beginning to converge on the placement and timing of both
surface systems.
High pressure briefly returns for Friday. Right now it looks
as if it will be dry, however with NBM still showing chance
PoPs, have kept in at least "hidden" slight chc PoPs in the
forecast. The high retreats to NE on Saturday, giving way to
another low pressure system. POPs capped at chance for now since
this is at the end of the long term forecast period. Given that
the high pressure center to our north is exiting NE and not
trying to build in, it looks like this would primarily be a rain
event although cannot rule out a wintry mix across northern
zones.
High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be above normal.
Same for Thursday through Saturday, but probably closer to normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure passes nearby this evening and exits northeast
tonight.
Steady rain will taper off tonight from west to east.
Currently seeing IFR to LIFR ceilings with occasional lower
visibilities in heavier rain. Fog may develop as the low exits
tonight with low cloud ceilings.
SE to E winds near 10-15 kt this evening will eventually become
more northerly tonight into early Sunday remaining below 10
kts.
Low level wind shear of 40-50s kts will remain a possibility in this
evening with SE winds at 2kft. It should clear tonight as the low
exits.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Flight categories could fluctuate between IFR and LIFR from
changing rain rates this evening, ceiling heights this
evening into tonight and in fog tonight.
Gusts may be occasional this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday: Gradual improvement from IFR to MVFR. Chance of MVFR or
lower at night, especially outside the NYC terminals.
Monday: Slight chance of rain east of NYC terminals afternoon into
early evening. Increasing chances of rain across entire area at
night. MVFR to IFR possible.
Tuesday: Chance of rain. MVFR to IFR possible.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower at times in rain. E-NE winds G15-
20kt developing at night.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower at times in rain. N-NE winds
G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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The SCA has been extended through Sunday night on the
ocean.
S flow continues to increase into this evening as low pressure
moves N towards the waters. Marginal SCA gusts are likely on the
ocean this evening before winds begin to weaken overnight.
Otherwise, ocean seas will continue building this evening and
then will remain elevated through at least Sunday night. The
elevated seas will mainly be due to lingering long period SE
swells, especially after tonight. Winds after this evening will
remain below SCA levels on the waters through Sunday night.
Winds will continue to remain below SCA levels Monday through
Wednesday afternoon. Seas on the ocean will however fluctuate
around advisory thresholds primarily due to swell. Winds then
increase Wednesday night into Thursday as coastal low pressure
approaches and passes to the SE. SCA conds are anticipated for
all waters during this period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Rain will continue through this evening, The rain may be
moderate to locally heavy at times. Total rainfall amounts will
range from around one half across the interior to around 1-1.25
inches near the coast. Other than some minor nuisance flooding
this evening, no hydrologic impacts are expected through Sunday
night.
Rainfall Monday night through Tuesday night is expected to be in the
range of a half inch to an inch. Probably no hydrologic impacts with
this system. There is then the potential for 1-1.5 inches of rain
with the following system Wednesday night through Thursday. Better
chances of at least minor flooding in poor drainage and low lying
areas given the combination of the two rain events.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS