000
FXUS61 KOKX 031426
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
926 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build across the region this afternoon
through Monday. The next low pressure system is expected Monday
night into Tuesday night.
A wave of low pressure develops and approaches the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night. The low center passes to the south and east
of Long Island Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure then
builds in Friday into Saturday, followed by another low pressure
wave approaching for next Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor update to temperatures and dewpoints to better reflect
current conditions. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.
Fog is no longer being observed with clouds clearing out.High
pressure then builds into the region today, along with upper
level ridging helping clear out cloud cover for the rest of the
morning and early afternoon as drier air advects across the
area. Temperatures today will be in the 60s which is well above
normal.
Dry weather continues tonight, along with partly cloudy skies as
high pressure remains in control. Lows will be mild and only in the
40s for most spots, but may be near 50 in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday is expected to start out quiet with temperatures mostly in
the 50s. Moisture will then increase ahead of an area of low
pressure lifting north from the Carolina coast, bringing an increase
of rain to the area late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. This
low will lift northward into the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday moving
toward New England by Tuesday night.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s with
nighttime lows in the mid to upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
From analysis of large scale numerical weather prediction models,
some of the significant features are noted below.
Jet streak SW to NE north of the area, right rear quad will be
closer to region for Wednesday into Thursday. Surface wave of low
pressure from the southeast US moves in. Model indication of close
to 1.3 inches of precipitable water with the low.
High pressure then briefly moves across Friday into Saturday. Over
the local region this high pressure will be weak with the center of
the high displaced well north of the region. The low pressure area
that passed through the region is forecast to deepen but at varying
positions depending on which large scale numerical weather
prediction model is chosen. The outer extent of the precipitation
associated with the low will not be too far away from the local
region. Therefore, rain still a possibility but the chances for it
will be low.
Another low pressure wave approaches for next weekend along with a
SW to NE jet streak aloft that be moving north into the area. The
probabilities for rain will increase and with a colder boundary
layer, some snow could mix in for some locations.
Some uncertainty on ending of one low pressure wave`s precipitation
and start of next low pressure wave`s precipitation. Precipitation
type will be plain rain for much of the event timeframe for both low
pressure events.
Gusty easterly flow will make for less of a diurnal temperature
range. Forecast high temperature exhibit a cooling trend Wednesday
into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure continues moving away from the region today as high
pressure returns through Monday.
Conditions are expected to continue improving to VFR into the
afternoon. NYC terminals have already gone VFR and this should
continue through the evening. Elsewhere, MVFR should become VFR
by early afternoon with the exception of GON where MVFR may
linger several hours longer. VFR prevails this evening before
MVFR redevelops overnight.
Winds will be NW-WNW near 10 kt today. Wind direction could
become more variable as winds decrease late this afternoon into
the evening. Light and variable winds tonight become E-NE on
Monday under 10 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief MVFR possible through 17z.
Lower confidence wind direction at KJFK late this afternoon as
winds could stay NW into the evening.
Timing of MVFR tonight may be off by 1-3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: MVFR likely in the morning, possibly VFR in the
afternoon. Chance of rain across entire area at night with MVFR
to IFR possible.
Tuesday: Rain likely. MVFR to IFR possible.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower at times in rain. Rain chances increase
during day, becomes likely at night. E-NE winds G15-20kt developing
at night.
Thursday: MVFR or lower at times in rain, most likely east of NYC
terminals in the morning. NE-N winds G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions across the ocean waters in effect through late
Monday morning due to long period SE swells. Seas should
diminish shortly after that to below SCA levels, except for the
eastern ocean waters where SCA conditions may linger through
the afternoon but confidence is low at this time.
Wind gust forecast increases to SCA levels for ocean Wednesday
night. All waters have potential for SCA level wind gusts Thursday
into Thursday night. SCA level wind gusts forecast to linger mainly
on the ocean on Friday with otherwise below SCA wind gusts. Seas on
the ocean stay within SCA levels during much of the long term and
for Thursday into Thursday night, parts of the Eastern LI Sound is
forecast to reach SCA levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Monday.
Rainfall Monday night through Tuesday night is expected to be in the
range of a half inch to an inch. No hydrologic impacts is expected
at this time.
Heavy rain possible with a low pressure system Wednesday
through Thursday. Minor flooding possible in low lying and poor
drainage areas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20/JM
NEAR TERM...20/BR
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM/DS/MW
MARINE...20/JM
HYDROLOGY...20/JM