000
FXUS61 KOKX 031735
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1235 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build across the region this afternoon
through Monday. The next low pressure system is expected Monday
night into Tuesday night.
A wave of low pressure develops and approaches the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night. The low center passes to the south and east
of Long Island Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure then
builds in Friday into Saturday, followed by another low pressure
wave approaching for next Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Temperatures have tied the high record of 65 degrees set in
1991 at Central Park as of 1230PM. The record high has also been
broken at Bridgeport and tied at JFK as of the time of this
1230PM update. Temperatures have been running warmer than
guidance area-wide and have adjusted high temperatures up by
several degrees as a result. Cloud cover was also over-forecast
by guidance. Drier air with northwest to westerly flow has lead
to nearly sunny skies for most, so the cloud cover forecast has
also been adjusted.
High pressure will continue to build into the region today,
along with upper level ridging. Temperatures are expected to be
well-above average with multiple records broken at our climate
sites.
Dry weather continues tonight, along with partly cloudy skies as
high pressure remains in control. Lows will be mild and only in the
40s for most spots, but may be near 50 in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday is expected to start out quiet with temperatures mostly in
the 50s. Moisture will then increase ahead of an area of low
pressure lifting north from the Carolina coast, bringing an increase
of rain to the area late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. This
low will lift northward into the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday moving
toward New England by Tuesday night.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s with
nighttime lows in the mid to upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
From analysis of large scale numerical weather prediction models,
some of the significant features are noted below.
Jet streak SW to NE north of the area, right rear quad will be
closer to region for Wednesday into Thursday. Surface wave of low
pressure from the southeast US moves in. Model indication of close
to 1.3 inches of precipitable water with the low.
High pressure then briefly moves across Friday into Saturday. Over
the local region this high pressure will be weak with the center of
the high displaced well north of the region. The low pressure area
that passed through the region is forecast to deepen but at varying
positions depending on which large scale numerical weather
prediction model is chosen. The outer extent of the precipitation
associated with the low will not be too far away from the local
region. Therefore, rain still a possibility but the chances for it
will be low.
Another low pressure wave approaches for next weekend along with a
SW to NE jet streak aloft that be moving north into the area. The
probabilities for rain will increase and with a colder boundary
layer, some snow could mix in for some locations.
Some uncertainty on ending of one low pressure wave`s precipitation
and start of next low pressure wave`s precipitation. Precipitation
type will be plain rain for much of the event timeframe for both low
pressure events.
Gusty easterly flow will make for less of a diurnal temperature
range. Forecast high temperature exhibit a cooling trend Wednesday
into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure continues moving away from the New England coast
this afternoon as high pressure builds in through Monday.
VFR expected through this evening. MVFR conditions, mainly in
ceilings, should return late tonight into early Monday morning.
MVFR likely persists through the morning with potential of VFR
returning in the afternoon. Visibilities and ceilings could
lower to IFR at KSWF tonight.
NW-WNW winds 10-13 kt early this afternoon should begin
weakening towards evening. Occasional gusts 15-20 kt are
possible. Winds will become light and variable tonight before
becoming NE Monday morning and then E Monday afternoon under 10
kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds at KJFK may stay more WNW-NW than forecast 22-01z.
Occasional gusts 15-20 kt possible through 21z.
Timing of MVFR ceilings tonight may be off by 1-3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Afternoon: MVFR ceilings with VFR possible.
Monday Night-Tuesday: Chance of rain Monday night with rain
likely on Tuesday. MVFR Monday night may become IFR on Tuesday.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of rain during day,
becoming likely at night. E winds G15-20kt at night.
Thursday: MVFR or lower in possible rain, most likely east of
NYC terminals in the morning. NE-N winds G20-25kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR. N wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions across the ocean waters in effect through late
Monday morning due to long period SE swells. Seas should
diminish shortly after that to below SCA levels, except for the
eastern ocean waters where SCA conditions may linger through
the afternoon but confidence is low at this time.
Wind gust forecast increases to SCA levels for ocean Wednesday
night. All waters have potential for SCA level wind gusts Thursday
into Thursday night. SCA level wind gusts forecast to linger mainly
on the ocean on Friday with otherwise below SCA wind gusts. Seas on
the ocean stay within SCA levels during much of the long term and
for Thursday into Thursday night, parts of the Eastern LI Sound is
forecast to reach SCA levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Monday.
Rainfall Monday night through Tuesday night is expected to be in the
range of a half inch to an inch. No hydrologic impacts is expected
at this time.
Heavy rain possible with a low pressure system Wednesday
through Thursday. Minor flooding possible in low lying and poor
drainage areas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20/JM
NEAR TERM...20/BR
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS/MW
MARINE...20/JM
HYDROLOGY...20/JM