discussion on 2024-03-03

000
FXUS61 KOKX 032249
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
549 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains in control tonight through Monday before
weakening on Tuesday. Low pressure approaches from the south
Tuesday morning exiting northeast Tuesday night. A second low
pressure system approaches on Wednesday and passes to our
southeast on Thursday. High pressure then briefly builds in
during Friday ahead of another storm system next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The forecast is mainly on track with minor adjustments made to
some of the hourly forecast elements with this update.

Numerous record high temperatures have been tied or broken
today in response to dry northerly and westerly flow with sunny
skies. This is thanks to surface high pressure building in from
the north under a strong anomalous mid-level ridge.

This ridge is will continue to grow in strength tonight into Monday.
Surface high pressure will be situated far enough north that light,
variable winds are expected tonight into early Monday. Partly cloudy
skies are expected to develop overnight with lows in the 40s.

Highs will be much cooler on Monday compared to today in the low/mid-
50s. This is due in part to weakening subsidence and increasing
northerly and northeasterly flow with increasing cloud cover. Dry
weather will remain on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The anomalous ridge of high pressure will push east Monday night
into Tuesday as a low develops over the Carolina Coast and treks
northward towards us. Moisture ahead of the system will lead to
overcast conditions and rain overspreading across the area Tuesday
morning from south to north. Late Tuesday morning into early
afternoon more forcing from positive vorticity advection from the
approaching low and shortwave will lead to more persistent rainfall
across the area before it tapers off into the evening and early
night as the system exits. Rain is expected to be scattered during
this latter timeframe.

Overall, QPF amounts look to be around 0.5-0.75". PWATs are expected
to be near the max-moving average for this time of year at 1.20",
but the period of the maximum PWATs will be short-lived, so not much
hydrologic concerns with this system. Other than some positive
vorticity advection with the passing low and general cyclonic flow
with weak warm air advection ahead of the system at 850mb, there
will not be much forcing associated with the system to produce
concerns for heavy rainfall.

The low will quickly exit to the northeast Tuesday night with any
lingering rain clearing west to east.

Temperatures will be above seasonable values during the short term
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500mb shortwave shifts through the TN Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Associated surface low tracks
through the Southeastern US during this time and emerges off the Mid-
Atlantic coast early Thursday morning, passing to our southeast
later in the day. A chance of rain Wednesday morning, before
becoming likely for most areas in the afternoon. Rain expected
Wednesday night and still likely for much of the day in most spots
on Thursday. Anomalously high PWATS on the order of 3-4 standard
deviations along with strong lift at times may lead to periods where
the rain could be heavy at times. Temperatures through the period
above normal.

Lingering precip chances possible Thursday evening, otherwise drying
out as high pressure begins to nose down from the north. This area
of high pressure will keep us dry Friday and Friday night, then it
retreats to the NE this weekend. A complex low pressure system will
be pushing in from the south and west this weekend with rain chances
on Saturday, but rain overall more likely Saturday night and Sunday.
Still a chance that thermal profiles would be cold enough well
inland for a shot at a wintry mix at times, but with only marginally
cold air to begin with and high pressure retreating instead of
trying to build in, this looks to be mostly rain even for these
areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure continues moving away from the New England coast this
afternoon as high pressure builds in through Monday.

VFR expected through this evening. MVFR conditions, mainly in
ceilings, should return late tonight into early Monday morning.
MVFR likely persists through the morning with potential of VFR
returning in the afternoon. Visibilities and ceilings could lower to
IFR at KSWF tonight.

NW-N winds around 10 kt to start should begin to weaken through
sunset. A few gusts 15-18 kt remain possible across Long Island and
southern CT through 22z. Winds will become light and variable
tonight before becoming NE Monday morning and then E Monday
afternoon under 10 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Variability in wind direction is expected this evening with LGA
potentially staying N-NE. EWR and JFK may become WNW or W before
winds become light after sunset.

Timing of MVFR ceilings tonight may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: MVFR ceilings with VFR possible.

Monday Night-Tuesday: Chance of rain Monday night with rain likely
on Tuesday. MVFR Monday night may become IFR on Tuesday.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of rain in the morning,
becoming likely in the afternoon into the night. E winds G15-20kt at
night.

Thursday: MVFR or lower in possible rain. NE-N winds G20-25kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. N wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions across the ocean waters in effect through late Monday
morning due to long period SE swells. Seas should diminish shortly
after that to below SCA levels, except for the eastern ocean waters
where SCA conditions may linger through the afternoon.

Marginal SCA conditions anticipated on the ocean during Wednesday.
then all waters are expected to have advisory level conditions
Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon as low pressure passes to
the SE. Winds and seas diminish Thursday night with conditions
falling below advisory thresholds on the non-ocean waters by Friday
morning. Seas on the ocean will however remain elevated, partly due
to swell, on Friday with 5+ ft seas lingering potentially through
Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall Monday night through Tuesday night is expected to be in the
range of a half inch to an inch. No hydrologic impacts is expected
at this time.

An inch to two inches of rain will be possible Wednesday through
Thursday. With wet antecedent conditions and the potential for the
rain to be heavy at times, there will be the possibility of at least
minor urban/poor drainage and small river/stream flooding Wednesday
night into Thursday. The overall chance of flash flooding is low.

Impacts from the weekend storm are uncertain and will partly depend
on the amount of rain falling during the two rain events that will
precede it.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/BR
HYDROLOGY...JC/BR