000
FXUS61 KOKX 041543
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1043 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the area holds on through today, before
weakening tonight. Low pressure approaches from the Mid Atlantic
coast and moves slowly through Tuesday and Tuesday evening. A
second low pressure system approaches on Wednesday and passes to
our southeast on Thursday. High pressure then briefly builds in
during Friday ahead of another storm system next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor adjustments based on latest obs and trends. Low-level
moisture trapped beneath a subsidence inversion will likely
persist with a mostly cloudy day on tap.
The main pattern continues to be an active Pacific branch along with
an active true southerly branch. The southerly or pineapple branch
of the jet stream will be the branch that impacts our region in the
short term. Even though the ridge along the east coast amplifies some
during today, an embedded mid level shortwave moves northward slowly
along the lower Mid Atlantic coast. Ahead of this shortwave and
south of high pressure to the north an easterly flow will be light
at first, then start to increase a bit into this afternoon. Look for
a mostly cloudy day, with essentially overcast skies into this
afternoon. Despite the clouds and an onshore flow, temperatures will
continue to run above normal, although not quite as warm as the
previous 24 hours. Temperatures should get a good 7 to 10 degrees
above normal today.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight lower latitude moisture slowly moves up along the coast.
Model consensus suggests it stays mainly dry through the evening,
although BUFKIT soundings suggest perhaps some sprinkles or drizzle.
The rain should wait until just after midnight as the mid levels
take some time to moisten up. The 700 mb shortwave draws close
enough after 5-6z to provide some lift and to result in rain
breaking out from south to north across the area.
The steadiest rain looks to be during the first half of Tuesday
across the western half of the area, and across northeastern
sections Tuesday afternoon as PWATs approach 2 to 3 standardized
anomalies above normal. Most of the time the rain will be light,
with a few pockets of moderate rain that may last briefly at times
during the day. Towards the late afternoon the rain tapers across
western sections, and into the early evening from west to east. Rain
amounts look to range primarily from a half to three quarters of an
inch. Low pressure lifts northeast of the area Tuesday night and in
its wake a drier southwest flow develops. Clouds should persist with
plenty of upper level moisture and clouds moving across from the
WSW, and with a wet ground perhaps some low clouds and potentially
some patchy fog develops, although upper level clouds may prohibit
any patchy fog development. Temperatures on Tuesday will average a
few degrees above normal, with night times minimums still running
near 10 degrees above normal for both Monday night and Tuesday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern sets up during the long term period as
a 500mb shortwave shifts through the TN Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Associated surface low tracks
through the Southeastern US during this time and emerges off the Mid-
Atlantic coast early Thursday morning, passing to our southeast
later in the day. Rain chances increase Wednesday morning, before
becoming likely for most areas in the afternoon. Rain expected
Wednesday night and still likely for much of the day in most spots
on Thursday. Anomalously high PWATS on the order of 3-4 standard
deviations along with strong lift at times may lead to periods where
the rain could be heavy at times. Temperatures through the period
above normal, in the 50s on Wednesday and upper 40s and lower 50s
for Wednesday.
Lingering precip chances possible Thursday evening, otherwise drying
out as high pressure begins to nose down from the north. This area
of high pressure will keep us dry Friday and Friday night, then it
retreats to the NE this weekend. A complex low pressure system will
be pushing in from the south and west this weekend with rain chances
on Saturday, but rain overall more likely Saturday night and Sunday.
Still a chance that thermal profiles would be cold enough well
inland for a shot at a wintry mix at times, but with only marginally
cold air to begin with and high pressure retreating instead of
trying to build in, this looks to be mostly rain even for these
areas.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains northeast of the region today. Another
area of low pressure approaches from the south tonight and into
Tuesday.
Tricky forecast with respect to cloud cover. Forecast guidance
has differing timing for MVFR cigs to move into the region. Have
sided closer to the slightly slower GFS vs the faster NAM.
Forecast guidance has been over doing the cloud cover forecast
and while lower cigs can be seen on Satellite imagery this
morning well east of the region, it may not take some time to
reach the terminals. Will keep conditions VFR til around 20z,
then MVFR cigs should move into the NYC terminals. Winds are
expected to become more easterly this afternoon, and that could
help speed up the timing of the lower cloud cover into the area
as well.
Once cigs come down, its likely we stay down for the remainder
of the day/evening and overnight. Widespread IFR or lower is
expected tonight with rain moving into the region after 06z.
Light and variable winds become NE and then E this afternoon
under 10 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments will be likely to fine tune timing of lower cigs.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: IFR in Rain.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower. Chance of rain in the morning,
becoming likely in the afternoon into the night. E winds
G15-20kt at night.
Thursday: MVFR or lower in possible rain. NE-N winds G20-25kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR. N wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA dropped for the ocean zone between Sandy Hook and Fire
Island Inlet. This will be short-lived though as winds and seas
come up later tonight into Tuesday.
Otherwise, Small craft advisories will remain across the
remaining ocean zones until around midday Then there will be a
lull in seas for a good 12 hours. Small craft conditions are
then likely to return to the ocean zones towards early Tuesday
morning as seas climb to 5 ft and gusts approach 25 kt. Seas for
the day Tuesday climb to around 6 ft with gusts of 20 to 25 kt.
With low pressure moving away to the northeast Tuesday night
small craft conditions are likely to linger with continued
elevated seas of 5 to 6 ft. At this time it appears that the
south shore and eastern bays of Long Island experience marginal
small craft conditions.
Marginal SCA conditions anticipated on the ocean during Wednesday.
then all waters are expected to have advisory level conditions
Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon as low pressure passes to
the SE. Winds and seas diminish Thursday night with conditions
falling below advisory thresholds on the non-ocean waters by Friday
morning. Seas on the ocean will however remain elevated, partly due
to swell, on Friday with 5+ ft seas lingering potentially through
Friday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected with the system for late tonight
into Tuesday.
An inch to two inches of rain will be possible Wednesday through
Thursday. With wet antecedent conditions and the potential for the
rain to be heavy at times, there will be the possibility of at least
minor urban/poor drainage and small river/stream flooding Wednesday
night into Thursday. The overall chance of flash flooding is low.
Impacts from the weekend storm are uncertain and will partly depend
on the amount of rain falling during the two rain events that will
precede it.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/BR
MARINE...BC/JE
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE