000
FXUS61 KOKX 042101
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure extending from the Canadian Maritimes into the
Northeast will retreat out into the North Atlantic tonight,
while an area of low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast works
northward and into the area on Tuesday. The low lifts north of the
area Tuesday night. A second low pressure system approaches on
Wednesday and passes to our southeast on Thursday. High pressure
then briefly builds in during Friday ahead of another storm system
next weekend. High pressure slowly builds back in on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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One of the more challenging aspects thus far this afternoon has
been the varying amount of cloud cover across the region. Periods
of sun have allowed temperatures top out around 60 at a few
locations. Any partial clearing will be replaced by low clouds
redeveloping and working in from the east this evening.
The first in a series of southern branch systems will impact
the area late tonight into Tuesday. Anomalously high PW values
around 1.25" aided by a modest 40-50kt LLJ on the east side of
a coastal low will bring rain into the area late tonight. A few
showers and/or sprinkles are expected after midnight and will
become more widespread closer to daybreak. The rain will be
moderate at times, impacting western portions of the area first
before working east in tandem with the LLJ as the morning progresses.
By early Tuesday afternoon the coverage and intensity will
diminish with perhaps some heavier pockets of rain (embedded
showers) across far eastern LI/SE CT. Any lingering rain exits
the area by around midnight. All in all looking for about half
an inch of rain on average. This will more or less lay the
foundation for wet antecedent conditions with subsequent
rainfall events through the upcoming week. However, no flooding
issues are expected with this event.
Lows tonight will be on the warm side by about 10 degrees due to
cloud cover and an easterly flow. Highs on Tuesday though will
be limited to the upper 40s to around 50 with rain much of the
day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Any lingering rain exits the area by around midnight as the low
lifts to the north of the area. There will be brief respite in
the rain before the next system follows quickly on its heels
later Wednesday. Lows will again be in the lower 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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An unsettled weather pattern continues during the long term period
as a 500mb shortwave shifts through the TN Valley into the Mid-
Atlantic Wednesday into Wednesday night. Associated surface low
tracks through the Southeastern US during this time and emerges off
the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday morning, passing to our
southeast later in the day. Rain chances increase Wednesday morning
with the approach of enhanced moisture convergence and lift along an
inverted trough, then rain becomes likely for the entire forecast
area during the afternoon. Rainfall continues through Wednesday
night and may be heavy at times during this period as deep moisture
(PWATS on the order of 3-4 standard deviations) combines with strong
lift (llj/frontogenetic forcing + upper jet streak). See the
hydrology section below for potential impacts.
Rain will still be likely on Thursday, mainly east of NYC, although
there is some uncertainty as some models lag moisture along with
some lift from a trough aloft. Rain could potentially still be
likely at least in the morning for the entire forecast area. Last
chance of rain occurs before Thursday night in all but eastern
areas, then dry late Thursday night through most of Friday night as
high pressure noses down from the north.
A complex low pressure system will be pushing in from the south and
west this weekend with rain chances as early as late Friday night,
but rain appears to be overall more likely Saturday afternoon
through Sunday. Still a chance that thermal profiles would be cold
enough well inland for a shot at a wintry mix at times, but with
only marginally cold air to begin with and high pressure retreating
instead of trying to build in, this looks to be mostly rain even for
these areas. High pressure then follows for Monday with breezy, dry
and cooler conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure retreats to the northeast tonight, while another
area of low pressure approaches from the south into Tuesday.
Tricky forecast with respect to cloud cover. We have had some
unexpected clearing east and lowering to the west with ceiling
occasionally reaching MVFR. MVFR will fully overtake the area from
east to west later this evening. Tempos have been added of the
occasional MVFR. Winds are currently easterly around 10-15 kts, with
some occasional gusts being reported at some TAF sites.
Once cigs come down, its likely we stay down for the remainder of
the evening and overnight. Widespread IFR or lower is expected
tonight with rain moving into the region after 06z.
LIFR is possible during the middle and end of tomorrow with the
rainfall.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments will be likely to fine tune timing of lower cigs.
Occasional gusts may continue early this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday: IFR/LIFR in Rain.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower. Chance of rain in the morning, becoming
likely in the afternoon into the night. E winds G15-20kt at night.
Thursday: MVFR or lower in possible rain. NE-N winds G20-25kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR. N wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Saturday: MVFR possible with rain. E winds G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA in effect for the ocean waters Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A strengthening easterly flow tonight into Tuesday will result
in marginal SCA gusts and seas for the ocean waters. Seas
are expected to build to 4 to 6 ft. Strongest winds will be
during the morning hours with gusts up to 25 kt possible. Winds
will then back off in the afternoon, veering around the the
south as the low tracks primarily west of the waters.
Marginal SCA conditions anticipated on the ocean during Wednesday.
then all waters are expected to have advisory level conditions
Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon as low pressure passes to
the SE. Winds and seas diminish Thursday night with conditions
falling below advisory thresholds on the non-ocean waters by Friday
morning. Seas on the ocean will however remain elevated, partly due
to swell, with 5+ ft seas lingering Friday through Saturday morning.
An onshore flow increases Saturday afternoon ahead of the next storm
system with advisory-level conditions on all waters Saturday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected with the system for late tonight
into Tuesday.
1 to 2.50 inches of rain is expected Wednesday through Thursday with
the higher amounts anticipated over Long Island and SE CT. The
heaviest rainfall is expected to occur during the first half of
Wednesday night, when it could could fall heavily at times. There
will be the possibility of at least minor urban/poor drainage and
small river/stream flooding Wednesday night into Thursday. The
overall chance of flash flooding remains low at this point. If flash
flooding were to occur, for now it appears that it would more likely
occur east of NYC.
Potentially 1 to 1.50 inches of rain could fall with the following
storm system this weekend. Impacts with this event are still
somewhat uncertain as it will partly depend on the amount of rain
falling during the two rain events that will precede it.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW