000
FXUS61 KOKX 060000
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
700 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the area tonight, followed by
another low late Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure then
briefly builds in during Friday. Another storm system will
impact the region late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure
slowly builds back early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure is moving over western Long Island as of 6 pm this
evening. A weak coastal boundary has set up near Long Island
with the winds going SE to its south and a more E-NE flow to
its north. The weak onshore flow has also allowed visibilities
to drop this evening with locally dense fog possible at times.
Visibilities are lowest across Long Island, but may also lower
in SE CT as the low continues moving NE this evening. Have
issued an SPS for now for Long Island and southeast CT through
9pm. Think as the low lifts north and low level flow direction
shifts more to the W, the visibilities will improve and this
could occur before 9pm. May need to expand the SPS into CT as a
similar flow regime that is over Long Island may briefly set up
there as the low nears.
Otherwise, some rain or drizzle remains possible this evening.
Once the low gets N of the area, the precip should end.
Confidence is not high on the return of fog overnight. The
latest model soundings show enough flow above the surface for
turbulent mixing to keep any fog patchy. However, there is still
plenty of low level moisture in place and any partial clearing
late could allow for some more widespread fog to form.
Lows will generally be in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Rain develops from S to N on Wed as low pres over the Southeast
redevelops nwd towards the area. Moisture increases with pwats
just blw 1.5 inches. A warm front becomes nearly stationary
along the CT coast, bending swwd into nern NJ. This should serve
as a focus for bands of hvy rain late Wed aftn thru Wed eve,
before the whole sys passes to the N and E by 12Z Thu.
While extreme rainfall rates are not expected attm per the HREF
probs, hvy rates of around an inch per hour for prolonged
periods of time are possible with the setup. Widespread minor
flooding with areas of more significant flooding are expected as
a result. A flood watch has been issued for all of the cwa
except for Orange county. If the overall sys trends wwd, the
watch will need to be expanded to include Orange as well.
The 12 and 18Z modeling suggests hvy rain possible during the
eve commute for NYC and most if not all of the I-95 corridor.
This timing is subject to change however as we are still about
24 hours out.
Temps will be abv normal and the NBM with local adjustments has
been used.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Confidence continues to increase in unsettled weather continuing
through the upcoming weekend. The weather pattern looks quieter for
the first half of next week.
*Key Points*
*Low pressure slowly departs on Thursday bringing a gradual end to
the rain followed by a brief period of mainly dry conditions from
Thursday night through Friday night.
*The next storm system approaches Saturday, impacting the area late
in the day through Sunday.
*Another period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible
with the weekend system, but specific impacts are unknown at this
time and may be related to where the heaviest rain falls with the
Wednesday/Wednesday night system.
*Dry weather returns the first half of next week.
Broad low pressure will be situated off the east coast Thursday,
with the associated upper level trough over the northeast.
There is a good agreement among the modeling that the trough axis
will be slow to depart to the east. While the deepest moisture
should be offshore, there will likely be some lingering lighter rain
in the morning, which becomes scattered in the afternoon. Some of
the latest guidance is hinting at a mostly dry Thursday afternoon
with some lingering low clouds and a few sprinkles. Any impactful
rain with the mid week system is likely to occur through Wednesday
night and no additional significant rain is currently expected
Thursday.
A brief period of dry weather will occur Thursday night through
Friday as a ridge returns aloft and high pressure takes control at
the surface. Clouds will clear Thursday night leading to a mostly
sunny Friday. The ridge axis shifts east Friday night into Saturday
morning ahead of the next storm system. Developing low pressure
across the Plains on Friday shifts towards the Great Lakes Friday
night through Saturday. The low then tracks towards southeast Canada
Saturday night with redevelopment taking place over New England
Sunday morning. The low continues to deepen as it occludes near
Maine later Sunday into Sunday night.
The parent low passing well to our NW and retreating high pressure
support this event being a rain event. The latest model consensus
brings in the steadiest rain Saturday evening through Sunday
morning. Moderate to locally heavy rain could occur with this system
with another 1-2 inches of rain possible. These details are still of
lower confidence given that the event is several days away. It is
also important to note that where the heaviest rain occurs with the
Wednesday/Wednesday night system may result in hydrologic impacts
with the weekend system. The system departs Sunday with the
associated upper low passing through Sunday into into early Monday.
There could be some lingering precip Sunday night with the upper low
with a low potential of a rain/snow mix well inland.
High pressure builds in Monday into Tuesday and will be in control
into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be above normal
Friday in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Near normal highs in the
middle to upper 40s are expected Saturday with highs to slightly
above normal readings Sunday. Temperatures Monday may be below
normal in the lower to middle 40s before a warming trend Tuesday
into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure over the area late will gradually weaken as it
lifts northeast of the area tonight. Another wave of low
pressure approaches from the south Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon.
IFR to LIFR, with low potential of VLIFR toward Wednesday
morning. There may be a brief period of improvement to low end
MVFR late tonight, though confidence is low on this.
Winds become light and variable. There is a lot of uncertainty
and low confidence with the wind direction early tonight, and
are dependent on the timing and track of low pressure through
the region. Winds become E to NE Wednesday morning as another
wave of low pressure approaches from the south at around 10 kt
or less. A period of moderate to heavy rain is expected
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely due to variable flight change categories.
Wind direction may be off by more than 30 degrees through 02Z
based on track of low that is currently moving through the
forecast area. However, winds should remain below 10 kt.
Some improvement in flight categories is possible, especially
western terminals (KEWR and KTEB), but confidence is low on
this.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: IFR with rain developing by late afternoon.
IFR to LIFR at night with rain.
Thursday: MVFR or lower with a chance of rain. Winds N to NE G20-
25kt.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR with a chance of rain early, then rain likely late
day and at night.
Sunday: MVFR with rain in the morning. Possibly VFR in the afternoon
with a chance of rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Have issued a Marine Weather Statement through 9pm for locally
dense fog this evening. Once low pressure passes to the north
through the next several hours, visibilities should improve.
A SCA has been extended thru Wed ngt for mrgnl winds and seas
abv 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds and seas are expected to remain blw
SCA lvls thru Wed ngt.
SCA conditions are likely on all waters on Thursday. Winds on the
non-ocean waters should begin diminishing except for the Eastern
Sound Thursday night, with SCA conditions continuing on the ocean.
Winds should largely fall below SCA levels Friday except well east
of Moriches Inlet. Seas will remain elevated. A brief period of sub-
SCA conditions are expected Friday night before the next storm
system this weekend. SCA conditions should return late Saturday and
especially Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are fcst for Wed
aftn into Wed ngt. Top numbers could be in the 4-5 inch range,
particularly across CT, with persistent bands near the
warm/stationary front. Widespread minor flooding is expected,
with some river flooding as well as more significant flash
flooding possible.
An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall with the storm system
this weekend. Impacts with this event are still somewhat uncertain
as it will depend on where the heaviest rain falls with the
Wednesday/Wednesday night system.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS