000
FXUS61 KOKX 071134
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
634 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slowly pulls away today with high pressure north of the
area nosing in momentarily on Friday. Low pressure impacts the
region over the weekend. High pressure builds in behind the low next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Elongated low pressure works its way over Long Island early this
morning as a wedge of drier air in the low levels attempts to
work in from the S and SW. Scattered pockets of rain push out of
northern sections this morning. For later today look for cloudy
skies and the chance for a stratiform very light rain with the
winds out of due north as low pressure lingers and attempts to
redevelop just to the south and southeast. It likely stays
completely dry from late morning onward for the western half of
the CWA. With some higher res guidance and enough depth with the
moisture in BUFKIT soundings, thought it prudent to go just
above the NBM and other consensus guidance w respect to PoPs for
the eastern half of the CWA. Mainly slight to chance to chance
PoPs for the eastern half / eastern third of the region for this
afternoon. Any lingering light rain should end during the
evening for the eastern end of Long Island. It will be breezy
and will feel cooler with a north wind gusting at times to
around 25 mph. Temperatures will continue to average above
normal despite a good deal of clouds with mainly lower and
middle 50s, and some upper 40s out east for daytime maxes. For
tonight look for clearing from west to east towards late evening
and into the overnight with a drier north breeze. Cooler air
does arrive with temperatures still a few degrees above average,
but noticeably cooler late at night. Minimum temperatures
should get into the 30s, with northern portions of the Hudson
Valley getting to freezing.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A transitory high ridges down from the north into the region from
Labrador. This will keep the CWA dry. Skies should average out
mostly sunny, with perhaps some clouds offshore getting into far
eastern and southeastern sections. Temperatures will continue to run
a few degrees above normal, with mainly lower and middle 50s. Far
eastern sections may only get into the middle and upper 40s with
winds light out of the northeast. Clouds should then increase Friday
night well in advance of the next system that arrives for the
weekend later Saturday. Look for an onshore flow to develop late at
night with lows in the 30s, to around 40 in the NYC metro.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
NBM/previous forecast.
Subtropical pacific tap of moisture seen on water vapor gets here on
Sat. This will produce cloudy skies ahead of the next chances for
rain. As a deepening nrn stream trof interacts with this surge of
moisture, rain develops late Sat, ending Sun mrng. The pcpn is
mainly on the front end of this sys with a significant dry slot.
As the cold pool aloft moves in Sun ngt, pcpn chances transition to
shwrs. H85 gets to -8C so shsn possible. Drier weather returns for
Monday.
A ridge then builds across Tue and Wed keeping the area dry and
allowing for a warming trend.
The NBM was followed for temps Sat-Wed with a few local
adjustments.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes east of the terminals early this morning and
moves northeast of the region this afternoon.
Conditions have started to improve a bit with MVFR cigs at the
NYC terminals and IFR conditions further east. Some light rain
continues across the terminals and should end around 14-15z.
Expect the MVFR cigs through the morning and into the early
afternoon, then conditions improve to VFR. Timing in the TAF
may be off by an hour or two, which may result in an amendment.
KGON may stay MVFR into the evening.
North winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt expected through the day.
Winds diminish tonight with wind speed falling to 10kt or less
and winds becoming a bit more Northeasterly.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing ceilings and visibilities through
this morning.
The onset time of gusts frequent this morning may be off by 1-3
hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR into the afternoon, then becoming MVFR or lower with
rain developing late.
Saturday Night: IFR and rain. SE gusts 20-25 kt possible.
Sunday: MVFR or lower with rain in the morning with possible
improvements to VFR in the afternoon. S winds become W into the
afternoon. Gusts 20-25 kt, especially in the afternoon.
Monday: Mainly VFR. NW G25-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will be in place for all waters today and
into this evening, with small crafts likely lowered for the western
non-ocean waters late tonight. Small craft gusts are likely to
linger for the eastern non-ocean waters into early Friday morning.
Seas will remain elevated through Friday with small craft conditions
continuing on the ocean waters.
Conditions improve Friday night into early Saturday, then winds and
seas increase late Sat thru Sun with low pres tracking thru the
region. There is a chance for a period of gales with the system. It
remains windy on Monday with at least sca winds and Gales possible.
Winds gradually diminish on Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The next low pressure system to move across the area this weekend is
forecast to bring an average of 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain. Locally
higher amounts will be possible. WPC has placed the area in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Expect the potential for
another round of minor urban and nuisance type flooding.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As the weekend approaches water level departures begin to increase
as minor coastal flood benchmarks get approached. Towards the late
Saturday and early Sunday high tide cycles more widespread minor
coastal flooding is starting to appear likely, with some locations
in Western Long Island potentially reaching moderate coastal flood
benchmarks. Uncertainty still remains with respect to the winds and
the precise timing of the next storm system for the weekend as these
factors will impact the total water level forecast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-335-
338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JE
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...