000
FXUS61 KOKX 081241
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
741 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today gives way to a low pressure system over the
weekend. Low pressure over Northern New England Sunday night
will track slowly northeast into early next week, while high
pressure builds in from the west. The high moves across the area
on Wednesday, followed by a frontal system for the end of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A 1036 high was centered over Quebec/Labrador at 6Z. The high will
ridge swd thru the local area today. IR shows that the cwa will be
mostly sunny, with clouds exiting east of MTP, and advancing
high clouds still across swrn PA. Light N flow veers to the ESE by
the end of the day. Cooler ern portions of the cwa near the ocean
with the onshore component flow, otherwise highs in the lower to mid
50s per the NBM.
Increasing clouds tngt. This should offset the light winds, and keep
the area from bottoming out temp-wise. Followed the NBM with local
adjustments as a result.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cloudy on Sat with rain developing in the aftn, especially W of the
Hudson, as the subtropical pacific tap feeds into the region. Shrtwv
over nrn SK will be dropping into the area over the weekend, and
sharpening the upr trof by Sat ngt. This will result in developing
low pres to pass thru the region Sat ngt, producing a round of rain
and sely winds. A few embedded elevated tstms possible as the
nose of the theta-e ridge builds in. All of the rain is on the
front end of the sys. The models have been very consistent with
this and bringing the dry slot thru by 12Z Sun. Based on the
current modeling, peak wind gusts blw advy lvls with max NAM BL
barbs at 40kt, but any increase in strength could bring winds up
into the advy range particularly at the coasts.
A colder airmass will begin to surge into the area during the day on
Sun. As the upr low reaches the area by the end of the day,
steepening lapse rates should trigger convective pcpn. Went abv the
NBM pops for this, going with sct shwrs in the aftn. Some IP or SHSN
possible with the cooling column. Ground will be warm so no accums
if there is any snow. It would not be surprising to see a few
lightning strikes in this setup, although the timing, probability,
and coverage are too low to include in the fcst attm.
Winds will also crank up again by late in the day on Sun with deep
wly component flow. 30-40kt at h85 per the NAM and GFS should
roughly yield gusts in the 35-40 mph range.
Temperatures close to the NBM except for Sun aftn where falling
temps were included.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper low over the Northeast Sunday night will track offshore,
while its surface low over northern Maine occludes as it moves
off the coast on Monday. High pressure will build in from the
west during this time, maintaining a strong pressure gradient
and gusty W-WNW winds. Forecast wind gusts up to 40 mph are
expected Sunday night into Monday, then gradually diminishing as
the high moves in from the west. There is a low chance of
meeting wind advisory criteria at this time (sustained 31-39
mph, gusts 46-57 mph).
In addition, as cold air works into the region, there is a chance
for rain and/or snow showers inland during the first half of Sunday
night. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the middle of
next week as ridging both aloft and the surface works across the
area. There is a chance of showers Thursday night with an
approaching frontal system. The upper flow by this time will become
progressive and southern branch dominated. 00Z Globals are all
pointing toward a split flow late in the week out west with
potential for a cutoff low over the desert SW and a possible dip in
the norther branch next weekend across the Norther Plains. This will
allow for miler Pac air to work into the area after a brief cool
down Sunday into Monday. By mid week, much of the area will be in
the 50s with interior locations possibly the 60s. However, immediate
coastal areas, especially eastern LI/SE CT will likely be cooler due
to a southerly flow off the colder waters.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds across the area through early this
afternoon, then passes offshore. A frontal system approaches
from the west on Saturday.
VFR through much of tonight. MVFR develops Saturday morning
around or shortly before 12Z for all except KGON. Rain likely
develops from west to east during the late afternoon into
evening hours.
NNE winds 10 kt or less this morning will gradually shift to
the ESE-SE in the afternoon, possibly becoming light and
variable tonight. SE winds strengthen on Saturday with G15-20kt
by early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift to the ESE-SE this afternoon could be off by 1-
3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Becoming MVFR in the morning. Rain develops toward
evening. SE G15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Saturday Night: IFR and rain. SE gusts 25-30 kt possible. Chance
of SE LLWS.
Sunday: MVFR or lower with rain in the morning with possible
improvements to VFR in the afternoon. S winds become W in the
morning. Gusts 25-30 kt, especially in the afternoon.
Monday: Mainly VFR. NW G30-35 kt.
Tuesday: VFR. NW G20-25kt
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will continue to diminish today. Seas on the ocean will be
slow to subside however, and just as they drop blw 5ft Sat mrng,
they come right back up by the end of the day. As a result, the SCA
was extended on the ocean thru the day on Sat.
Low pres tracks across the area Sat ngt. A round of strong winds can
be expected ahead of the low. A gale watch has been issued for all
waters. Winds will increase out of the W late on Sun. Speeds may
reach gale, but the timing is uncertain so the gale watch was
not extended into Sun attm.
There is a good chance of gales across the waters Sunday night into
Monday, especially the ocean, in WNW flow behind departing low
pressure near the Canadian Maritimes. Winds will gradually subside
Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure building in from the
west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Around an inch of rain is expected late Sat and Sat ngt. Locally
higher amounts possible in any convective elements. Some minor
impacts are possible due to saturated soils.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As the weekend approaches, water level departures begin to increase
as minor coastal flood benchmarks get approached. Water levels may
touch in some spots for this morning`s high tide cycle, in
particular coastal Fairfield County and the south shore bays of
Nassau County. A statement or even an advisory could however be
needed for the Saturday morning high tide cycle for these locations,
including spots around Jamaica Bay and Lower NY Harbor. A more
widespread minor flooding event will be more likely with the high
tide cycles of Saturday night and Sunday morning. There is even the
potential of moderate coastal flooding along southern Nassau County
Sunday morning. Uncertainty still remains with respect to the timing
of winds shifting offshore during Sunday morning, which will factor
into total water level forecast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...