000
FXUS61 KOKX 081857
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
157 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today gives way to a low pressure system over the
weekend. Low pressure over Northern New England Sunday night
will track slowly northeast into early next week, while high
pressure builds in from the west. The high moves across the area
on Wednesday, followed by a frontal system for the end of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast is mainly on track. Lowered dewpoints for the rest
of the day based on the latest obs. High pressure remains in
place this afternoon with sunny conditions. Light N-NE flow
veers to the ESE by the end of the day. Cooler ern portions of
the cwa near the ocean with the onshore component flow,
otherwise highs in the lower to mid 50s per the NBM.
Increasing clouds tngt. This should offset the light winds, and keep
the area from bottoming out temp-wise. Followed the NBM with local
adjustments as a result.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cloudy on Sat with rain developing in the aftn, especially W of the
Hudson, as the subtropical pacific tap feeds into the region. Shrtwv
over nrn SK will be dropping into the area over the weekend, and
sharpening the upr trof by Sat ngt. This will result in developing
low pres to pass thru the region Sat ngt, producing a round of rain
and sely winds. A few embedded elevated tstms possible as the
nose of the theta-e ridge builds in. All of the rain is on the
front end of the sys. The models have been very consistent with
this and bringing the dry slot thru by 12Z Sun. Based on the
current modeling, peak wind gusts blw advy lvls with max NAM BL
barbs at 40kt, but any increase in strength could bring winds up
into the advy range particularly at the coasts.
A colder air mass will begin to surge into the area during the
day on Sun. As the upr low reaches the area by the end of the
day, steepening lapse rates should trigger convective pcpn. Went
abv the NBM pops for this, going with sct shwrs in the aftn.
Some PL or SHSN possible with the cooling column. Ground will be
warm so no accums if there is any snow. It would not be
surprising to see a few lightning strikes in this setup,
although the timing, probability, and coverage are too low to
include in the fcst attm.
Winds will also crank up again by late in the day on Sun with deep
wly component flow. 30-40kt at h85 per the NAM and GFS should
roughly yield gusts in the 35-40 mph range.
Temperatures close to the NBM except for Sun aftn where falling
temps were included.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper low over the Northeast Sunday night will track offshore,
while its surface low over northern Maine occludes as it moves
off the coast on Monday. High pressure will build in from the
west during this time, maintaining a strong pressure gradient
and gusty W-WNW winds. Forecast wind gusts up to 40 mph are
expected Sunday night into Monday, then gradually diminishing as
the high moves in from the west. There is a low chance of
meeting wind advisory criteria at this time (sustained 31-39
mph, gusts 46-57 mph).
In addition, as cold air works into the region, there is a chance
for rain and/or snow showers inland during the first half of Sunday
night. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the middle of
next week as ridging both aloft and the surface works across the
area. There is a chance of showers Thursday night with an
approaching frontal system. The upper flow by this time will become
progressive and southern branch dominated. 00Z Globals are all
pointing toward a split flow late in the week out west with
potential for a cutoff low over the desert SW and a possible dip in
the norther branch next weekend across the Norther Plains. This will
allow for miler Pac air to work into the area after a brief cool
down Sunday into Monday. By mid week, much of the area will be in
the 50s with interior locations possibly the 60s. However, immediate
coastal areas, especially eastern LI/SE CT will likely be cooler due
to a southerly flow off the colder waters.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will pass east through tonight. A frontal system
will approach from the west on Saturday.
MVFR cigs tonight are on track to develop earlier than fcst.
Some spots could see TEMPO cigs as early as midnight, but the
most likely time frame should be around 07Z-08Z, perhaps a
little later (09Z-10Z) at KBDR/KGON.
E-NE winds less than 10 kt should shift SE and continue into
tonight. SE winds then increase to around or just after 10 kt
from 12Z-14Z Sat, with some gusts 15-20 kt along the coast by
late morning/early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD still possible to adjust timing of wind shift to the SE
late this afternoon. Direction could be more southerly than
fcst after the wind shift especially at KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: MVFR cigs. Rain developing toward evening.
SE winds G20-25kt along the coast and 15-20kt inland.
Saturday night: IFR in rain. SE winds G25-30kt. Chance of SE
LLWS.
Sunday: MVFR early, then VFR, except at KGON which may still be
IFR early, then become MVFR later in the morning and VFR by
afternoon. SW winds 15-20G25kt early, becoming W 20-25G30-35 kt
by afternoon.
Sunday night: VFR. W winds 15-20G25-30kt.
Monday: VFR. NW winds 25G35-40kt.
Monday night: VFR. NW winds diminishing to 15-20G25kt.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G20kt.
Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on the ocean due to a lingering swell.
Wave heights may fluctuate between 4 and 5 feet this afternoon
and tonight - maybe even into a portion of Saturday. Might need
to make adjustments to the SCA after new guidance becomes
available. For now, SCA on the ocean remains through Saturday
afternoon.
Low pres tracks across the area Sat ngt. A round of
strong winds can be expected ahead of the low. A gale watch has
been issued for all waters. Winds will increase out of the W
late on Sun. Speeds may reach gale, but the timing is uncertain
so the gale watch was not extended into Sun attm.
There is a good chance of gales across the waters Sunday night into
Monday, especially the ocean, in WNW flow behind departing low
pressure near the Canadian Maritimes. Winds will gradually subside
Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure building in from the
west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Around an inch of rain is expected late Sat and Sat ngt. Locally
higher amounts possible in any convective elements. Some minor
impacts are possible due to saturated soils.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water level departures begin to increase this weekend as minor
coastal flood benchmarks get approached. A statement or even an
advisory could however be needed for the Saturday morning high
tide cycle for these locations, including spots around Jamaica
Bay and Lower NY Harbor. A more widespread minor flooding event
will be more likely with the high tide cycles of Saturday night
and Sunday morning. There is even the potential of moderate
coastal flooding along southern Nassau County Sunday morning.
Uncertainty still remains with respect to the timing of winds
shifting offshore during Sunday morning, which will factor into
total water level forecast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...