000
FXUS61 KOKX 090947
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
447 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure develops over the Carolinas today, then tracks across
the New York City Metropolitan Area tonight and into Maine on
Sunday. High pressure then builds in from the west through the
middle of next week, and offshore by the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A stormy night is still on track across the area. The models are
in good agreement that a roughly 993 low will track thru or very
close to NYC at 6Z. The ECMWF is the only model out of the main
group a little outside of the cluster, and this is only about
60 miles SE of the center of the low tracks. As a result, the
timing has been adjusted per the NBM which is slightly faster
than the previous fcst.
Rain develops from W to E today, but is mainly light until around
00Z when locally hvy rain will be possible across swrn zones, then
spreading newd thru 6Z. Expanded slightly tstm chances based on
model track and timing. A track closer to the ECMWF will relegate
tstm chances to far ern zones.
No changes to the flood watch. The HREF keeps probs of >2 inches per
3 hr and >3 inches per 6 hr at zero. Flood impact expectations are
therefore unchanged from the previous fcst.
Winds will ramp up tngt as the low gets closer. Not much change in
the intensity fcst, with BL winds in the 30-40kt range expected to
yield gusts up to 40 mph, strongest at the coasts.
After the low passes, the rain shuts off quickly and a deep wly
component flow develops. There could be an hour or so of fog
with the low passage, but it has not been included in the fcst
due to the brevity. The NAM models the speed of the low at about
24kt.
The entire cwa should be mainly dry at 12Z based on the 00Z data.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The massive h5 low will come thru about 00Z Mon. With the
substantial cold pool aloft, dpva, and even some sbcape, I still
think the NBM is way too low with pops. Blanketed the whole cwa with
aftn and eve 30 pops for sct shwrs of snow and rain. Some ip also
possible. Temps should fall in the aftn, with dewpoints dropping
into the 20s.
Sun will also mark the start of a period of strong W to NW
winds. Direction will be more W on Sun, then veer to the NW Sun
ngt as winds aloft also increase. The breezy conditions on Sun
will strengthen Sun ngt, with h85 around 50kt on Mon. Deep
mixing is likely in this pattern, so manually raised wind during
the day on Mon over the land. There is advy potential there.
The winds will likely keep wind chills from getting out of the
30s.
Although Mon will feel chilly, high temperatures are modeled to be
right around normal for the date. This will be the coldest day of
the fcst period with a warming trend starting on Tue.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The gusty winds will diminish Mon ngt, then the rest of the
week will feature mainly quiet and dry conditions, with a
warming trend. A ridge builds over the eastern CONUS aloft as
high pressure remains in control at the surface. Highs Tuesday
will be in the 50s and by Friday they will be in the mid 50s to
upper 60s. A frontal system does approach late week and could
bring unsettled weather to the area. For now, stuck close to the
NBM during that time period as there is quite a bit of spread
among the deterministic guidance. This gives slight chance PoPs
Friday morning increasing to chance PoPs by the afternoon. This
would be an all plain rain event.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore with low pressure
approaching from the south and west late Saturday.
With the development of stratus overnight going into early Saturday,
MVFR conditions will become more widespread. Rain ahead of the
low starts Saturday mid to late afternoon west to east. IFR will
be possible at times Saturday, becoming more likely at night.
Rain Saturday night could become heavy at times. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms for late evening.
Winds will become generally SE near 5-8 kt overnight. Winds
become more easterly Saturday and remain generally near 5-10 kt
for Saturday morning before picking up during the afternoon.
Winds increase to 10-15 kt range in the afternoon and then to
15-20 kt going into early evening. Gusts will become more likely
Saturday afternoon up to 20 kt, but around 25 kt going into
early evening. LLWS arrives towards late evening with SE winds
near 45-50 kt for most coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely to refine timing of MVFR, IFR and the rain
which could be a few hours off compared to TAF. There could be
fluctuation between MVFR and IFR throughout the day on Saturday.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Late Saturday night: MVFR to IFR with rain. Localized Sub-IFR
possible at times. SE winds near 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt,
becoming more northerly to westerly late into early Sunday AM
10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt. LLWS SE winds 45-50 kt at 2kft
overnight. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday: MVFR early, then VFR by afternoon, except at KGON which
could be IFR early, then become MVFR later in the morning and
VFR by afternoon. SW winds 15-20G25kt early, becoming W
20-25G30-35 kt by afternoon. Rain showers possible, especially
near KGON and KSWF.
Sunday night: MVFR possible. Rain and snow showers possible Sunday
night for KHPN, KSWF and CT terminals. Otherwise, VFR. W winds 15-
20G25-30kt.
Monday: VFR. NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts near 35-40 kt.
Monday night: VFR. NW winds near 20 kt in the evening
with gusts up to 25-30 kt, eventually decreasing to 10-15 kt
with gusts 20-25kt late.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.
Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Seas on the ocean near sca lvls today, then winds and seas build
everywhere by this eve. Gale warning on the ocean, and srn and
ern waters for tngt. Elsewhere, a watch remains in effect with
more uncertainty.
Winds may stay just blw gale on Sun, even on the ocean, before
ramping up again Sun ngt and Mon. The watch has been extended thru
Mon for all waters.
Gusts lower Monday night, but could remain around Small Craft
Advisory criteria through Tuesday. Thereafter, winds and waves
look to remain below SCA criteria, with the next potential being
with a frontal system at the end of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Around 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected to fall this afternoon
through tonight. The higher amounts are expected to be north and
west of NYC. There will be the chance of flash flooding, primarily
nearby smaller rivers and streams across NE NJ into Rockland County
due to antecedent wet soils and the anticipated rain totals. The
heaviest rainfall is expected this evening into the early morning
hours of Sunday. Otherwise, mainly minor/poor drainage flooding will
be possible tonight.
There are no hydrologic concerns Sunday night through next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Update will be coming soon.
Water levels will be on the increase going into this weekend.
Statements and advisories are up for the high tide cycles
through Sat morning as water levels approach or exceed minor
thresholds.
Coastal flood watches remain for Sat night for the western Sound,
and for Sat night into Sunday morning for the south shore of Long
Island and Jamaica Bay. SE winds ramping up to gale force Sat
evening should result in tide departures of about 2.5 to 3 ft in
the western Sound and along the south shore of western Long Island
Sat evening per 2:1 blend of NYHOPS 50th and 95th percentile,
with water levels likely reaching moderate thresholds in the watch
area, with widespread minor flooding elsewhere.
As winds shift SW-W Sunday morning higher water levels, with
surge up to 2.5 ft on top of higher astronomical tides, should
lead to another round of minor to moderate flooding. Higher
surge is likely to be pushed eastward into the Great South Bay
and Jamaica Bay as has occurred with a few other events this
winter, with moderate flooding expected there, and at least
minor flooding elsewhere. Blend of Stevens NYHOPS 50th/95th
percentiles and the PETSS 50th percentile (leaning toward PETSS
numbers where higher along the Great South Bay) captures this
scenario.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon EST
today for CTZ009.
Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through late tonight for
CTZ009.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Sunday for CTZ010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon EST
today for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through late tonight for
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
NYZ069.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EST this evening for
NYZ072-074-075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Sunday for NYZ079-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST
tonight for NYZ080.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ179.
NJ...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EST this evening for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Watch from this evening through Monday evening for ANZ331-
335-338.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ332-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
ANZ332-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC/JT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...