000
FXUS61 KOKX 091334
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
834 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure develops over the Carolinas today, then tracks across
the New York City Metropolitan Area tonight and into Maine on
Sunday. High pressure then builds in from the west through the
middle of next week, and offshore by the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stormy night is still on track across the area. The models are
in good agreement that a roughly 993 low will track thru or very
close to NYC at 6Z. The ECMWF is the only model out of the main
group a little outside of the cluster, and this is only about
60 miles SE of the center of the low tracks. As a result, the
timing has been adjusted per the NBM which is slightly faster
than the previous fcst.
Rain develops from W to E today, but is mainly light until around
00Z when locally hvy rain will be possible across swrn zones, then
spreading newd thru 6Z. Expanded slightly tstm chances based on
model track and timing. A track closer to the ECMWF will relegate
tstm chances to far ern zones.
No changes to the flood watch. The HREF keeps probs of >2 inches per
3 hr and >3 inches per 6 hr at zero. Flood impact expectations are
therefore unchanged from the previous fcst.
Winds will ramp up tngt as the low gets closer. Not much change in
the intensity fcst, with BL winds in the 30-40kt range expected to
yield gusts up to 40 mph, strongest at the coasts.
After the low passes, the rain shuts off quickly and a deep wly
component flow develops. There could be an hour or so of fog
with the low passage, but it has not been included in the fcst
due to the brevity. The NAM models the speed of the low at about
24kt.
The entire cwa should be mainly dry at 12Z based on the 00Z data.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The massive h5 low will come thru about 00Z Mon. With the
substantial cold pool aloft, dpva, and even some sbcape, I still
think the NBM is way too low with pops. Blanketed the whole cwa with
aftn and eve 30 pops for sct shwrs of snow and rain. Some IP
also possible. Temps should fall in the aftn, with dewpoints
dropping into the 20s.
Sun will also mark the start of a period of strong W to NW
winds. Direction will be more W on Sun, then veer to the NW Sun
ngt as winds aloft also increase. The breezy conditions on Sun
will strengthen Sun ngt, with h85 around 50kt on Mon. Deep
mixing is likely in this pattern, so manually raised wind during
the day on Mon over the land. There is advy potential there.
The winds will likely keep wind chills from getting out of the
30s.
Although Mon will feel chilly, high temperatures are modeled to be
right around normal for the date. This will be the coldest day of
the fcst period with a warming trend starting on Tue.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The gusty winds will diminish Mon ngt, then the rest of the
week will feature mainly quiet and dry conditions, with a
warming trend. A ridge builds over the eastern CONUS aloft as
high pressure remains in control at the surface. Highs Tuesday
will be in the 50s and by Friday they will be in the mid 50s to
upper 60s. A frontal system does approach late week and could
bring unsettled weather to the area. For now, stuck close to the
NBM during that time period as there is quite a bit of spread
among the deterministic guidance. This gives slight chance PoPs
Friday morning increasing to chance PoPs by the afternoon. This
would be an all plain rain event.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deepening low pressure will approach from the southwest today,
passing across the area late tonight, then to the north on
Sunday.
Widespread MVFR ceilings this morning will lower this afternoon
as rain overspreads the area from west to east. IFR conditions
are then likely tonight with moderate to heavy rain.
Improvement to MVFR form 09Z to 12Z as the rain exits to the
east.
E/SE winds 5-10 kt this morning will picking up during the
afternoon. Winds increase to 10-15 kt range in the afternoon and
then to 15-20 kt going into early evening. Gusts will become
more likely this afternoon up to 20 kt, but around 25 kt going
into early evening. LLWS arrives towards late evening with SE
winds near 45-50 kt for most coastal terminals. Winds veer
around to the W/SW toward 12Z Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely to refine timing of MVFR, IFR and the rain
which could be a few hours off compared to TAF. There could be
fluctuation between MVFR and IFR this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: MVFR early, then VFR by afternoon, except at KGON which
could be IFR early, then become MVFR later in the morning and
VFR by afternoon. SW winds 15-20G25kt early, becoming W
20-25G30-35 kt by afternoon. Rain showers possible, especially
near KGON and KSWF.
Sunday night: MVFR possible. Rain and snow showers possible Sunday
night for KHPN, KSWF and CT terminals. Otherwise, VFR. W winds 15-
20G25-30kt.
Monday: VFR. NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts near 35-40 kt.
Monday night: VFR. NW winds near 20 kt in the evening
with gusts up to 25-30 kt, eventually decreasing to 10-15 kt
with gusts 20-25kt late.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.
Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas on the ocean near sca lvls today, then winds and seas build
everywhere by this eve. Gale warning on the ocean, and srn and
ern waters for tngt. Elsewhere, a watch remains in effect with
more uncertainty.
Winds may stay just blw gale on Sun, even on the ocean, before
ramping up again Sun ngt and Mon. The watch has been extended thru
Mon for all waters.
Gusts lower Monday night, but could remain around Small Craft
Advisory criteria through Tuesday. Thereafter, winds and waves
look to remain below SCA criteria, with the next potential being
with a frontal system at the end of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Around 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected to fall this afternoon
through tonight. The higher amounts are expected to be north and
west of NYC. There will be the chance of flash flooding, primarily
nearby smaller rivers and streams across NE NJ into Rockland County
due to antecedent wet soils and the anticipated rain totals. The
heaviest rainfall is expected this evening into the early morning
hours of Sunday. Otherwise, mainly minor/poor drainage flooding will
be possible tonight.
There are no hydrologic concerns Sunday night through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood hazards have been updated with some adjustments.
The coastal flood watch for the south shore of Long Island for
tonight`s high tide cycle has been converted to a coastal flood
advisory. A coastal flood advisory has also been issued for
locations adjacent to lower NY Harbor and southern New Haven
county for tonight`s high tide cycle.
Elsewhere, a coastal flood watch remains in effect tonight for
the western half of Long Island Sound with advisories remaining
in effect for this morning`s high tide cycle across the south
shore back bays of western LI and western LI Sound, with a
statement for Lower NY Harbor.
A strengthening SE flow today with gale force gusts on the
adjacent waters tonight will coincide with high astronomical
tides, in some cases producing water levels 2 to 3 ft above
normal. This will result in widespread minor to moderate coastal
flooding during the times of high tide tonight. This morning`s
high cycle will be less impactful without strongest wind
forcing. The watch was kept up across western LI Sound tonight
due to a longer period of strong ESE winds. The forecast calls
for several locations to touch moderate with the potential of
going a few tenths higher. For the south shore of LI, the watch
was dropped as any moderate coastal flooding should be more
localized due to a shorter duration of the strongest winds.
As winds shift to the west Sunday morning, there is some uncertainty
with how much water escapes out of the south shore back bays of
western LI, and the potential for water sloshing to eastern
portions of the Great South Bay. Across Long Island Sound, this
seems less likely to be a problem due to a later high tide cycle
and thus longer duration of west winds.
For the ocean front, a forecast 8 to 12 ft surf will likely
cause scattered dune erosion.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ009.
Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through late tonight for
CTZ009.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Sunday for CTZ010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through late tonight for
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
NYZ069.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EST this evening for
NYZ072-074-075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Sunday for NYZ079-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST
tonight for NYZ080.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ179.
NJ...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EST this evening for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Watch from 6 PM EST this evening through Monday evening
for ANZ331-335-338.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ332-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
ANZ332-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC/JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW