000
FXUS61 KOKX 100257
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
957 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure over the Delmarva region will pass across the New
York City Metropolitan Area after midnight on its way to Main by
Sunday afternoon. High pressure to the south will then in
control through Tuesday. A frontal system may stall nearby for
mid week, before lifting north as a warm front late Thursday
and Friday. Another frontal system will follow on Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast models continue to be in very good agreement that a
roughly 993 mb low will track over or very close to NYC around
07Z. Made only minor adjustments to the previous forecast, with
the best chances for rain are through at least the first half
of the overnight. PoP tapers of from SW-NW from about 06Z-10Z as
the deepening low moves into New England and a dry slot moves
across.
Rainfall amounts will range between 1-2 inches, with some of it
heavy at times. Flood watch continues for all but NYC and Long
Island. There will be a chance of flash flooding along some of
the rivers and streams across the watch area due to antecedent
wet soils and the anticipated rain totals. Across NYC and Long
Island, we are generally looking at a potential for minor/poor
drainage flooding tonight.
SE winds have been stronger than expected, with some isolated
gusts 40-45 kt across NYC and Long Island. Winds will be less
across the interior.
Temps from the upper 30s to mid 40s as of 02Z will be on the
rise, to near 50 in NYC metro and across Long Island/SE CT,
and into the 40s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Not too much change in the short term period.
Sunday will be the start of a period of strong W to NW winds.
Direction will be more W on Sun, then veer to the NW Sunday
night as winds aloft also increase. The brisk conditions on Sun
will strengthen Sunday night, with 850mb winds around 50 kt on
Monday. Deep mixing is likely in this pattern. Wind advisory
headlines seem likely on Monday, but its still a tad early right
now for headlines. The winds will likely keep wind chills from
getting out of the 30s.
A large upper level low passes over the region late Sunday and
Sunday night. As it does, expect some additional cloud cover.
Also, with the substantial cold pool aloft, dpva, and even some
sbcape, kept a 30 PoP in the forecast. Expect a chance of snow
and rain showers. Can not rule out some ice pellets as well.
Temps fall late in the afternoon, with dewpoints dropping into
the 20s.
High temps on Sunday will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
While Monday will feel chilly due to the wind, high
temperatures are expected to be in the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Key Points:
* Winds diminish Monday night into Tuesday morning.
* A warming trend takes place.
The upper level low gets further to the northeast and well up
into the Canadian Maritimes Monday night and into Tuesday
morning. This will lead to a diminishing of the winds.
Afterwards for midweek, in response to the digging and
amplification of the upstream trough over the Rockies a ridge
builds across the East. This will lead to a warming trend with
temperatures averaging well above normal for the mid and late
week period with dry conditions.
The trough will approach late in the week and likely bring
another round of unsettled weather in the form of rain late
Friday and Saturday with the arrival of low pressure and its
associated occluded / cold front. There are differences in
timing and in the handling of the Pacific branch and any
potential interaction with the pure southern branch of the jet.
Thus chose to take a consensus blend, which the NBM seemed
reasonable with respect to PoPs for Friday and Saturday.
The greatest deal of uncertainty deals with temperatures for
Wednesday through Friday. By Thursday max temperatures are
likely to get into the 60s across a good portion of the area,
particularly away from the coast. If more of a westerly
component to the wind develops closer to the surface, then
temperatures could get even warmer than currently advertised.
Some 70s therefore are a possibility away from the coast later
in the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Deepening low pressure, moving into southern New Jersey at 02Z,
will continue to approach from the south, passing across the
area late tonight, around 06Z to 09Z, and then to the north and
east on Sunday.
Periods of rain, light to moderate at times, and briefly heavy,
with IFR to LIFR will continues into late tonight. Thunder
can`t be ruled out this evening, mainly for the NYC terminals,
but not confident enough to include in the TAFs.
Improvement to MVFR and then VFR expected late tonight west, and
toward Sunday morning east, with the passage of an occluded
front, and with the rain ending. There is a chance that MVFR
conditions persist late morning into the early afternoon on
Sunday. There may be some residual scattered rain or snow
showers Sunday afternoon into the evening which may result in
brief MVFR conditions.
E/SE winds 10-15 kt with gusts between 25kt and 35kt, highest
near the coast, will be diminishing late tonight, and becoming
SE to S. Winds may even become variable as the center of low
pressure passes over or near the NYC metro terminals. Winds then
become westerly toward Sunday morning with gusts developing.
The strongest winds and gusts will be late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening, with gusts around 35 kt possible.
LLWS, with SE winds becoming S and then SW, at 2K ft will be 45
to 55 kt, and possibly as high as 65 kt at KGON this evening.
Wind shear included in the forecast for the NYC metro and
eastern terminals. Winds shear ends as winds become westerly.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely especially late tonight into Sunday morning,
to refine timing of heaviest rain, and possible flight category
changes. Isolated thunder remains possible this evening but not
confident enough to include in the TAFs.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR. W winds 15-20kt G25-35kt.
Monday: VFR. W/NW winds 20-25kt gusts near 35-40kt.
Monday night: VFR. NW winds near 20 kt in the evening with gusts up
to 25-30 kt, eventually decreasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25kt
late.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.
Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Hoisted gale warning on all waters except wrn Long Island Sound
with buoys/platforms and nearby land obs gusting to 35-45 kt in
the harbor, on the ocean and on ern Long Island sound.
On Sunday, the gales go away and will need to be replaced with
Small Craft headlines. There may be a period on the non-ocean
waters where conditions fall below SCA. However, winds and seas
increase again Sunday night into Monday. Gale watches remain in
effect for all waters on Monday. Ocean seas will remain 8-11 ft
through Monday.
Gales will give way to small craft conditions Monday night as
the winds begin to diminish. Any small craft conditions early
on Tuesday should give way to sub small craft conditions for
late Tuesday. More tranquil conditions are expected towards
Wednesday and much of Thursday with light winds and ocean seas
closer to 2 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Around 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected to fall through
tonight, with the higher amts north and west of NYC. There will
be the chance of flash flooding, primarily along the smaller
rivers and streams due to antecedent wet soils and the
anticipated rain totals. The heaviest rainfall is expected
this evening into the early morning hours of Sunday. Otherwise,
mainly minor/poor drainage flooding will be possible tonight.
There are no hydrologic concerns Sunday night through next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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For tonight: Coastal flood warnings remain in effect for this
evening`s high tide for Nassau and SW Suffolk, with the
Freeport, Hog Island, and Lindenhurst USGS gauges all having
gone well into moderate flood. Timing of these warnings until 11
PM EST for Nassau and 2 AM EDT for western Suffolk is still on
track.
On the western Sound, the Glen Cove, Kings Point, Stamford and
Bridgeport gauges all remain on track to reach moderate flood
thresholds just before midnight EST, with the warning in effect
until 2 AM EDT. Strong onshore flow and associated wave action
will likely exacerbate problems along the coast of S Fairfield
as seas in the western Sound just offshore reach 3-4 ft around
the time of high tide.
Coastal flood advisory remains in effect for NW Suffolk, where
guidance predicts water levels to approach moderate thresholds
in some spots, but where offshore SE flow may have some
mitigating influence.
Coastal flood advisories remain in effect for all other waters,
and a river flood advisory until 11 PM for Rockland and Hudson
where the tidal Hudson has gone into flood at the Piermont
gauge. Water levels across the eastern Great South Bay and the
eastern Sound look like they will remain mostly below flood
thresholds, but the Riverhead gauge on Peconic Bay still looks
on track to reach the minor threshold.
For Sunday morning: Still have concern that strong SE flow
followed by strong SW-W flow will result in water remaining
trapped in the Long Island south shore bays, which would then
slosh eastward into the Great South Bay, and that water levels
elsewhere will be higher than than the Stevens 50th percentile.
Took a 2:1 blend of the Stevens 95th and 50th percentile
forecasts, and nudged that toward PETSS 50th percentile guidance
on the Long Island south shore bays where higher.
This forecast results in moderate flooding for Jamaica Bay (S
Queens portion) and another round for S Nassau, so a coastal
flood warning was issued for both areas for Sunday morning.
Water levels farther east into the Great South Bay should at
least reach minor thresholds due to water sloshing eastward.
Minor flooding also expected on all other remaining coastlines
including the lower Hudson.
For the oceanfront, a forecast 8-11 ft surf (highest east across
Suffolk County) will likely cause scattered dune erosion Sunday
morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Flood Watch until 9 AM EST Sunday for CTZ005>012.
Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for CTZ009.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Sunday for
CTZ009>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for CTZ010>012.
NY...Flood Watch until 9 AM EST Sunday for NYZ067>071.
Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ071-073-080-
176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Sunday for NYZ071-
073-176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ072-
074-075-178.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for
NYZ072-074-075.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for NYZ078-079-
081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ078-
079.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ080-
081.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for NYZ178-
179.
Coastal Flood Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...Flood Watch until 9 AM EST Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ006-
104-106-108.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Sunday for
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-340-345-353-355.
Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ332-350.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ335.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ338.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JE/Goodman
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Goodman