000
FXUS61 KOKX 100608
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
108 AM EST Sun Mar 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will pass across the New York City Metropolitan
Area overnight on its way to Main by Sunday afternoon. High
pressure to the south will then in control through Tuesday. A
frontal system may stall nearby for mid week, before lifting
north as a warm front late Thursday and Friday. Another frontal
system will follow on Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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The rain is ending from SW to NE. An additional shwr is possible
behind the main area of rain, but amounts will be light.

Rainfall totals will range between 1-2 inches with locally
higher amounts. Flood watch continues for all but NYC and Long
Island. There will be a chance of flooding along some of the
rivers and streams across the watch area due to antecedent wet
soils and the anticipated rain totals. Across Long Island, we
are generally looking at a potential for minor/poor drainage
flooding tonight.

SE winds will lighten with the passage of the low, then with wly
component winds developing as the low tracks away. Speeds thru
12Z on the back side of the low should remain blw 25kt.

Temps mainly in the 40s and 50s for the rest of the ngt, with a
few 30s across Orange county.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Not too much change in the short term period.

Sunday will be the start of a period of strong W to NW winds.
Direction will be more W on Sun, then veer to the NW Sunday
night as winds aloft also increase. The brisk conditions on Sun
will strengthen Sunday night, with 850mb winds around 50 kt on
Monday. Deep mixing is likely in this pattern. Wind advisory
headlines seem likely on Monday, but its still a tad early right
now for headlines. The winds will likely keep wind chills from
getting out of the 30s.

A large upper level low passes over the region late Sunday and
Sunday night. As it does, expect some additional cloud cover.
Also, with the substantial cold pool aloft, dpva, and even some
sbcape, kept a 30 PoP in the forecast. Expect a chance of snow
and rain showers. Can not rule out some ice pellets as well.
Temps fall late in the afternoon, with dewpoints dropping into
the 20s.

High temps on Sunday will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

While Monday will feel chilly due to the wind, high
temperatures are expected to be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Winds diminish Monday night into Tuesday morning.

* A warming trend takes place.

The upper level low gets further to the northeast and well up
into the Canadian Maritimes Monday night and into Tuesday
morning. This will lead to a diminishing of the winds.
Afterwards for midweek, in response to the digging and
amplification of the upstream trough over the Rockies a ridge
builds across the East. This will lead to a warming trend with
temperatures averaging well above normal for the mid and late
week period with dry conditions.

The trough will approach late in the week and likely bring
another round of unsettled weather in the form of rain late
Friday and Saturday with the arrival of low pressure and its
associated occluded / cold front. There are differences in
timing and in the handling of the Pacific branch and any
potential interaction with the pure southern branch of the jet.
Thus chose to take a consensus blend, which the NBM seemed
reasonable with respect to PoPs for Friday and Saturday.

The greatest deal of uncertainty deals with temperatures for
Wednesday through Friday. By Thursday max temperatures are
likely to get into the 60s across a good portion of the area,
particularly away from the coast. If more of a westerly
component to the wind develops closer to the surface, then
temperatures could get even warmer than currently advertised.
Some 70s therefore are a possibility away from the coast later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Deepening low pressure, moving through central New Jersey at 05Z
overnight, moves into the region overnight, and then to the north
and east on Sunday.

The steady rain will be ending from west to east over the next
couple of hours. Expect IFR to occasionally MVFR conditions.
Once the steady rain ends periods of showers will be possible
into early morning.

An occasional rumble of thunder remains possible, mainly east of the
NYC terminals, until 08Z, but not confident enough to include in the
TAFs.

Widespread improvement to MVFR and then VFR expected toward morning,
with the passage of an occluded front. There is a low chance
that MVFR conditions persist into late morning. There may be
some residual scattered rain or snow showers Sunday afternoon
into late evening which may result in brief MVFR conditions.

Winds will be highly variable the next several hours as low
pressure tracks across the NYC terminals and across western CT.
Highest winds will be along the coast, varying from southerly
across LI, but with a more an easterly component across the CT
coast. There may even be a brief period of winds becoming light
and variable overnight. Winds will then shift to the west from
about 08Z for the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC terminals, to as
late as 12Z at KGON. Winds will gradually ramp up with the
strongest winds and gusts late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening, with gusts mostly around 35 kt, and occasionally near
40 kt.

LLWS at the NYC metro terminals has ended, with LLWS to the east
through 10Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely overnight to refine timing of ending of rain
and possibly flight category changes.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night: VFR. W/NW winds 20-25kt G30-35kt, occasionally 35-
40kt.

Monday: VFR. W/NW winds 20-25kt gusts near 35-40kt.

Monday night: VFR. NW winds near 20 kt in the evening with gusts up
to 25-30 kt, eventually decreasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25kt
late.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.

Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Gales in effect for all waters except wrn Long Island Sound.
For Sunday, the gales go away and will need to be replaced with
Small Craft headlines. There may be a period on the non-ocean
waters where conditions fall below SCA. However, winds and seas
increase again Sunday night into Monday. Gale watches remain in
effect for all waters on Monday. Ocean seas will remain 8-11 ft
through Monday.

Gales will give way to small craft conditions Monday night as
the winds begin to diminish. Any small craft conditions early
on Tuesday should give way to sub small craft conditions for
late Tuesday. More tranquil conditions are expected towards
Wednesday and much of Thursday with light winds and ocean seas
closer to 2 ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Around 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected to fall through
tonight, with the higher amts north and west of NYC. There will
be the chance of flash flooding, primarily along the smaller
rivers and streams due to antecedent wet soils and the
anticipated rain totals. The heaviest rainfall is expected
this evening into the early morning hours of Sunday. Otherwise,
mainly minor/poor drainage flooding will be possible tonight.

There are no hydrologic concerns Sunday night through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels continue to subside across Long Island Sound and
flooding will come to an end for this high tide cycle in the
hour.

For Sunday morning: Still have concern with residual water
trapped in the south shore back bays of LI. This combined with a
a strengthening SW-W flow will result in water being sloshed
eastward into the Great South Bays, and that water levels
elsewhere will be higher than than the Stevens 50th percentile.
Took a 2:1 blend of the Stevens 95th and 50th percentile
forecasts, and nudged that toward PETSS 50th percentile guidance
on the Long Island south shore bays where higher.

This forecast results in moderate flooding for Jamaica Bay (S
Queens portion) and another round for S Nassau, so a coastal
flood warning remains in effect for both areas for Sunday
morning. Water levels farther east into the Great South Bay
should at least reach minor thresholds due to water sloshing
eastward. Minor flooding also expected on all other remaining
coastlines including the lower Hudson.

For the oceanfront, a forecast 8-11 ft surf (highest east across
Suffolk County) will likely cause scattered dune erosion Sunday
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Flood Watch until 9 AM EST this morning for CTZ005>012.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this
     afternoon for CTZ009>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     CTZ010-011.
NY...Flood Watch until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ067>071.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ071-073-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this
     afternoon for NYZ071-073-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ080-081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ072-074-075.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ078-079.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for NYZ078-079.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for NYZ080-081.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ178-179.
NJ...Flood Watch until 9 AM EST this morning for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
     NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EST early this morning for ANZ331-340-
     345-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ332-350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ335.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ338.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Monday evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/BG
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...BC/JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW