000
FXUS61 KOKX 101148
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks away from the area and into Maine today.
High pressure builds into the Southeast on Mon, and over the
Atlc on Tue. A frontal system may impact the area by the end of
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery revealed an upr low near Detroit this mrng.
This feature will track towards the area today, with the h5 low
reaching the cwa around 00Z. The models are in good agreement
with this.
MSAS analyzed a 992 low over RI at 10Z. This low will track
into ME today. The models are in good agreement with that as
well.
Although some pockets of mainly light rain will attempt to
develop and rotate thru the cwa as radar indicates early this
mrng, the deep moisture has exited well to the E limiting the
potential. Subsidence will begin to inhibit development aft 12Z.
The next round of pcpn is then this aftn and eve as the airmass
becomes unstable and the upr low approaches then tracks over
the area. Maintained the sct wording in the fcst. Shwrs possibly
transitioning to shsn with some ice pellets possible as well.
Cannot rule out isold lightning strikes.
Dropping temps late in the day with increasing W winds. H85
winds increase thru the day, reaching about 40kt by 00Z Mon.
Sct-bkn clouds in the 4000-5000ft range should be a limiting
factor for gust potential. As a result, expect winds to remain
blw advy lvls today.
Winds aloft gradually increase Sun ngt, but time of day and
remaining high based low clouds should be at least subtle
limiting factors. Have not issues a wind advy as a result.
Temps today a mix of the NBM and NAMnest. The NBM was used tngt.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds aloft increase further on Mon. By 00Z Tues, the NAM
indicates over 60 kt at H85. With a well mixed and deep NW flow
along with strong subsidence, this should set the table for
over-performance of winds. Because of this, a high wind watch
has been issued for the entire area.
Despite the cold airmass, the deep mixing will allow for highs
aoa normal. Wind chills however mainly in the 30s for the day.
The NBM was used for temps.
Ridging then begins to build in late Mon ngt into Tue. This
will allow for the winds to finally begin to come down after
midnight.
For Tue, lighter winds and the start of a warming trend can be
expected. After wind chills Mon ngt in the 20s and lower 30s,
the NBM yields highs in the lower 60s for the usual swrn hot
spots. These numbers were accepted for the fcst.
Dry wx Mon-Tue.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* A warming trend takes place.
For midweek, in response to the digging and amplification of
the upstream trough over the Rockies a ridge builds across the
East. This will lead to a warming trend with temperatures
averaging well above normal for the mid and late week period
with dry conditions.
The trough will approach late in the week and likely bring
another round of unsettled weather in the form of rain late
Friday and Saturday with the arrival of low pressure and its
associated occluded / cold front. There are differences in
timing and in the handling of the Pacific branch and any
potential interaction with the pure southern branch of the jet.
Thus chose to take a consensus blend, which the NBM seemed
reasonable with respect to PoPs for Friday and Saturday.
The greatest deal of uncertainty deals with temperatures for
Wednesday through Friday. By Thursday max temperatures are
likely to get into the 60s across a good portion of the area,
particularly away from the coast. If more of a westerly
component to the wind develops closer to the surface, then
temperatures could get even warmer than currently advertised.
Some 70s therefore are a possibility away from the coast later
in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deepening low pressure lifts north of the area this morning and
up into northern New England by this evening. The low will
track slowly east tonight into Monday.
Ceilings will improve to VFR for most locations this morning,
but possibly taking as long as early afternoon for KGON. There
will be a chance of brief MVFR conditions this afternoon into
early this evening in scattered rain and/or snow showers.
Winds shift to the WNW this morning and gradually ramp up
through tonight, with the strongest winds and gusts coming
tonight with gusts mostly around 35 kt, and occasionally near
40 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are likely this morning to refine timing of improving
flight categories.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR. W/NW winds 20-25kt gusts near 35-40kt. A few gusts
45-50kt possible,
Monday night: VFR. NW winds near 20 kt in the evening with gusts up
to 40 kt, eventually decreasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25kt
late.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.
Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Solid sca winds can be expected today, increasing to gale tngt
and remaining thru Mon ngt. There is the potential for a few
gusts to storm force on Mon. Winds and seas subside Tue, with
all waters blw sca criteria by Tue ngt.
More tranquil conditions are expected towards Wednesday and
much of Thursday with light winds and ocean seas closer to 2 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Although any pcpn amounts will be light today, some residual
flooding of rivers and streams can be expected.
No hydrologic impacts are expected tngt thru Fri.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The upcoming high tide cycle this morning will mark the last of
the coastal flooding. Coastal flood Warnings for southern
Nassau and southern Queens have been converted to an advisory,
and advisories for Long Island Sound have been dropped.
Advisories are in effect for areas adjacent to NY Harbor,
including tidally affected rivers (Hackensack, Passaic, and
locations along the Hudson), and all of the south shore of Long
Island.
A westerly flow should help to lower water levels across Long
Island Sound, however, with a SE swell and high seas on the
ocean, water will struggle to get out of NY Harbor and the south
shore back bays of Long Island. There is always some uncertainty
with the extent of this type of flooding as trapped water sloshes
around in the bays and harbor. Preference at this time was to
lean toward an ETSS and NYHOPS mean. The PETSS seems to be on
the high side of guidance in a strengthening west flow. However,
there is still the chance for localized moderate flooding
across the south shore back bays, in particular across southern
Nassau County.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
CTZ005>012.
NY...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ072-
074-075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
NYZ080-081.
NJ...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NJZ006-
104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW